价格战该不该打?错峰时间该不该延长?你的答案是什么

2023-02-28 09:18:16

从中国水泥网调研的长三角、珠三角、两湖、河南等地区的情况来看,大家对2023年市场走势观点不一。

据中国水泥网行情中心消息,2月22日起安徽沿江地区一些主要厂家第三轮通知上调熟料价格20元/吨左右,周边江浙市场将逐步跟进。

此外,2月以来,上海、山东、安徽、江苏、广东等地水泥企业陆续通知上调水泥价格。全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)显示,近期指数持续小幅回升,从2月1日的136.63点一直最高到2月14日的137.29点,上升了0.66点。

水泥涨,熟料涨,多地水泥市场似乎一扫2022年的阴霾,呈现出欣欣向荣的景象。但实际情况真的如此美好吗?

从中国水泥网调研的长三角、珠三角、两湖、河南等地区的情况来看,大家对2023年市场走势观点不一,另外,在房地产依旧低迷、产能依旧过剩、行业复苏进程依旧缓慢的现状下,各水泥企业高层看待行业发展的观点也产生了不小分歧。孰对孰错?也许只有时间可以来评定。

1

价格战有必要打吗?

观点一:有必要打。“优胜略汰、适者生存”是市场经济的特征之一,尤其是在产能严重过剩且需求下行的背景下,通过价格战可以淘汰一批竞争力落后的水泥企业,推动行业健康发展。

观点二:没必要打,且损人不利己。近些年随着环保政策的进一步收紧,以及各企业对生产线的持续升级改造,能够留存至今的生产线大多数都拥有不俗的竞争实力。恶性的价格战只会造成两败俱伤,行业一蹶不振的局面。

2

错峰生产时间应该延长吗?

观点三:延长错峰生产时间有用且有必要。自2015年11月《关于在北方采暖区全面试行冬季水泥错峰生产的通知》发布以来,经过多年发展,全国水泥错峰生产的地域和时间逐步常态化。从近几年的行业发展情况来看,错峰生产不仅可以减少污染物排放,也可以一定程度上缓解供需矛盾。在当前行业需求下行的关键期,若想行业能够保持稳增长的发展势头,不仅需要延长错峰生产时间,更需要扩大范围,做到全国一盘棋。

观点四:错峰生产不是万能的,即便延长错峰时间也无多大意义。前几年,水泥企业的确尝到了错峰生产的甜头,但需要明确的是,错峰生产的效果实际上在逐年减弱,这主要是因为近几年全国范围内的生产线提产改造,生产线的日均产量能力不断提升,一边疯狂提高日均产量,一边又延长错峰时间,这是自相矛盾。此外,错峰生产只是改变短时的产量问题,并不能从根本上解决水泥行业产能过剩的问题,在市场需求萎靡之时,行业应该找到一条更行之有效的供给侧改革方法。

3

2023需求怎么看?

观点五:2023年是三年疫情后全力以赴重振经济的第一年,从地方两会透露的信息也可看出,与往年相比,2023年地方投资不仅发力早,力度也大,各地纷纷将重大项目作为经济发展的“动力源”和“稳定器”。重大项目的落地建设,无疑将对水泥需求产生最直接的拉动,2023年水泥需求有望同比回升。

观点六:房地产是拉动水泥需求增长的最主要因素,目前房地产行业依然处于持续探底的阶段。尽管各地重大项目不断推进,但重大项目对水泥需求的拉动并不能弥补房地产下行带来的需求下滑,且资金能否到位将直接制约基建投资进度,2023年水泥需求不容乐观。

4

煤价下跌水泥企业利润会增长吗?

观点七:2021年市场迎来“煤超疯”时代,2022年煤炭价格依然整体处于高位。在煤价高涨的形势下,以水泥为代表的工业企业受到不同程度的冲击,煤价的高企很大程度上吞噬了水泥企业的利润空间。进入2023年,随着煤炭等原材料价格的下降,水泥企业成本将降低,预计2023年水泥行业利润有望优于去年。

观点八:煤炭价格的高涨影响的是水泥生产成本,但水泥企业的利润影响因素有很多,并非只有煤价这一项。从过去几十年的发展来看,水泥行业的利润额多少和煤价的高低并不一定是反比关系,所以仅通过煤价的涨跌来判断行业利润的增长或下跌有失客观性,关键还是要看需求能否支撑行情保持良好态势。

5

水泥行业应如何面对当前困境?

观点九:在当前形势下,水泥行业必须要形成新的共识,保持团结、保持沟通、保持大局意识、保持客观理智,行业才能够实现稳定的发展和增长。

观点十:在市场需求下滑背景下,行业应该破旧立新,建立市场化、法治化去产能机制,借助优胜劣汰规律,以及能耗、环保、降碳等硬性指标,加速产能出清,开启行业新一轮的洗牌,进而实现行业的健康发展。

如今,疫情成为过去式,我国经济重启,2023年成为经济复苏的关键之年。在此背景下,如何及时窥探2023年我国宏观经济态势,把握2023水泥需求、行情脉搏,洞悉市场风云变幻,探讨水泥高成本时代何时结束等成为萦绕业界的心头大事!

值此之际,中国水泥网定于2023年3月15-16日在浙江杭州举办“2023中国水泥产业峰会”,会议以“强信心谋突破促发展”为主题,诚邀行业领导、专家、水泥企业、设备供应商等齐聚一堂,共商行业大计。

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Correlation

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we believe that the demand for cement will continue to weaken, but under the background of the rising voice of "anti-involution" and the increasing awareness of self-help in the industry, enterprises will intensify their efforts to limit production, cement prices are expected to rise, and industry benefits will continue to be restored. Throughout the year, cement demand will face greater downward pressure, and the industry's profit decline is still large.

2024-10-30 17:15:19

Based on the market situation of the cement industry and the demand for high-quality and low-carbon development of Conch Cement, Conch will strengthen the research and development of technologies such as energy saving and carbon reduction, green environmental protection, clean energy and low-carbon cement. The main research directions of Conch's scientific and technological innovation in the future are as follows: 1. Research and development project of raw material and fuel substitution in the cement industry; 2. Research and development project of cement clinker quality improvement; 3. Energy-saving and carbon-reducing technical equipment R & D project; 4. Clean and green energy R & D and manufacturing project; 5. Future carbon technology industry exploration project.

2024-10-29 16:34:25

On October 24, the "2024 China Cement Double Carbon Conference and the 12th Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Technology Exchange Conference" was held in Wuhu, Anhui Province. Gao Dengbang, President of China Cement Association, Zhu Shengli, General Manager of Anhui Conch Group Co., Ltd., Lv Zhijian, President of Xinjiang Building Material Industry Association, Ma Weiping, Chairman of OCC, Jiang Dehong, Vice President and Chief Engineer of Tianshan Materials Co., Ltd., Li Jian, Associate Researcher of Chinese Academy of Environmental Sciences, Fan Yueming, Professor of South China University of Technology, Zhuge Wenda, Chairman of Leishan Cement Co., Ltd., Century Xinfeng, Hubei, Yan Haochun, Technical Director of China National Inspection and Testing Holding Group and General Manager of Certification and Evaluation Center.

2024-10-24 16:55:38

According to the statistics of China Cement Network, the annual carbon emissions of the cement industry exceed 1.2 billion tons of standard coal, second only to the power and steel industries, including more than 100 cement enterprise groups with annual carbon emissions exceeding one million tons. In the next stage, with the establishment of the carbon trading market, the cement industry will face unprecedented opportunities and challenges. The introduction of carbon trading mechanism will encourage enterprises to take the initiative to reduce emissions, transform the cost of carbon emissions into economic benefits, and promote the industry to develop in a more environmentally friendly and efficient direction. "Double carbon" is not only a responsibility, but also a cost and benefit.

2024-10-24 09:22:35

According to the China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in Lanzhou-Baiyin area of Gansu Province has risen by 10 yuan/ton; the prices in Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang and Shaanxi are stable. Affected by the big drop in temperature, rain and snow before the festival, the market demand in Qinghai has declined significantly. As the weather cleared up, cement sales in the region rebounded, and the market showed signs of warming up.

2024-10-12 17:29:56

In view of the problems of declining profits of cement enterprises hindering green transformation and narrowing the space for energy saving and carbon reduction, Ye Jiayuan proposed that cement enterprises should not forget to innovate no matter how difficult it is. Innovation should not only be limited to low-carbon areas, but also open up ideas and plan digital upgrading and intelligent transformation as early as possible according to their own conditions. In the implementation of digital and intelligent transformation, it should be linked with low-carbon as far as possible. If digital intelligence leaves the foothold of low carbon, digital intelligence is likely to be hollow, and it is likely to become a castle in the air, which is not useful, but a burden for enterprises.

2024-09-05 11:04:53

From the overall situation, in the first half of 2024, the overall operating situation of the cement industry was grim, and the profits of cement enterprises basically declined sharply, and even some enterprises suffered huge losses. In terms of the operation and management of Conch Cement, the Group will pay close attention to the macroeconomic situation at home and abroad, and continue to improve the quality and efficiency of its operation in line with the guidance of national policies. Huaxin Cement said that it demonstrated the sense of responsibility of large enterprises and actively promoted and implemented new supply-side structural reform programs and measures suitable for the high-quality development of the industry.

2024-09-03 09:43:58

In the first half of 2024, Conch Cement realized an operating income of RMB45.566 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 30.44%, and a net profit attributable to parent company of RMB3.326 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 48.56%.

2024-08-30 14:56:13

According to the report, in the second half of 2024, the external environment is still complex and severe, and the operation and development still face many risks and challenges. From the perspective of the industry, in the second half of the year, the marginal demand for cement improved, the supply compression continued to increase, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry was prominent. From the company's point of view, strategic opportunities and risks coexist, uncertainties increase, the complexity and severity of the business situation, the heavy and arduous tasks continue to intensify.

2024-08-27 11:20:44

We need to establish the core values of "others earn more, I can earn more" to guide production and operation. In the short run, only by actively limiting production and restoring the balance of supply and demand in the weak market, can the cement industry achieve a recovery in efficiency. Without enough initiative and consistency to limit production, all those who talk about the price of cement are cheaters and hooligans, and they can not succeed.

2024-08-13 15:12:11

Promote large-scale and intensive management, improve the relationship between supply and demand, and prevent involution competition.

2024-08-06 11:40:39

Looking forward to the second half of 2024, we believe that the demand for cement will improve compared with the first half of the year, and the price will continue to rebound. However, under the constraints of weak demand and serious overcapacity, the repair of cement price is limited. Throughout the year, cement demand will face

2024-08-01 09:19:52

We will jointly discuss and analyze the practice path of ultra-low emission in the cement industry, and promote the industry to move towards a more energy-efficient and environmentally friendly future.

2024-07-23 18:02:53

In the past two decades, the demand change of China's cement industry has gone through three development stages: high-speed development period (2004-2012), high-level platform period (2013-2021), and downward demand period (from 2022 to now).

2024-07-23 16:45:00

Shangfeng Cement has unique advantages in cost control, operational efficiency and industrial structure. Through efforts to improve its own capabilities and competitiveness, Shangfeng Cement has won the recognition of investors and shareholders through a series of practical actions to improve quality and efficiency, and promoted the comprehensive value of the company.

2024-07-19 09:35:56

European cement prices may exceed 250 euros/ton.

2024-07-17 16:03:36

"Integrated transformation and development, overseas development, new building materials business development, traditional industry + digital innovation".

2024-07-02 10:27:00

Listen to the singing of new willow branches, "old trees" blossom and "flowers" are more red. We believe that this cement production enterprise with a glorious history of more than 50 years will create a more brilliant future in the new journey of pursuing high-quality development.

2024-07-02 10:10:04

Huaxin Cement has formulated the action plan of "improving quality, increasing efficiency and emphasizing returns" in 2024, aiming at implementing the spirit of the Central Conference, responding to the initiative of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, improving the company's quality, investment value and market competitiveness, optimizing its operation and governance, actively returning investors and creating a good image of the capital market.

2024-07-01 17:06:15

Strict implementation of off-peak production is an important reason for the rise of local cement prices.

2024-06-18 09:51:24

According to the data center of China Cement Network, some areas in central and southern Hebei in North China have once again pushed up the price of cement by 30-50 yuan/ton and the price of clinker by 20 yuan/ton. The overall market demand is insufficient, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-06-14 17:45:01

On June 13, the 11th China Cement Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Technology Exchange Conference and Equipment Renewal Forum, sponsored by China Cement Network, was held in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province.

2024-06-13 16:36:33

Accelerate the strategic integration of key markets, focus on Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Northeast and Shanxi regions, accelerate the efficiency of regional mergers and reorganizations, enhance market control and voice, and build a new pattern of coordinated development of "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei + Northeast + Northwest".

2024-06-06 10:00:30

It is not a day's work for the cement industry to reduce carbon. It needs to start from technology, raw materials, fuel, production management and policy response to form a comprehensive strategy to promote the industry's transformation to low carbon and contribute to the global carbon neutrality goal.

2024-06-03 10:04:44

By the end of 2025, the proportion of production capacity above the benchmark level of energy efficiency in cement and ceramics industries will reach 30%, that of production capacity above the benchmark level of energy efficiency in flat glass industry will reach 20%, and that of production capacity below the benchmark level of energy efficiency in building materials industry will be completed or eliminated.

2024-05-29 20:21:02

How much can alternative fuels save cement companies?

2024-05-24 09:26:39

Faced with the more severe market situation in the future, what decisions should cement enterprises make to deal with it?

2024-05-23 16:07:41

With the continuous progress of national infrastructure construction, it is estimated that by 2027, the demand for clinker in Bangladesh's cement industry will soar to 25 million tons..

2024-05-21 10:02:19

Layoffs reduce costs, but can they really increase efficiency?

2024-05-15 14:41:02

Can this push up be implemented? According to the communication between China Cement Network and local cement enterprises, the difficulty of price implementation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is quite different.

2024-04-29 17:45:49

The planned future aggregate production capacity of Shangfeng Cement can reach about 30 million tons.

2024-04-29 13:39:12

The first task is to establish a strong pricing strategy to ensure that the rise in the cost side can be transmitted to the price in time to ensure corporate profits.

2024-04-24 15:28:09

According to the market data of China Cement Network, the market demand in Beijing and Inner Mongolia has increased slightly, and the quotation of enterprises is temporarily stable.

2024-04-12 17:16:37

Gao Changming believes that China's cement industry should be a big probability event to meet the carbon neutrality standard in 2050.

2024-04-03 15:06:47

Xinjiang Tianfeng Investment Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Shangfeng Building Materials, intends to acquire 100% equity of Xinjiang Bohai Cement Co., Ltd.

2024-04-03 10:07:10

On March 29, the "2024 13th China Cement Industry Summit Main Forum and TOP100 Award Ceremony" was held grandly.

2024-03-29 18:00:30

On March 28, the 13th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony hosted by China Cement Network was held grandly.

2024-03-28 18:30:58

"When demand goes down, it is the time for the T-shaped strategy to shine." An industry insider said.

2024-03-27 10:03:52

The plan requires that by the end of 2025, the comprehensive energy consumption per unit product of cement clinker will be reduced by 3.7% compared with the end of 2020.

2024-03-21 10:28:24

In 2023, Conch Cement realized operating income of 140.999 billion yuan, an increase of 6.8% over the previous year, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 10.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.4% over the previous year.

2024-03-20 11:44:45

In December 2023, China Resources Cement changed its name to China Resources Building Materials Technology, and its Tianyang base was the first cement enterprise lighthouse factory certified by the World Economic Forum, and also the first lighthouse factory of global building materials enterprises. The new Tianyang Lighthouse plant has deployed more than 30 fourth industrial revolution technology use cases, improving energy, labor and equipment efficiency and quality performance through advanced analysis, automatic driving and industrial Internet of Things. The carbon emission of the base is reduced by 24%, the labor productivity is increased by 105%, the unplanned downtime of equipment is reduced by 56%, and the quality stability is improved by 25%.

2024-03-15 16:26:57

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.