Shandong electric power market during the May Day holiday from the aspects of policy, market and system. Besides reading and learning, they have also exchanged with many friends in the industry. Here are some thoughts and sharing from the perspective of industry trends.
Small event, black swan
From the perspective of total volume, the trading volume affected by this negative electricity price accounts for a very small proportion of the total market volume; from the perspective of time, the negative electricity price accounts for a very small proportion of the annual trading time.
So from the matter itself, it is a small Case. However, the negative electricity price of Shandong spot is a black swan event, which will bring about drastic changes in the concept of new energy.
Big Impact: The End
of the Concept of Certainty The power system used to be a highly deterministic system. Even today, when a large number of new energy sources are connected to the grid, everyone still pursues a high degree of certainty.
The load is determined, and load forecasting, load control and other means are needed.
Power generation is determined, even if it is wind power dispatching should be planned, based on the prediction of both sides of the source-load, balance the power and form the operation plan of the power grid.".
Therefore, to some extent, the emergence of negative electricity price is also a predictable probability event at least for dispatching.
In the mature electricity market, whether it is negative electricity price, zero electricity price, or extremely high cutting-edge electricity price, it is a common thing.
However, in the conceptual dimension, the negative electricity price is an out-and-out black swan event, which has changed the concept of many Chinese people, especially the thinking pattern of electricity consumers: in the past, electricity was expensive, the electricity price was positive, and the electricity price rarely changed. When the electricity price of the deep valley appeared in the spot market of
Shandong Electric Power, a big electricity user raised three soul questions to the distributed photovoltaic investors:
1. The market price of these periods is far lower than photovoltaic price you gave me, why should I buy your electricity?
2. Why did you anchor the electricity price when you signed the contract, which was the previous catalogue sales price, instead of telling me that the market price would change dramatically in the future?
3. Can contract be re-signed? This is also in line with the basic law of economics: the more production, the lower the price.
Therefore, whether it is distributed photovoltaic or energy storage, or even energy-saving EMC projects, the business logic of the past has changed fundamentally.
Personally, I think this is the conceptual impact of negative electricity price as a black swan event and the underlying logical change of the industry. The underlying logic of
distributed photovoltaic storage has changed
the past distributed photovoltaic and distributed energy storage, and the underlying investment logic is
a "fixed income product of low-risk assets".
In the past, photovoltaic tariff anchored "catalogue sales tariff" and distributed energy storage tariff anchored "time-sharing tariff", both of which were determined when signing project contracts. The investment risk of
distributed photovoltaic is mainly variable cost control during the construction period, and the risk of electricity charge recovery during the operation period.
If the project assets and the project owners themselves have no major problems, and the risk of medium and long-term electricity cost recovery is low, then the discount of photovoltaic electricity price is a little more, and the yield is a little lower. The low risk and fixed income characteristics of
distributed photovoltaic are the reasons for attracting a large number of state-owned enterprises to invest.
The current situation of distributed energy storage is similar, as long as the user load curve is determined, based on the fixed peak-valley price difference and peak-valley period, the fixed charging and discharging arbitrage can be realized.
However, the price concept of electricity users is being educated and changed by the electricity market: the original electricity price in different periods will change, or even fluctuate violently, and the trend of future electricity price changes is uncertain.
For example, is the price of electricity really cheap in the middle of the night? After a large number of photovoltaic grid-connected, a deep valley appeared at 12 noon, but at about 23 o'clock in the middle of the night, there was a peak of power consumption, which was the result of superimposing the cooling load of residents and the charging load of electric vehicle.
Due to electric vehicle, especially the centralized power supply behavior of online car appointment after the evening peak (charging price began to discount), the peak power consumption appeared at 23 o'clock.
If the real-time electricity price reflects the relationship between supply and demand, this period should be the peak price.
So is the arbitrage strategy model of distributed energy storage charging late at night subverted. The era of
electricity has
changed, and most investors are averse to uncertainty, especially power companies. The underlying logic of the rapid development of new energy in the
past decade lies in
the certainty of the continuation of the traditional power system, which relies on multiple mechanisms such as priority power generation, government subsidies, full consumption, fixed electricity price and strong power grid to build a high degree of certainty in terms of reliability, economy and policy guarantee. For this certainty, a certain industry thinking pattern has even been formed.
Just like the real estate industry used to believe that house prices would not fall.
So to some extent, the development logic of new energy is highly similar to that of the real estate industry: the road is equal to the land, the electricity price is equal to the house price, the low-cost capital drive, the high leverage and high turnover, the operation of the project company, and the low-level operation.
But now, the market is constantly educating consumers that the certainty of the past has disappeared.
New energy strategy, from investment orientation to operation priority
, therefore, power new energy will change from strategy, to investment, to operation.
At the operational level, from the simple inspection and maintenance of distributed photovoltaic and energy storage in the past to the comprehensive energy trusteeship and overall intelligent operation, and even to the advanced operation mode of multi-project joint operation and multilateral realizatio n (partition electricity sales + virtual power plants + market-oriented transactions).
Summary: The certainty
of the uncertain era When the power market is liberalized, the impact of the concept becomes a black swan event, which brings great uncertainty to the original construction mode of the power new energy industry, and leads to changes in the valuation mode of the original new energy assets, and even leads to the revaluation of the entire industrial chain. Many keen new energy enterprises
have felt the change of customer side, and proposed to transform from a simple project developer to a comprehensive intelligent operator.
In the uncertainty of the spot market, the only certainty is that the demand of power users for safe, economic and low-carbon energy development remains unchanged. In the past, it was met by investment. In the future, it needs to combine the new triangular relationship of strategy-investment-operation to build new barriers to competition to meet the demand in depth.
Perhaps, this is the basic meaning of the new power system. Notice of
the meeting: In order to better explore the development of new energy technologies applicable to the marine environment, the 2nd Offshore New Energy Development Forum will be held in Jinan, Shandong Province on July 13, 2023. The conference will discuss the development space, cost and economy, key technology discussion and equipment selection of new offshore energy in conjunction with the competent energy departments of coastal provinces, marine energy experts, power investment enterprises, power design institutes and equipment manufacturers, so as to help achieve the goal of double carbon in China and promote the further development of marine energy.
浙公网安备33010802003254号