On October 24, the Sixth Session of the 14th National People's Congress closed, and the ammunition for the fourth quarter was finally in place, which also opened the charge of China's economic counterattack.
The meeting approved the issuance of 1 trillion yuan of central treasury bonds and the issuance of 2.7 trillion yuan of new local government bonds in advance. Look at the charge of the economy
from four angles.
One trillion yuan of special treasury bonds.
According to the budget at the beginning of the year, the local general public budget expenditure was 23674 billion yuan, an increase of 5.2%, while the actual expenditure in the first three quarters of this year was only 17123.1 billion yuan, an increase of only 3.5% over the same period last year.
Originally, this year's budget was deliberately left to the fourth quarter, so that the local general public budget expenditure in the fourth quarter increased by 10% year-on-year.
The trillion special treasury bonds require 500 billion yuan to be spent in the fourth quarter of this year, which means that the growth rate of local general public budget expenditure in the fourth quarter will explode to 18.3% year-on-year, and China will usher in a fourth quarter completely different from this year's style.
Two, 2.7 trillion local debt.
Even in 2021, when the global epidemic broke out, and in 2022, when Omicron broke out, the special quota issued by the central government in advance was less than 50% of the previous year, and only in 2020, when the epidemic broke out, the quota was raised to 60%. Two years
later, the central government raised the quota of special debt issued in advance in 2023 to 60% again, that is, 2.7 trillion yuan (43 million yuan of general debt and 2.28 trillion yuan of special debt), indicating that China will once again stimulate the economy with the financial strength at the beginning of the outbreak of the epidemic.
Three, a 4% debt ceiling.
According to the internationally accepted Maastricht Treaty, the government deficit rate is generally set at 3%, and
China has always controlled the deficit rate within 3%. Even if the epidemic breaks out in 2020, it will only be arranged according to 3.6%.
The trillion-dollar national debt will bring the national fiscal deficit rate from 3% to 4% in 2023, surpassing the epidemic in 2020, indicating that China is determined to stimulate the economy this time. It is not
even ruled out that the upper limit of the deficit rate will continue to be raised from 3% to 4% next year. Total debt of 3.2 trillion yuan in the
fourth and fourth quarters. Of
the trillion special treasury bonds, 500 billion will be used in the fourth quarter of this year, and 60% of the 24-year local debt will be issued ahead of schedule, totaling 2.7 trillion.
This means that this round of meetings has brought 3.2 trillion new funds to the fourth quarter, making the Chinese government the richest "landlord" in the world in the fourth quarter of this year.
With the opening of the debt ceiling by the National People's Congress, China's import and export markets are also opening simultaneously. During
the conference, Australia, China's main importer of resources, announced that it had concluded the security review of the Darwin Port project and that it had reached a consensus with China on the WTO dispute. Prime Minister Albanese will visit China from November 4 to 7.
This means that Australia's rich coal and iron ore will become the fuel for China's new round of infrastructure construction, competing with the emerging resource countries that have just visited the Belt and Road to compete for China's super orders.
After getting the raw materials, it is natural to open up the market for the strong Chinese manufacturing.
With the official announcement of the two National Committees today, China's foreign strategy has entered a new stage, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Finance have also officially announced two important news.
On October 24, the China-US Economic Working Group held its first meeting by video. The two sides had in-depth, Frank and constructive exchanges on the macroeconomic situation and policies of the two countries and the world, bilateral economic relations, and cooperation in addressing global challenges.
On October 24, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Mao Ning announced that Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister, will visit the United States from October 26 to 28 at the invitation of US Secretary of State Blinken.
Army did not move, hay first.
Just as the delay in Israel's March into Gaza after the assembly of its army is due to the delay in the appropriation of funds by the US Congress, China's economic and employment pressures have increased sharply this year because the National People's Congress has not given local governments as much ammunition as it did during the epidemic.
Now, with the National People's Congress approving 3.2 trillion of new funds in the fourth quarter, the curtain of China's economic stimulus campaign has officially opened. The meeting between
China and Australia provides cheap raw materials for China's economic stimulus action, and the meeting between China and the United States provides a broad market for China's economic stimulus action.
The state will solve the problems of raw materials and markets one after another, and then hand them over to the market and the most competitive Chinese enterprises in the world.
With the global trade cycle broken by Trump being repaired and the government mobilizing resources to stimulate, domestic economic data will also usher in a strong rebound, and China will shine brilliantly in the next dark global economy.
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