水泥产量同比增长,为何需求却在走弱?

2023-06-26 17:03:45

从数据上看,今年1-5月水泥产量增幅接近2%的水平,产量如此增加,是需求比同期有所好转吗?

受多重因素影响,2022年水泥需求不振,水泥产量也创近11年来新低。

前不久,国家统计局公布了2023年1-5月的经济数据,其中1-5月水泥产量为7.7亿吨,同比增长1.9%。从数据上看,今年1-5月水泥产量增幅接近2%的水平,产量如此增加,是需求比同期有所好转吗?

中国水泥网·水泥大数据研究院水泥分析师李坤明表示,水泥需求并没有好转,反而相对较弱。

李坤明指出,统计数据出现增长,可能有多方面的原因,其中一点便是数据的统计口径问题。统计局公布的是可比口径数据,由于规模以上工业企业范围每年都在发生变化,为了保证本年数据与上年可比,计算产品产量等各项指标同比增长速度所采用的同期数与本期的企业统计范围相一致,这和上年公布的数据存在口径差异。

由于今年以来市场较差,水泥企业的亏损面扩大,一部分竞争力低、效益差的企业由于营业规模下降幅度较大或者退出市场而被剔除统计范畴,这导致同期基数偏低,从而使水泥产量同比出现增加。

李坤明认为,绝对产量更能反映真实的需求问题。按照全口径数据,去年1-5月的水泥产量是7.8亿吨,而今年则是7.7亿吨,实际上水泥产量同比下降了1.5%。也就是说,仅从产量上看,水泥需求也是在萎缩的。

不止是产量,多项数据的变动都反映了水泥需求偏弱的事实。本周三,在“分享汇·建材一周谈”水泥网APP视频号线上直播中,李坤明将深入分析产量、投资、库存等多项数据,探讨日后水泥行情走势。  

此外,中国水泥网·水泥大数据研究院砂石分析师祝萧芸也将在直播中针对近期砂石行业的行情发展态势进行深入分析与探讨。  

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Correlation

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