On June 26, the official of CITIC Construction Investment Securities released a research report that Gansu 4G W photovoltaic off-grid hydrogen production project started bidding, the scale of single hydrogen production reached a new high in China, the scale of bidding exceeded expectations, and the hydrogen energy sector entered a clear investment window period.
The original text is as follows:
Gansu: The bidding for the 4GW photovoltaic off-grid hydrogen production project has been launched, and the scale of single hydrogen production has reached a new high
in China. Based on the number of sets of hydrogen production equipment published in the bidding documents, it is estimated that the demand for electrolyzers is 23.8G W, and the corresponding green hydrogen production capacity is about 559,100 tons per year. The production capacity of a single project is about 28 times that of the largest bidding project in China (the planned production capacity of Sinopec Kuqa Phase I is 20,000 tons per year), and the average annual demand for electrolyzers is 4 times that of the target of shipment in 23 years, reaching the expected target of shipment in 25 years.
Based on the highly deterministic 4G W PV installed capacity, it is estimated that the green hydrogen production capacity will reach 100,000 tons/year, and the demand for alkaline electrolyzers is expected to reach 3.45 GW. The production capacity of a single project is about 5 times that of the previous largest bidding project in China, and the average annual demand for electrolyzers is 1.7 times that of the target of shipment in 23 years, reaching 41% of the expected target of shipment in 25 years.
Inner Mongolia: The second batch of wind and solar hydrogen storage projects was launched, and 23H2 is expected to start the third/fourth batch of project construction
. The project of integrated synthesis of green ammonia from wind and solar hydrogen production in Etuoke Banner was launched, which is the first demonstration project of the second batch of wind and solar hydrogen production in Ordos City. It is expected to further drive the construction of the remaining 70% of the second batch of production capacity. At the same time, according to the second batch of approval and start-up rhythm, it is expected that 23H2 will continue to start the third/fourth batch of project construction.
Xinjiang: Policy support drives the construction of green hydrogen projects to speed up
. It is planned to achieve a green hydrogen production capacity of 100,000 tons per year by 2025. At the same time, for the green hydrogen production projects with full-load production by the end of August 2024, the project owners are allowed to build new energy projects of the same scale and the generated electricity can be connected to the grid. Policy planning has driven Xinjiang into the stage of expected acceleration.
Price: The decline in the bid-winning price is due to the benign cost reduction of the industry, which is expected to further stimulate and accelerate the construction demand and rhythm
of the industry. In the past 23 years, the price of hydrogen production equipment has been reduced, and is now stable in the reasonable price range of 700-800 W/set, mainly due to: 1) changes in the scope of procurement: stripping electrical equipment to purchase hydrogen production equipment; 2) Optimization of integration scheme: The scale of hydrogen production promotes the optimization of system integration scheme from one to one to multiple to one, and the sharing of post-processing equipment brings about cost sharing. It is expected that the scale of hydrogen production will further enhance the level of integration, and the procurement cost will continue to decline benignly.
Risk warning: in terms of cost, the cost of renewable energy power generation is reduced and the installed capacity is less than expected; in terms of technology iteration, the development of electrolyzer technology is less than expected; Policies: At present, the hydrogen energy industry is still in the early stage of industrial scale development, and the effective promotion of policies plays a positive role in industrial development. If the policy support is lower than expected, it will affect the enthusiasm of industrial development.
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