(I) Development
of the global silicon wafer industry in 2022 The scale of silicon wafers in 2022 continued to maintain a rapid growth trend. By the end of 2022, the total production capacity of silicon wafers in the world was about 664 GW, an increase of 60% over the same period last year, of which the production capacity of monocrystalline silicon wafers exceeded 640 GW, an increase of 65% over the same period last year. The output was approximately 381.1GW, representing a year-on-year increase of 63.6%. From the perspective of production layout, by the end of 2022, the silicon wafer production capacity of enterprises in mainland China was about 650.3GW, accounting for 97.9% of the world's total, occupying an absolute leading position.
In 2022, the total production capacity of the top ten silicon wafer enterprises in the world reached 552.5G W, accounting for about 83.2% of the global total production capacity, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.4 percentage points; the total output of the top ten silicon wafer enterprises in the world reached 341.1G W, accounting for 89.5% of the global total output, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.3 percentage points. In 2022, the second echelon enterprises developed rapidly, rapidly narrowing the difference with the first echelon, and even leapfrogging in the capacity ranking.
(II) Development
of China's silicon wafer industry In 2022, the production capacity of silicon wafers in mainland China was about 650.3GW, with a year-on-year increase of 59.7%; the output was about 371.3GW, with a year-on-year increase of 63.9%, accounting for 97.4% of the global silicon wafer output, occupying an absolute leading position in the global silicon wafer field. In terms of
import and export, China's silicon wafer export volume in 2022 was about 5.07 billion US dollars, an increase of 106.9% over the previous year, and the export volume was about 36.3GW, an increase of 60.6% over the previous year, accounting for about 9.8% of China's silicon wafer output. Affected by the rising price of raw materials, the price of silicon wafers has risen, and the export volume of silicon wafers has risen sharply. In addition, with the acceleration of the overseas market layout of enterprises, the export volume of silicon wafers has also increased considerably.
(III) Development characteristics
of silicon wafer industry The pace of production expansion of monocrystalline silicon rods/wafers was accelerated. In 2022, the production capacity of monocrystalline silicon rods increased by nearly 220GW compared with the end of 2021, and the production capacity of traditional monocrystalline silicon wafer enterprises Longji Green Energy and TCL Zhonghuan Crystal Pulling exceeded 100GW. Hongyuan Green Energy, Meike Stock, Gaojing, Shuangliang and so on, relying on the industry background and technology accumulation of the main equipment manufacturers of single crystal pulling or slicing, are also increasing new production capacity at a faster rate, so the concentration of silicon wafer links has declined. With the acceleration of large-size
silicon wafers, the proportion of 156.75 mm size decreased from 5% in 2021 to 0.5% in 2022, and will fade out of the market in 2024; The proportion of 166mm size will decrease from 36% in 2021 to 15.5% in 2022, and the market share will further decrease in the future; the total proportion of 182mm and 210mm size will increase rapidly from 45% in 2021 to 82.8% in 2022. Diversification of
silicon wafer size, because the size of silicon wafer is directly related to the power of components, in 2022, enterprises will further optimize the size of silicon wafer on the basis of the mainstream size of 182 mm or 210 mm to achieve the optimal size of components, and then match the frame thinning and packaging improvement to achieve the maximum transport volume in a single container. So as to reduce the transportation cost of components, especially in the case of soaring sea freight in 2022, it has become a rigid demand.
(4) The development trend
of silicon wafer industry In the rising price tide in 2022, enterprises realized the importance of the silicon wafer link, which prompted some enterprises to speed up the vertical integration layout. At the same time, downstream silicon wafer enterprises have strengthened their supply chain control ability by locking in long orders. With the layout of TOPCon batteries by Jingke Energy, Tongwei, Zhengtai and other enterprises, the demand for n-type silicon wafers increased gradually in 2023. According to the Roadmap for the Development of China's Photovoltaic Industry (2022-2023), it is predicted that the market share of n-type silicon wafers will increase from 10% in 2022 to 25.5% in 2023, and the market share of n-type silicon wafers will continue to increase.
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