in the global market supply in the future. 2. Photovoltaic glass production capacity and output will continue to grow, and the utilization rate of production capacity will increase
rapidly by the end of December 2022. There are 37 photovoltaic rolled glass enterprises in production (according to the statistics of the Group). Excluding the invalid capacity, there are currently 442 lines with 128 kilns in production, and the total capacity is about t/d 84299. Among them, the capacity of kilns in production is about t/d 79389, an increase of 84.4% over the same period last year; The capacity utilization rate is 94.
53.3%. With the acceleration of production expansion and stable cost, the structural shortage of glass products will be alleviated
. The number of hearings on photovoltaic rolled glass production line projects has reached a new high, and the new production capacity has continued to increase. In the notice issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on the Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in Cement Glass Industry, it is stipulated that "photovoltaic rolled glass projects may not formulate capacity replacement plans, but need to hold hearings and announce project information". In response to this policy, from March to December 2022, 130 hearings on photovoltaic rolled glass production line projects were commissioned by provinces and municipalities throughout the country, involving 334 kilns with a capacity of 369869 t/d. These capacities will be released in 2022-2024. In 2022, the cost of photovoltaic glass was relatively stable except for the price of high-purity quartz sand, which continued to rise, and the price of liquefied natural gas was slightly lower than that of last year. In 2022, the supply of soda ash market remained in a tight balance, and the amplitude of the domestic soda ash market price was larger in the first half of the year and gradually narrowed in the second half of the year. The supply of photovoltaic rolled glass products tends to be stable.
2. Development
of photovoltaic bracket 1. Cost proportion
of photovoltaic bracket in photovoltaic power generation system Photovoltaic bracket is a special bracket designed for placing, installing and fixing solar panels in solar power generation system. Depending on different application scenarios, the cost of bracket system (including foundation) and installation accounts for about 12% -18% of the investment cost of power plants, and has an important impact on the life and power generation efficiency of photovoltaic power generation system. In 2022, due to the rising price of components, the cost of other systems will decrease, and the cost of support system (including foundation) and installation will account for about 10% -12% of the investment cost of power plants. Compared with fixed bracket and offshore wind power,
the cost of tracking bracket is the lowest, and the use of tracking bracket will still be the best choice. In addition, the tracking bracket has better economy, the tracking bracket is used to replace the fixed bracket, and higher internal rate of return of the project can be obtained through the gain of power generation, and the tracking bracket is suitable for more provinces, especially for areas with high direct radiation ratio and high radiation. Compared
with 2022, the proportion of tracking brackets in the power plant system will return to the previous level in 2023. In the future, the price of components will show a gradual downward trend, while the cost of tracking brackets in the photovoltaic power plant system will increase by 3-5%. In terms of the proportion of localization of power plant systems, the localization rate of components and inverters has reached more than 90%, and only the tracking bracket is still in the pattern of overseas manufacturers occupying the main market.
% of the investment cost. Manufacturing cost and price status
of photovoltaic bracket The manufacturing cost of bracket includes raw materials, galvanizing cost, labor cost and manufacturing cost. The cost structure of the tracking bracket is roughly the same as that of the fixed bracket. The raw materials account for a large proportion in the cost composition of the two brackets, reaching 65.29% and 72% respectively. At the same time, the driving part of the tracking bracket is added, and the electric control box and the rotary reducer are added correspondingly in the cost items, accounting for 12.05% and 9% of the total cost respectively. Steel and aluminum are the main raw materials. The proportion of raw materials is generally more than 50%. According to the calculation of 40000 tons of steel bracket used in 1GW photovoltaic power station, if the price of steel rises by 1000 yuan per ton, the cost of single watt bracket will rise by
0.3. The
global tracking bracket market is characterized by unbalanced regional development, with the demand of ground photovoltaic power station as the main factor. The market demand is mainly concentrated in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Latin America and other places, and the North American market accounts for about 50% of the total tracking stent market all the year round. From 2020 to 2022, the tracking stent market in North America, Latin America and Europe accounted for about 65% of the global market, but it decreased in 2022. In 2022, affected by the policy, the photovoltaic installed capacity in the United States decreased by 20% compared with 2021; in Europe, affected by the war between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the energy shortage and other factors, the photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 60%; in the Chinese market, stimulated by the large base policy, the installed capacity of ground power stations increased by 56% compared with 2021, and the market share of tracking system also maintained a high level of about 12%. Despite the gradual liberalization of the epidemic and the stabilization of shipping prices, which gradually fell back to the pre-epidemic level, the higher component prices still delayed the start of a large number of ground power station projects, which is also the reason why the growth rate of the tracking bracket market in 2022 is not as expected. The application of tracking brackets in
China can be traced back to the forerunner project, but the quality and reliability of early tracking brackets are different, which makes the early projects fail frequently, and some owners have a poor impression of tracking brackets. In contrast to the overseas market, NEXTracker, Array Technologies, PV Hardware and other foreign leading enterprises started earlier, experienced a series of tests and the precipitation of technology and projects, and their products entered a mature period, occupying the leading position of tracking stents for a long time. From the perspective of global shipments in recent years, tracking stent companies are more in line with the trend of localization, and the leading tracking stent companies in global shipments are gathered in the United States (5), Europe (6) and China (3). Moreover, there is still a certain gap between Chinese tracking bracket enterprises and international brands, but with the implantation of UHV lines and "photovoltaic +" scenarios in the next few years, it will certainly drive Chinese tracking bracket enterprises to narrow the gap with overseas head enterprises.
From the perspective of the domestic market, as the tracking bracket can significantly increase the power generation, according to the current cost of the tracking bracket, the installation of the tracking system in the ground photovoltaic power station projects in more than 20 provinces and cities in China has a good economy. With the continuous decrease of the cost of the tracking bracket and the continuous maturity of the technology and products of the domestic tracking bracket enterprises, the market share of the tracking bracket in China will show a steady upward trend. According to the China < a href = "https://www.databm.2023 Year", with the steady progress and timely grid connection of the domestic large bases, the market share of the tracking bracket in China will be steadily increased. This will also accelerate the popularization and application of the tracking bracket.
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