According to the latest price of polysilicon released by the Silicon Branch on June 14, the average transaction price of monocrystalline re-feeding in that week was 74,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.64% week on week; The average transaction price of monocrystalline dense materials is 72,400 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 24. The average transaction price of domestic N-type materials is 80,500 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 22.
Since the end of February this year, the price of silicon materials has been declining. On February 22, the average price of monocrystalline silicon was 222,400 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price of monocrystalline dense materials was 240,100 yuan/ton. After that, the price dropped all the way to 197,800 yuan/ton and 19 yuan/ton respectively on April 14. Now the price has dropped again, and the range is so large that it can be called "knee chop". In terms of
silicon wafers, leading companies have also lowered prices.
Among them, Longji announced on May 29 that compared with the quotation on April 27, the price of P-type M10 (150 μm thickness) monocrystalline silicon wafer was reduced from 6.3 yuan to 4.36 yuan, and the price of P-type M6 (150 μm thickness) monocrystalline silicon wafer was reduced from 5.44 yuan to 3.81 yuan. After a drop of 30.79% and 29.3
days respectively, TCL Central followed the price adjustment. On April 6, the price of P-type silicon wafers with a thickness of 150 μm and a size of 182 was 6.4 yuan per wafer, while on June 1, the price had dropped to 3.8 yuan per wafer, a drop of 40.
Some small factories even reported to 1.
On June 1, Huadian Group opened the second batch of photovoltaic modules in 2023, with a total scale of 4081. The opening price of modules hit a new low this year, with the lowest price of p-type double-sided as low as 1.425 yuan/W. The lowest price of n-type double-sided has been as low as 1.
This round of large-scale price reduction in the whole photovoltaic industry chain is considered to be a chain reaction triggered by the sharp drop in the price of silicon materials. The price of silicon wafers and silicon materials is highly linked, and the components are affected by the price of silicon wafers. On the contrary, the price fluctuation of downstream cells is the smallest, the price has decreased, but the profit margin has increased, and the gross profit of large-size cells is as high as 30%.
Judging from the current market reaction, it has not yet reached the most tragic time, or even a price war, because many links still have good profits. With the fierce competition, the time for "bayonet fighting" will come. From the comprehensive point of view of the disaster
caused by over
capacity, it is clear that the excess signal is the silicon material and silicon wafer link, which are the two big stones that crush the photovoltaic industry chain.
According to CITIC Futures data, it is estimated that in 2023, China's silicon production will exceed 1.4 million tons, and the total global production will exceed 1.55 million tons, which can meet more than 600GW components. According to the TrendForce Jibang Consulting Report, the global demand for new installed capacity in 2023 is 351GW. Comparing the two, the production capacity of polysilicon has been obviously excessive.
Today's overcapacity is the bitter fruit of previous industry fanaticism.
Over the past three years, stimulated by the "double carbon" policy dividend, the entire photovoltaic industry has entered an unprecedented upward cycle. Faced with the craze on the demand side, as the source product of the photovoltaic industry chain, silicon materials are in short supply, prices are soaring all the way, and downstream products such as silicon wafers and components are also rising all the way. The price of
polysilicon reached 300000 yuan per ton in July last year, a 10-year high. The price of silicon wafers has also risen, hitting its highest level in the past decade. In 2022, the silicon material has become a money printing machine, and the silicon material enterprises have made a lot of money. Under the
huge profits, not only the leading manufacturers in the industry have expanded production in silicon materials, silicon wafers and other sectors, but also many liquor, Internet, real estate and other companies have crossed the border. By the second quarter of this year, the market supply and demand has finally changed under the unexpected expansion of production capacity, and silicon materials and wafers have changed from tight goods to unsalable goods. The severity of silicon material surplus can be seen from
a set of industry public data: by the end of May this year, the silicon material inventory of the whole industry had exceeded 100,000 tons (equivalent to about 38 GW of silicon wafers); meanwhile, the monthly output in May had exceeded 110,000 tons, and the import volume had exceeded 120,000 tons (equivalent to about 48 GW of silicon wafers). By the second half of the year, the total monthly output of domestic silicon materials and overseas imports will exceed 130 thousand tons. The same is true of the
silicon chip sector. According to InfoLink statistics, by mid-May, the unsalable inventory had exceeded 9 GW, and the inventory time was more than 5 days. At the same time, the goods in the manufacturer's warehouse are still piling up.
Specifically for enterprises, the inventory balance of large factories has increased significantly compared with 2022, with a range of more than 20%. And the company's inventory balance is as high as 10 billion.
Faced with such a situation, the industry is fully aware of it. In order to win more market share and maintain the normal operation of enterprises in the increasingly fierce industry, enterprises have to compete for price reduction and shipment, which will last for a long time.
At present, the price of silicon materials and wafers has fallen, which is actually the helpless choice of photovoltaic enterprises after the seller's market has changed into the buyer's market. For many enterprises, how happy it was to expand production at the beginning, how painful it will be in the following days.
Price reduction tide is not a bad thing
, knowing that overcapacity has been excessive, but photovoltaic enterprises are still accelerating expansion, which has become a "strange phenomenon" that people outside the industry can not understand.
However, from the perspective of industry development, enterprises have a tenable logic. Before the storm comes, the stronger body has a stronger ability to resist risks, and the first thing to be eliminated in the industry shuffle is those impetuous but weak small and medium-sized enterprises, which will not hurt the leading enterprises.
Faced with the tide of photovoltaic price reduction, enterprises are competing for cost control and technological innovation capabilities. Those small and medium-sized enterprises will be forced to eliminate because of their own technical conditions, financial strength, market foundation and other limitations, which can not withstand the pressure of price war. Those leading enterprises will gain more market share in the face of the crisis by virtue of scale effect, technological advantages, cost advantages and financial strength.
For example, Li Zhenguo told the media that Longji had reserved about 50 billion yuan in cash and was ready to resist shocks in advance. Such a huge sum of money is not something that small and medium-sized enterprises and latecomers can easily take out. This is the greatest strength for leading enterprises to face the crisis and cross the cycle.
Therefore, the big price reduction in the industrial chain will dissuade those enterprises that have just started and have not accumulated, and will defeat those small and medium-sized enterprises with unstable foundations. It is an indispensable step for the industry to further centralize and move towards higher efficiency, and it is also inevitable for the industry to mature.
In addition, the return of crazy prices to rationality is also conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Song Hao, assistant vice president
of Xiexin Science and Technology, said, "The price of silicon materials has dropped to 110,000-120,000 yuan per ton, or above 100,000 yuan per ton, which can be seen as the return of normal prices." As for the price of silicon materials falling to less than 100000 yuan per ton, Song Hao believes that this will make some more competitive enterprises stand out.Others
in the industry also believe that although the price reduction in the industrial chain has led to a certain squeeze on the profit margin of photovoltaic module enterprises, it has also reduced the investment cost of photovoltaic power plants, which is conducive to stimulating the further release of photovoltaic installed demand. It is expected that in 2023, China's photovoltaic installed capacity will set a new record. Lei Jun, founder
of Xiaomi, said, "Standing on the draught, pigs can fly.". However, there is always a day when the wind stops. In today's photovoltaic industry, it is just right to stop the strong wind, and the big price reduction is not terrible. What is terrible is that the whole industry is shrouded by impetuosity and noise and loses its direction. The
soaring price gradually returns to rationality, which will make people focus more on improving photovoltaic technology and photoelectric conversion efficiency. From this point of view, the industry's big price cut is not a bad thing.
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