Through the evaluation of the demand side of real estate, the paper discusses and calculates the urbanization demand, improvement demand and urban renewal demand in 2023-2030. We see that the demand for improvement has become the mainstay, and the demand for urban renewal will replace the demand for urbanization. The proportion of three demands: urbanization, improved demand and urban renewal will be 31%, 49% and 20% respectively in 2020. In 2030, the three items accounted for 21%, 45% and 34% respectively. Total demand for
urban housing construction: from 2011 to 2015, the annual average demand for urban housing increased by 1.23 billion square meters. Annual average new urban housing demand in 2016-2020 14. Forecast annual average new urban housing demand in 2023-2030 12.
Core Viewpoint
2023-2030 Demographic dividend declines, urbanization continues, and improved demand plays a mainstay role. The residential area completed in 2022 is slightly lower than potential real demand by 3.8% -13. There is some room for repair from 2023-2025. In 2023, real estate enterprises will continue to take guaranteed delivery and completion as their primary task. For non-ferrous metals with
completion as the main consumption, real estate will contribute to consumption in 2023 (growth of 0% -5%), which is neutral and optimistic. Although the repair space of
new construction is about 30% -40%, the process is relatively slow, mainly due to the pressure of sales repayment, financing, land purchase and inventory depletion. Industrial products with new construction as the main reference are not overly pessimistic about demand, the worst stage is about to pass, and the real potential consumption has not subsided. Be cautious and optimistic.
Report text
1. Especially in 2022, the new housing construction area was 880 million square meters, down 39.8% year on year; 6.
By the end of 2022, China's epidemic prevention and control has been gradually normalized. How much has the demand for real estate been affected in the three years from 2020 to 2022? Where is the reasonable value of the potential consumption of real estate from 2023 to 2030? This paper attempts to find the answer from the perspective of potential consumption of real estate.
2.
The real demand comes from the housing demand of urban residents, which usually includes three parts: the demand of urbanized residents, the demand for improvement and the demand for urban renewal.
(1) Residential demand for urbanization: the residential demand for the increase of permanent population in new cities and towns.
Calculation method: the annual residential demand for new urbanization = the new urban permanent population * the annual per capita construction area
. In 2022, the urbanization rate of China's permanent population is 65.2%. Compared with 2021, it will increase by 0.5% (lower than average annual growth from 2013 to 2022). 1. According to the United Nations World Urbanization Outlook, the urbanization rate of China's permanent population will increase by about 0.88 percentage points annually from 2023 to 2030, and the urbanization rate of China will reach 72.3% in 2030. It is estimated that the permanent population of cities and towns in China will increase from 920 million to 1.01 billion from 2022 to 2030. Growth 0.
Figure 2.
From 2020 to 2022, China's urbanization rate is 63.89%, 64.72%, 65.2021 and 2022 respectively. The urbanization growth rate is 1.18%, 0.83%, The annual average growth of urbanization from 2013 to 2022 is close to the average growth rate in 2020, slightly lower than average growth rate in 2021 and significantly lower than average growth rate in 2022. There are factors such as the expected decline in income caused by the decline in economic growth, the stricter provention and control in cities and towns than in the countryside, the contraction of real estate financing and so on, which are not discussed here.
China's urban population growth mainly includes: natural growth, regionalization change, and township migration. In 2018, the Bureau of Statistics estimated that the three ratios were 23.6%, 36.8% and 39. We assume that the housing demand generated by the local urbanization of farmers caused by the change of zoning is not met through market channels, but through resettlement housing (demolition) or bringing housing into the city (no demolition). From 2023 to 2030, the per capita building area in China will still increase by 0.48 square meters from 2023 to 2030, and the total demand for urbanized residential buildings in China will be 232000 square meters from 2023 to 2030. Average annual growth of 2.
in 2020). From 2010 to 2020, the annual growth rate of per capita housing construction area in China's cities and towns is maintained at 2.2021-2030, assuming three growth rates of per capita housing area: 1.2%, 1.5% and 2.0%. The estimated demand for improvement is shown in Figure
2.1.2 Growth rate: the annual new demand for improved housing in China is 3.8 ~
4.1.5% from 2021 to 2030 Growth rate: the annual new demand for improved housing in China is 4.76 ~
6.2 from 2021 to 2030 .0% growth rate: The annual new demand for improved housing in China is 6.35-8 from 2021 to 2030.
Based on the comprehensive analysis of the three situations, we believe that the growth rate may be higher before and lower after. The annual additional improvement requirement is 600 million square meters (see Figure 2.
, which clearly put forward the development and construction methods to avoid excessive real estate. ){kind=spacer}
by the demolition and renewal of old houses. Our assumptions are divided into conservative and neutral situations:
Conservative model: assuming the renewal rate of urban housing stock in 2021-2030 1.
Neutral model: assuming that the renewal rate of urban housing stock in 2021-2030 is 1.4% (according to 70 years of land use rights in China). According to 1/70, the corresponding housing renewal rate is 1.
In the part of improving demand, we have estimated that the per capita housing construction area of urban residents in 2020 is about 34.72 square meters. The urban housing stock is about 31.332 billion square meters (per capita housing construction area in 2020 multiplied by the urban resident population in 2020).
Under the conservative model, from 2021 to 2030, the demand for new urban housing renewal in China is about 3.74 billion square meters. 3.
Under the neutral mode, from 2021 to 2030, the demand for new urban housing renewal in China is about 5.23 billion square meters, and the demand for new housing renewal is 5.3
. Referring to the long-term forecast growth rate of China's population by the United Nations, the urbanization rate refers to the United Nations World Urbanization Outlook. As the urbanization process will not maintain a constant growth rate, such as the rapid urbanization in 2016-2018, the demand for urbanization and improvement will increase substantially. The research in this paper focuses on the potential long-term reasonable growth, which can not be fully predicted in some years. Next, let's compare the three major needs. It can be seen
from Figure 3.1 that the demand for urbanization will benefit from the demographic dividend and rapid urbanization from 2000 to 2018, and the new housing construction area will decrease from 3 in 2000. However, with the decline of the demographic dividend and the slowdown of urbanization progress, the demand for urbanization will decrease to about 300 million square meters in 2030.
Improved demand (under optimistic circumstances) has become the main force of real estate demand after 2016. With the improvement of people's demand for life improvement, this part of housing demand will remain relatively stable until 2030. The demand for
urban renewal is greatly affected by policies, such as shantytowns. Urban renewal is also constrained by local government financial pressures and policy regulations. Urban renewal will return to a relatively low growth period when homeowners do not speculate and do not demolish and build. In the demand for urban renewal between 2000 and 2030, the proportion of three items in Figure 3
is 31%, 49% and 20% respectively for urbanization, improved demand and urban renewal in 2020. In 2030, the three items accounted for 21%, 45% and 34% respectively. In terms of the total demand for
urban housing construction, the average annual demand for urban housing increased by 1.27 billion square meters from 2011 to 2015. Average annual demand for new urban housing in 2016-2020 15. Forecast average annual demand
for new urban housing in 2023-2030 12.4.
On the supply side, we see a sharp decline in the area of new housing construction and completion in 2022. Among them, the newly started residential area is only 880 million square meters, 16.4 square meters in 2020 and 14 square meters in 2021. The completed residential area in 2022 is about 6. The newly started residential area is lower than potential consumption in 2022.
.According to the sample of the Bureau of Statistics, the reasonable value of the completed residential area should be 6.5 ~ 7.
The completed residential area in 2022 is slightly lower than potential real demand by 3.8% -13. There is some room for completion and repair in 2023-2025, but the expected value should not be too high. At present, on the one hand, the
new residential area is subject to the pressure of sales repayment, financing and land purchase of real estate enterprises, on the other hand, the inventory backlog also needs a slow process of de-industrialization. With the dredging of policies, the support of funds and the supply-side reform of housing enterprises, the recovery of new construction has a long way to go, but the most depressed stage has expired. From 2023 to 2025, we are cautious and optimistic, especially with the relaxation of the epidemic and the recovery of the economy, the potential real demand has not disappeared.
5. We see that the demand for improvement has become the mainstay, and the demand for urban renewal will replace the demand for urbanization. In the three years of the epidemic from 2020 to 2022, the demand side of urban housing in China has been greatly affected, and the second-hand housing market, new housing sales and housing prices in the second and third tier cities can be clearly felt. However, the supply-side reform of supply-side housing enterprises has effectively reduced the pressure of new housing supply in 2023-2035.
From 2023 to 2030, although the demographic dividend is declining, the process of urbanization will continue, and improved demand will become the mainstay. Impact
on the commodity market: In 2023, real estate enterprises will continue to take guaranteed delivery and completion as the primary task. For non-ferrous metals with
completion as the main consumption, real estate consumption in 2023 (consumption growth of 0% -5%) is expected to be neutral and optimistic.
The new repair space is large, about 30% -40%, but the repair process will be relatively slow, mainly due to the pressure of sales repayment, financing, land purchase and so on. For industrial products with new construction as the main reference, the demand is not overly pessimistic, the worst stage is coming or has passed, and the real potential consumption has not faded: cautious treatment and optimistic expectation.
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