城中村改造全面启动 水泥需求有望触底回升?

2023-10-19 17:27:30

在水泥总体需求萎缩的大背景下,城中村改造能带来多少需求成为行业的关注点。

城市更新一直是大中型城市高质量发展过程中的重要一环,10月12日,住房和城乡建设部发布消息称,超大特大城市正积极稳步推进城中村改造。

今年以来,城中村改造在中央及各部门重要会议中多次被提及。2023年7月,国务院常务会议审议通过《关于在超大特大城市积极稳步推进城中村改造的指导意见》。从政策影响范围来看,本轮城中村改造主要涉及21个超大特大城市。其中,超大城市7个,分别为上海、北京、深圳、重庆、广州、成都和天津;特大城市14个,分别为武汉、东莞、西安、杭州、佛山、南京、沈阳、青岛、济南、长沙、哈尔滨、郑州、昆明和大连。

有券商认为,城中村改造有望对地产实物量带来明显增量,当前资金端政策持续推进,考虑到一线城市储备项目较多,预计短期拉动效果可能超预期,24年水泥需求有望触底回升。

在水泥总体需求萎缩的大背景下,城中村改造能带来多少需求成为行业的关注点。

中国水泥网水泥大数据研究院根据政策执行力度的不同,将城中村改造需求分为悲观、中性和乐观三种情况,拆旧比例分别为20%、40%和60%,并假定拆建比均为2进行了预测。据各大券商机构测算,目前上述21个超大特大城市的城中村建筑面积合计在9-12亿方上下。以此数据计算,乐观、中性和悲观情况下,城中村改造带来的水泥需求总量分别在3亿吨、2亿吨和1亿吨左右。

从需求释放的节奏来看,由于本轮城中村改造涉及的土地性质复杂,流动人口占比高,征地和安置难度较大,加之政府资金扶持相较于棚改期间有所减弱,整体改造节奏预计较为缓慢。结合各地公布的城中村改造规划和实际项目经验,本轮城中村改造耗时可能在十年以上。

因此,城中村改造年均水泥用量预计在1000-3000万吨左右,相当于2022年全国水泥产量的0.5%-1.5%。在这21个特大超大城市中,仅上海一城去年全年的水泥需求就为2300万吨左右。

由此可见,城中村改造确实可以拉动部分水泥需求,但由于政策涉及范围和拆改比例有限等因素,其对水泥需求的提振作用仍然偏弱。要改变全国水泥行情下行的趋势,关键或许仍在于实质性去产能。

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2024-10-12 17:25:54

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2024-10-12 15:03:04

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2024-09-20 17:55:34

China Cement Net Market Data Center News: The commercial mixed market in Northwest China is running steadily.

2024-09-20 16:41:28

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2024-09-20 11:03:39

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The vicious competition of "involution" is a game without winners.

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"There are two leading enterprises fighting in Guanzhong.".

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2024-07-29 15:09:40

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2024-06-28 09:38:56

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The contradiction between supply and demand intensifies, and the price prospect of natural sand is worrying.

2024-06-26 15:22:12

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Cement Big Data Research Institute of China Cement Network has recently conducted online research on some sand and gravel enterprises.

2024-06-25 16:50:21

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2024-06-21 15:30:08

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2024-06-18 14:30:41

According to the data center of China Cement Network, some areas in central and southern Hebei in North China have once again pushed up the price of cement by 30-50 yuan/ton and the price of clinker by 20 yuan/ton. The overall market demand is insufficient, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-06-14 17:45:01

According to China Cement Network Market Data Center, driven by factors such as kiln shutdown and the implementation of the new national standard, the price of cement in Guangxi Province has risen by 30 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed. The Guangdong market is tepid, and the quotation is temporarily stable. After the market of the two lakes rose, the implementation was not good.

2024-06-07 16:54:49