In 2022, the high price of coal led to a sharp rise in the cost of cement production. Under the influence of the fall in both the volume and price of cement and the high cost, the operating efficiency of the national cement industry declined seriously. In 2023, what will be the trend of supply and demand in the coal market, which has a greater impact on the cement industry? Recently, China Cement Network had an exchange with Chen Tianyu, assistant general manager of China Coal Resources Network.
"Last year, the average price of 5500 kcal water coal in China's ports around the Bohai Sea was about 1280 yuan/ton, while this year the coal price will fall at a high level, and the average price may remain around 1050 yuan/ton." Chen Tianyu said.
During the communication with Chen Tianyu, it was learned that there were two high points in the coal price of the ports around Bohai Sea in 2022. One was that the coal price continued to rebound from January to March and reached the highest point of the whole year, reaching 1669 yuan/ton; the other was that the price was 1620 yuan/ton at the end of October. The main factor affecting price fluctuation is the unequal supply and demand of coal in the market.
"Coal imports in 2022 are very small, coal purchases are basically provided domestically, and coal stocks are running at a low level." Chen Tianyu said that in 2023, new coal production capacity will be released and there will be an increase, coupled with the relaxation of the import coal policy, this year's coal supply as a whole is in a state of excess.
Chen Tianyu said that in the fourth quarter of 2022, new coal production capacity has begun to be gradually released, and about 200 million tons of production capacity will be put on the market. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of raw coal from January to December last year was 4.496 billion tons, an increase of 9% over the same period last year. In addition, imported coal is expected to grow by 2.5% this year, which basically guarantees the supply of coal.
"At the beginning of this year, coal stocks were at a high level as a whole, and from the recent recovery of downstream production, the coal market is not optimistic, and it is expected to improve in the second quarter." Chen Tianyu disclosed that according to the current judgment, the average price of 5500 kcal power coal in the ports around Bohai Sea will move down to 1000-1100 yuan/ton as a whole, and the high price of coal will be difficult to appear, which is good for the cost side of cement production.
"However, due to the economic recovery, the consumption of thermal coal in China this year may increase by 3% compared with 2022, and the surplus of coal will decrease compared with 2022." Chen Tianyu said frankly that although the coal market is weak in 2023, the price will not decline too much. What is the supply and demand situation of coal market in
2023? What will be the high and low points of the national thermal coal price and when will it appear?
More details can be found in the " 2023 China Cement Industry Summit " to be held by China Cement Network in Hangzhou on March 15-16, 2023. Chen Tianyu, assistant general manager of China Coal Resources Network, will bring you wonderful content. Stay tuned!
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