photovoltaic cell sector, another concern is that at the crossroads of technology iteration, is it to choose to expand the old production capacity, or to enter the N-type field of TOPCon and HJT? According to the current public information of the photovoltaic cell industry and the information from the client, the expansion of the photovoltaic cell industry will continue to grow at a high speed this year, mainly based on Topcon technology path. It is clear that 2023 will be a big year for the expansion of photovoltaic Topcon, which is expected to exceed 200GW.
Up to now, 59 enterprises have 83 TOPCon battery projects under construction or planning, with a total capacity of 966.
capacity distribution." Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Hebei, Sichuan, Shanxi and Inner Mongolia are the main gathering areas of TOPCon production capacity. Of course, this is closely related to the capacity layout of the expansion enterprises themselves. In terms of
production time, many projects will be put into production in 2023 due to the short production time of photovoltaic cells. At that time, with the concentrated outbreak of TOPCon production capacity, it will have a strong impact on the downstream market.
1
Jinko
Solar JinkoSolar is undoubtedly a firm supporter of TOPCon technology route and the most important driving force for the commercialization of TOPCon battery technology. In terms of
technology accumulation, JinkoSolar has broken the world record of N-type TOPCon batteries for seven consecutive times in the past two years, and set a record of 26 at the end of 2022. In terms of commercial mass production, the mass production efficiency of JinkoSolar's TOPCon batteries has exceeded 25%. In terms of
products, Tiger Neo series components based on N-type TOPCon technology independently developed by Jingke Energy have a maximum power of more than 600W +. In terms of
production capacity, according to the latest information disclosed by Jingke Energy, its TOPCon production capacity has reached 35GW, realizing the integration of N-type and P-type components at the same cost. Component shipments reach 10GW in 2022. According to the plan, TOPCon components will become the main force of JinkoSolar's shipments in 2023.
As a newly established component enterprise, Yidao Xinneng is also a firm supporter and promoter of TOPCon battery technology. As early as 2019, a new energy has established the first TOPCon R & D and production line. In 2022, Song Dengyuan, a leading technology figure in the field of N-type batteries, was hired as chief technology officer.
Up to now, Yidao Xinneng has successfully developed three generations of technical routes. The average efficiency of TOPCon batteries reaches more than 25.2%, and the highest mass production efficiency reaches 25.
In terms of products, a new series of "DAON" brand DAON Mini and DAON and DAON Pro N-type high-efficiency components are launched. The highest module efficiency is as high as 22.
In terms of capacity planning, according to the White Paper on N-type Products of Yidao Xinneng released by Yidao Xinneng, by the end of 2022, the TOPCon capacity of Yidao Xinneng will reach 20GW, and according to the plan, by the end of 2023, its N-type battery capacity and module capacity will reach 30GW respectively.
Trina Solar,
as the initiator of the 210 Alliance, put forward the strategy of 210 + N after getting through the 210 + P ecosystem. In the choice of N-type battery technology, Trina Solar also chose TOPCon.
As early as 2015, Trina Solar began developing TOPCon technology. In 2016, Menghe N-type power station demonstration base was completed. In 2019, a total of 500MW i-TOPCon modules were delivered to Tongchuan and Changzhi forerunner projects. In 2021, a 500MW N-type i-TOPCon pilot line based on 210 product technology platform was established. In 2022, the 8GW 210 + N-type i-TOPCon battery of Suqian Base of Trina Solar was successfully offline. So far, Trina Solar TOPCon technology has achieved industrial mass production. In terms of
products, Trina Solar has launched a new generation of Vertex Supreme N-type 605W series and 695W series components, with a conversion efficiency of 22.
In terms of capacity planning, Trina Solar Jiangsu Suqian 8GW battery project has been put into operation. Among them, 10GW battery also adopts TOPCon technology route. According to Trina Solar's plan, the production capacity of TOPCon modules will reach 30GW in 2023, and TOPCon module shipments will account for 20-30% of total shipments.
Jingao Technology
, which started with batteries, pays more attention to the research and development of battery technology, and has many reserves in TOPCon, HIT, IBC and perovskite battery technology. The actual investment in industrialization is more focused on TOPCon. In this regard, Jingao Science and Technology explained that TOPCon is relatively mature, the company's R & D investment is large, and heterojunction has the possibility of large-scale production in 2-3 years. In
the second quarter of 2022, Jingao Technology achieved mass production of TOPCon batteries. On May 18, 2022, Jingao Technology launched DeepBlue 4.0 X modules with a maximum power of 625W and an efficiency of 22.
In terms of capacity, Jingao Technology is building and planning a TOPCon battery capacity of 56 GW. It is also clear that the proportion of TOPCon component shipments in 2023 will reach 30% of the overall guidance. Compared
with other photovoltaic module giants, Atlas initially stood in line with HJT and once became a flagship representative enterprise. However, when other photovoltaic module giants joined the TOPCon camp, the attitude of Atlas changed dramatically.At the end of 2022, the official website of Atlas said that it expected to start shipping the first batch of TOPCon products early next year, and that all new battery production capacity of the company in the future would focus on this technology. Since then, Atlas has completely turned to TOPCon. Qu Xiaohua, chairman and CEO of
Atlas Solar, has said that TOPCon modules will consolidate Atlas'competitiveness in technology leadership and pricing power. In terms of
production capacity, Atlas plans 10GW TOPCon battery production capacity in Suqian, Jiangsu. Atlas also made it clear that TOPCon component shipments will account for about 30% of total shipments in 2023.
6
Longji Green
Energy is the leader in the field of components and even in the photovoltaic industry. Longji Green Energy's attitude towards the dispute between N-type and P-type and the division between TOPCon and HJT has attracted much attention. However, Longji has not made a statement and has repeatedly said that it will not bet on the technical route. Since then, Longji has launched HPBC batteries, which has led to speculation that Longji has rejected the TOPCon battery technology route.
However, on February 27, when Longji was surveyed by investors, it was made clear to the outside world for the first time that its Ordos battery project would adopt TOPCon technology in N-type technology to meet the needs of ground power station customers, and equipment installation is expected to begin in the third quarter of 2023.
The Ordos Battery Project was signed in March 2022, with a planned battery capacity of 30GW and an estimated investment of 10.3 billion yuan. There is no doubt
about Longji's strength and technical reserves. Once TOPCon is chosen, it will undoubtedly add a heavy weight to the TOPCon technology route.
Tongwei shares
and Longji have similar attitudes. As the leader of batteries and silicon materials, Tongwei shares do not easily choose between TOPCon and HJT, but have a two-pronged layout and a multi-pronged approach. Since 2020, Tongwei began to independently develop "TNC" technology, and took the lead in developing 210 mm N-type passivation contact technology in the industry and successfully put into production 1GW production line.
Up to now, the mass production conversion efficiency of the battery produced by Tongwei using TNC technology has exceeded 25. In terms of production capacity, in addition to the 1G W pilot line, the 9 GW TNC mass production line has also been put into production.
As the leader in the field of batteries, although Tongwei chooses to develop TOPCon and HJT at both ends, Tongwei's strength and technical reserves can not be underestimated, and it will become an important force in the field of TOPCon in the future. Zhonglai is
almost the earliest enterprise in China to invest in TOPCon battery technology research and development and commercial mass production. As early as 2016, the application of Zhonglai N-TOPCon technology in the world has exceeded 4.
In terms of technical reserves, Zhonglai has launched two generations of TOPCon battery technology, and is developing TOPCon3. Long-term R & D investment and technical reserves make Zhonglai show its advantages in the field of TOPCon. According to Zhonglai, the single GW fixed asset investment cost of its TOPCon battery is about 1. Follow-up TOPCon3. At the same time, we will strive to complete the overall construction of the 16GW project by the end of this year.
It is worth noting that relying on the state-owned enterprise Zheneng Electric Power Zhonglai shares, with capital and downstream market support, the strength has greatly increased, coupled with years of accumulation in the field of TOPCon, will become a decisive force in the field of TOPCon in the future.
Capital is the most honest, standing at the crossroads of technology iteration, photovoltaic giants have stood in line with TOPCon, which shows that TOPCon battery technology has stood out in the competition. Leading enterprises such as Jingke Energy take the lead in promoting the formation of TOPCon industry ecology, which accelerates the development of TOPCon industry. If 2022 is the first year of commercialization of N-type battery technology, then 2023 is likely to be a year of concentrated outbreak of TOPCon battery technology.
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