According to China Cement Market Center, some major manufacturers along the Yangtze River in Anhui have been notified to raise the price of clinker by about 20 yuan/ton in the third round since February 22, and the surrounding Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets will gradually follow up.
In addition, since February, cement enterprises in Shanghai, Shandong, Anhui, Jiangsu, Guangdong and other places have been notified to raise cement prices . The National Cement Price Index (CEMPI) showed that the recent index continued to rise slightly, from 136.63 points on February 1 to 137.29 points on February 14, up 0.66 points. With the rise of
cement and clinker, the cement market in many places seems to have swept away the haze of 2022, showing a thriving scene. But is the actual situation really so beautiful?
According to the situations in Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Hunan and Hubei, Henan and other regions surveyed by China Cement Network, people have different views on the market trend in 2023. In addition, under the current situation that the real estate industry is still in the doldrums, the production capacity is still excessive, and the recovery process of the industry is still slow, the senior management of cement enterprises have different views on the development of the industry. Which is right and which is wrong? Maybe only time can be used to judge. Is a
price war necessary?
Viewpoint 1: It is necessary to fight. "Survival of the fittest" is one of the characteristics of market economy, especially in the context of serious overcapacity and downward demand, price war can eliminate a number of cement enterprises with backward competitiveness and promote the healthy development of the industry.
Viewpoint 2: There is no need to fight, and it is harmful to others. In recent years, with the further tightening of environmental protection policies and the continuous upgrading and transformation of production lines by enterprises, most of the production lines that can be retained so far have good competitive strength. A vicious price war will only lead to a situation in which both sides lose and the industry is in a slump. Should
the off-peak production time be extended?
Viewpoint 3: It is useful and necessary to extend the off-peak production time. Since the issuance of the Notice on Comprehensive Trial Implementation of Winter Cement Peak-Staggered Production in Northern Heating Areas in November 2015, after years of development, the region and time of national cement peak-staggered production have gradually normalized. From the development of the industry in recent years, peak staggering production can not only reduce pollutant emissions, but also alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand to a certain extent. In the current critical period of downward demand in the industry, if we want the industry to maintain a steady growth momentum, we need not only to extend the off-peak production time, but also to expand the scope to achieve a national chess game.
Viewpoint 4: Staggered production is not a panacea, and it is meaningless to extend the staggered time. In the past few years, cement enterprises have indeed tasted the sweetness of peak staggering production, but it needs to be clear that the effect of peak staggering production is actually weakening year by year, mainly because in recent years, the production line has been upgraded nationwide, and the average daily output capacity of the production line has been continuously improved, while the average daily output has been increased crazily. This is a contradiction. In addition, off-peak production only changes the short-term production problem, and can not fundamentally solve the problem of overcapacity in the cement industry. When the market demand is sluggish, the industry should find a more effective supply-side reform method. What about the demand for
32023
?
Viewpoint 5: 2023 is the first year to go all out to revitalize the economy after the three-year epidemic. From the information disclosed by the local NPC and CPPCC sessions, it can be seen that compared with previous years, local investment in 2023 is not only early, but also strong. Major projects have been used as the "power source" and "stabilizer" of economic development. The construction of major projects will undoubtedly have the most direct pull on cement demand, and cement demand is expected to rebound year-on-year in 2023.
Viewpoint 6: Real estate is the most important factor driving the growth of cement demand. At present, the real estate industry is still in the stage of continuous bottoming. Despite the continuous progress of major projects around the country, the pull of major projects on cement demand can not make up for the decline in demand caused by the downturn of real estate, and whether the funds are in place will directly restrict the progress of infrastructure investment, and the demand for cement in 2023 is not optimistic. Will the profits of cement enterprises increase when
coal prices fall?
Viewpoint 7: In 2021, the market will usher in the era of "super crazy coal", and in 2022, the coal price will remain at a high level as a whole. Under the situation of high coal price, the industrial enterprises represented by cement have been impacted to varying degrees, and the high coal price has swallowed up the profit margin of cement enterprises to a large extent. In 2023, with the decline in the price of raw materials such as coal, the cost of cement enterprises will be reduced, and the profit of the cement industry in 2023 is expected to be better than last year.
Viewpoint 8: The high price of coal affects the cost of cement production, but there are many factors affecting the profits of cement enterprises, not only the price of coal. From the development of the past few decades, the profit of the cement industry is not necessarily inversely proportional to the coal price, so it is not objective to judge the growth or decline of the industry profit only by the rise and fall of the coal price. The key is to see whether the demand can support the market to maintain a good situation. How should the
cement industry face the current difficulties?
Viewpoint 9: Under the current situation, the cement industry must form a new consensus, maintain unity, maintain communication, maintain a sense of the overall situation, and maintain objectivity and rationality, so that the industry can achieve stable development and growth.
Viewpoint 10: In the context of declining market demand, the industry should break the old and establish the new, establish a market-oriented and legalized mechanism for capacity reduction, speed up capacity clearance with the help of the law of survival of the fittest, as well as rigid indicators such as energy consumption, environmental protection and carbon reduction, and start a new round of industry reshuffle, so as to achieve the healthy development of the industry.
Now, the epidemic has become a thing of the past, China's economy has restarted, and 2023 has become the key year for economic recovery. In this context, how to timely spy on China's macroeconomic situation in 2023, grasp the pulse of cement demand and market in 2023, understand the changing market situation, and discuss when the era of high cost of cement will end has become a major concern of the industry!
On this occasion, China Cement Network is scheduled to hold the " 2023 China Cement Industry Summit " in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, on March 15-16, 2023, with the theme of "Strong Confidence, Breakthrough and Development". Industry leaders, experts, cement enterprises and equipment suppliers are invited to gather together to discuss industry plans.
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