This speech conveyed a full chill to the photovoltaic people.
However, as Li Zhenguo said, is the capacity of the photovoltaic industry really excessive? According to the statistics released by the National Energy Administration, in 2021, China's new grid-connected installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation was 54.88 GW, and in 2022, it increased by 58.9% year-on-year, and the new installed capacity reached 87.
The hot demand downstream made the supply of silicon wafers in short supply for a time, and the price rose. In just over a year, the price of silicon wafers has risen by as much as 400%. The gross profit margin of more than 30% of the industry has attracted a large number of new players. The production capacity that
can't wait to start is mainly used for the production of P-type monocrystalline silicon wafers. According to CPIA statistics, more than 90% of the global silicon wafer production capacity is concentrated in China. According to Grassroots Photovoltaic, up to now, the silicon wafer production capacity of Chinese enterprises has reached 1049.
In 2021, when the industry broke out, the application of P-type silicon wafers was the most mature and the demand was the largest at that time. The silicon wafer production line generally takes 12 months to 15 months from project approval to construction and production. Therefore, from the second half of 2022, the P-type production capacity announced in 2021 has been completed one after another, and then a barrier lake of production capacity has been formed. According to public information statistics, up to now, the domestic production capacity of P-type silicon wafers has exceeded 800 GW.
From the demand side, China Photovoltaic Industry Association and Capital Securities forecast that the new global photovoltaic installed capacity in 2023 is expected to be 350 GW, and the domestic installed capacity will increase by 46% year-on-year to 130 GW. Statistics and Forecast
of PV Installed Capacity
in China Source: China Photovoltaic Industry Association and Capital Securities Research Institute
By the end of 2022, the market share of monocrystalline silicon wafers (P-type + N-type) has reached 97.5%, and there is a trend to further occupy polycrystalline silicon wafers. It may be assumed that the proportion of monocrystalline silicon wafers installed in 2023 is 97.
If the capacity ratio of 1: 1.25 is calculated, the demand for monocrystalline silicon wafers in the global photovoltaic industry in 2023 will be 426.6GW, while the demand in China in the same period will be about 158.
On the one hand, the production capacity of P-type silicon wafers will exceed 800GW. On the other hand, the total global demand for silicon wafers in 2023 is only 400 GW, less than half of the capacity. There is a huge scissors gap between supply and demand. The fact of overcapacity of P-type silicon wafers is a certainty. In contrast
, N-type silicon wafers are in short supply. The limit efficiency and mass production efficiency
of N-type are higher than those of P-type, and the substitution of N-type for P-type has been accelerating in the past two years. The market forecast is that the market share of N-type will reach 25% in 2023. Market share of
N-type monocrystalline silicon wafers in
China Source: China Business Industry Research Institute
It is estimated that the global installed demand for N-type monocrystalline silicon wafers will be 106.7 GW in 2023. The installed demand for N-type monocrystalline silicon wafers in China is 39.
At the same time, TOPCon batteries using N-type silicon wafers are the "fragrant baboon" in the current photovoltaic market, so many battery manufacturers are increasing their layout.
According to Polaris tracking statistics, by the end of 2023, only 14 TOP battery component companies will have a total N-type battery capacity of more than 400GW. This year, TOPCon battery shipments are expected to reach 160 GW. The existing high-quality production capacity
of N-type silicon wafers is less than 200 GW, and the rapid expansion of downstream N-type cell production capacity has brought strong support to the demand for N-type monocrystalline silicon wafers.
In addition to P-type total overcapacity, there are many new players pouring in during the outbreak of the industry, who have no precipitation and strength in technology and can not produce high-quality, high-yield products. This part of "inferior production capacity" is not in the minority.
It can be seen that the excess photovoltaic capacity can be said to be structural. The surplus is concentrated in some P-type production capacity, the original backward production capacity and the inferior production capacity of new players without technology precipitation.
Due to the structural overcapacity of P type, the industry is rolling up crazily and the price war continues.
According to Antaike's quotation, as of May 29, the price of P-type M10150 μm monocrystalline silicon wafers was reduced from 6.3 yuan to 4.36 yuan, a drop of 30.1
yuan on June 1. TCL Zhonghuan (002129.
Quotation
of TCL Zhonghuan on June 1, 2023 SRC = "https://chinaventure-static.obs.cn-north-1.myhuaweicloud.com/newsContent/375911/7079998292754434.2022
May" On the 19th, TCL Zhonghuan launched N-type silicon wafers, the thickness of which was reduced to 130 microns. In March this year, according to the quotation of TCL Central Silicon Wafer, N-type silicon wafer has been thinned to 110 microns again, and its price is lower than that of P-type silicon wafer, thus realizing the same price of NP.
the present stage," TCL Zhonghuan, Trina Solar (688599.sh), JinkoSolar (688223.sh) and Jingao Technology (002459) have been formed. According to public information statistics, the total production capacity of N-type silicon wafers of these five enterprises is more than 140GW. Compared
with Trina Solar, Jinko Energy and other N-type dark horses, as well as the quiet layout of TCL Central, Longji Green Energy's action on N-type is obviously several beats slower.
In 2020, the downstream demand is strong, and the price of silicon wafers is rising. Longji Green Energy enjoys the high profit brought by the production of P-type production capacity, and accelerates the launch of many P-type production capacity. According to statistics, from 2020 to 2022, Longji Green Energy's new production capacity of P-type silicon wafers completed and put into operation exceeds 40 GW. On January 10,
2023, Longji Green Energy announced that it would change the "Xixian Leye 15GW High-efficiency Monocrystalline Battery Project" to "Xixian Leye 29GW High-efficiency Monocrystalline Battery Project", and the battery technology route was HPBC (Composite Passivation Back Contact Battery), specializing in the distributed photovoltaic market. P-type monocrystalline silicon wafers are still used in HPBC batteries. In June
2023, Longji Green Energy announced that it would invest about 12.5 billion yuan in Xi'an Economic and Technological Development Zone to build 24 GW monocrystalline batteries and supporting projects with an annual output of 20 GW monocrystalline silicon rods. Although Longji did not specify the technology used in monocrystalline batteries, the new project will probably use HPBC battery technology according to the expansion of Xixianleye project in January 2023.
It is expected that by the end of 2023, the maximum N-type production capacity of Lonkey will reach 30GW; at this time, the total silicon wafer production capacity of Lonkey is expected to reach 190GW, with N-type accounting for less than 16%.
To promote industry shuffling
, in the face of overcapacity and the consequent decline in product prices, the usual operation of manufacturers is to adjust production capacity by volume premium.
Volume premium refers to the reduction of depreciation and amortization by increasing production, thus reducing the unit fixed cost FC, and at the same time reducing the unit labor in variable cost VC. That is to say, by increasing production and sales to hedge the negative impact of the decline in sales price p.
But can this approach really work in the photovoltaic industry?
More importantly, can P-tap really mitigate or clear over-saturated P-tap capacity by adjusting the operating rate?
Obviously, these two premises are not satisfied with the photovoltaic industry at this time.
First of all, the PV industry is not in a mature period at present, but in a painful shuffling period after rapid growth and superimposed technology upgrading, and the products are still in continuous iteration. Secondly, the product differences among silicon wafer manufacturers are an important source of their competitiveness. A simple volume-based premium strategy may not work.
For the head enterprises, there is a positive correlation between the strategy effect of volume premium and the base of operating rate, which is also applicable. According to the weekly report of Silicon Branch, at the end of 2022, the P-type production capacity of leading enterprises has been hovering around 60% due to lower demand, which is in a low state. After a rebound
in April and May this year, by late May, most enterprises still planned to reduce production on the basis of the original 80% -90% operating rate. If the base of operating rate is too low, the effect of exchanging price by quantity will be greatly reduced, and the strategy of exchanging price by quantity will be almost ineffective.
In order to ensure the stability of products, silicon wafer factories and battery factories generally have a stable purchasing and marketing relationship, and it is generally difficult for external manufacturers to squeeze in.
Nowadays, many tail enterprises are facing the difficult situation of lack of working capital or no orders for production. These production capacity and enterprises can not escape the fate of being cleared quickly. Holding a huge amount of funds, the leader can breathe little, and have spare capacity to rectify and correct errors, or re-plan layout.
The author believes that Li Zhenguo's "empty industry" may be intended to speed up the elimination of P-type backward production capacity and small enterprises with weak comprehensive capacity, and to promote the progress of industry shuffling; at the same time, to guide customer orders to further concentrate on the head, in order to ease the operating pressure of the head P-type enterprises.
Of course, the replacement of old and new, metabolism, this situation has always been there. When
new forces disrupt
the industry's capacity clearance, a large number of companies continue to die, but there are also powerful new stars rising.
These new rivals are not the incompetent people who blindly followed the trend in the past few years, and have brought a lot of pressure to the leaders in R & D, sales and other links. Although they can not subvert their position for the time being, they are strong rivals to grab the leading market cake.
For example, Gaojing Solar Energy, which has just disclosed its prospectus and hit the GEM IPO, and Huayao Optoelectronics, whose net profit has increased 88 times in the past two years. Founded in 2019
, Gaojing Solar Energy is jointly incubated by Zhuhai State-owned Assets and IDG Capital, with a strong shareholder background. Xu Zhiqun, the chairman and general manager of the company, was the vice president of Jingke Energy Holding Co., Ltd. and is a veteran of the photovoltaic industry for nearly 30 years, with rich industrial background and resources.
In 2022, the revenue of Gaojing Solar Energy, which has been established for only four years, has exceeded 17.5 billion yuan, and its pre-listing valuation has reached 20 billion yuan. The company and Aixu Stock (600732.sh), Tongwei Stock (600438.sh), Runyang Stock (300920.SZ), Junda Co., Ltd. (002865)
Cooperated with
Gaojing Solar Energy SRC = "https://chinaventure-static.obs.cn-north-1.myhuaweicloud.com/newsContent/375911/7079998292754440.
and" Runaway "Jinko Similar to Xu Zhiqun, a senior energy executive, Xun Jianhua, chairman of Huayao Optoelectronics, has been in charge of Yijing Optoelectronics for 14 years, and also has many years of experience in operation and management in the photovoltaic field.
Yijing Optoelectronics is mainly engaged in photovoltaic cell preparation, module packaging and photovoltaic power generation, while Huayao Optoelectronics is engaged in research and development, production and sales of monocrystalline silicon rods and wafers. In just over three years, Huayao Optoelectronics has formed a production capacity of about 11 GW monocrystalline silicon rods and 9 GW monocrystalline silicon wafers. In the past two years, the compound growth rate of revenue has reached 494%, and the net profit has increased 88 times. After
experiencing explosive growth, the photovoltaic track is crowded, and shuffling, clearing and restructuring are the only way. A large number of inferior production capacity will be forced to shut down, while the head enterprises continue to expand production. After clearing, there will be more changes in the concentration of the head. The emergence of
strong rivals not only makes the leading enterprises feel pressure, but also promotes the leading enterprises to further improve and change in technology, products and services, and promotes the renewal and development of the industry.
Although the liquidation process is painful, it does not change the future development trend of the industry. The pace of the new forces "changing the fate of the old forces" and replacing the old with a new generation has never stagnated.
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