[原创]2023年三季度水泥价格指数运行监测报告

2023-10-11 09:30:38

三季度,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)季度均值从130.22下降至109.65,环比下降15.80%。

CEMPI环比下跌15.80%  终端需求疲态难改 金九行情预期落空

三季度,整体需求偏弱运行,受高温雨水天气影响,施工进度缓慢,气温转低后,部分地区频发台风洪涝灾害,后续天气转好,需求由弱求多,受成本驱动下水泥价格推涨,但终端恢复偏慢,涨价基础薄弱,难以完全落实。全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)季度均值从130.22下降至109.65,环比下降15.80%。六大区域需求呈弱态恢复,华东地区施工条件好转,市场销量增加;东北地区出货一般,观望心态浓厚;华北地区需求偏弱,价格调涨压力较大;西南地区库存高位承压,市场形势不容乐观;中南地区雨水天气较多,企业竞争激烈;西北地区下游需求改善有限,多地价格出现下调。

与去年同期相比,CEMPI下跌24.09%。

图1:三季度全国水泥价格比及同比走势

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com)

分月份看,7月份,工地及搅拌站施工进度放缓,夏季多地开展错峰停窑,虽供应保持地位,但市场竞争压力有只增不减。成本增加,伴随高温天气,电煤需求提升,煤炭价格总体上涨,水泥煤价差缩小,7月水泥行业利润继续恶化,CEMPI环比下跌6.78%;8月份,出于对旺季的预期,磨机运转率上升,供应小幅增加,不少地区推涨,但整体局面供需仍然大于需求,水泥价格小幅收跌。平均成本有所降低,随着气温走低,煤耗下降,成本压力小幅缓解,水泥煤价差缩小,8月CEMPI环比下降3.22%;9月份,需求恢复慢,不及往年旺季水平,因库存压力,部分地区主动加大错峰力度,受成本影响,部分地区推涨,因需求疲弱涨,难以完全落实涨价。平均成本小幅增加,煤矿受安检限制,供应收缩,煤价整荡走高,成本压力增大,水泥行业利润继续恶化,9月CEMPI环比下跌3.35%。

与PPI相比,CEMPI与PPI涨势一致,且CEMPI先于反应变化趋势。

图2:全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)与PPI环比走势(月)

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com) 

六大区域连续下跌  中南地区跌幅居首

分区域来看,三季度,中南地区水泥价格指数跌幅最大,跌幅为21.44%,华东、西南、西北、华北、东北五大区域价格跌幅分别为18.20%、14.22%、9.66%、8.94%、7.83%。

与去年同期相比,六大区域水泥价格指数全部下跌,华东地区跌幅居首,同比下跌27.84%。中南、华北、东北、西南、西北五大区域价格跌幅分别为25.94%、20.62%、19.95%、19.94%、12.50%。

图3:六大区域三季度水泥价格指数环比走势(%)

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com)

31省市价格跌多涨少 西藏涨幅最大

三季度,全国P.O42.5散装水泥价格有28个省份下跌,3个省份上涨。上涨省份数量上季度减少3个省份,在上涨省市中,西藏环比涨幅最高,达4.72%,对应季平均价格上涨29.52元/吨;新疆省环比上涨1.41%,对应平均价格上涨6.42元/吨,青海环比上涨0.58%,对应平均价格上涨2.57元/吨,具体环比及同比变化见表1。在28个下跌省市中,广西环比跌幅最高,跌达27.07%,对应季平均价格下跌115.57元/吨;江西环比下跌24.65%,对应季平均价格下跌99.20元/吨。其余下跌省市价格详情见表1。

图4:2023年三季度31省市P.O42.5散装水泥价格(元/吨)

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com)

表1:三季度全国31省市P.O42.5散装水泥平均价格、同比及环比监测

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com)


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Correlation

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the overall market demand in Northwest China has declined, some kilns have been shut down, and most prices are stable. For example, the cement market demand in Gansu is weak at present, especially in Lanzhou and its surrounding areas, the inventory of some manufacturers is not high.

2024-11-08 17:27:44

According to China Cement Market Data Center, cement prices in central and southern China rose steadily this week, pushing up 30-50 yuan/ton in Guangxi, and some low-priced enterprises reported an increase of 70 yuan/ton. This week, cement prices in eastern Hubei have gradually fallen back to the level before the last round of rise, and cement prices in many places in Hunan continue to rise.

2024-11-08 17:23:08

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in Chongqing in the southwest region is pushed up by 50-100 yuan/ton, and the implementation is to be observed; the price in Zhaotong in Yunnan is pushed up by 50 yuan/ton, and the implementation is to be observed; the price in Nanchong, Guang'an and Suining in Sichuan is pushed up by 50 yuan/ton, and the price in Yibin and Luzhou is partially dropped.

2024-11-08 17:19:35

In October, with the gradual decline of the national temperature, the northern project came to an end, and there was a small-scale rush to work in some areas, while the southern construction activities increased, the demand warmed up, and the shipment volume increased slightly. On the supply side, a number of sand and gravel aggregate projects have been successfully put into operation, production capacity has been released rapidly, sand and gravel prices have stopped falling slightly, and have entered a narrow range of volatility.

2024-11-05 11:42:36

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in many places in Yunnan in southwest China has risen by 100 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; Liangshan and Panzhihua in Sichuan have also begun to push up by 50 yuan/ton. In Guizhou, some major manufacturers in Qiannan, Qianxinan, Zunyi, Tongren and other regions have recently raised the cement price by 10-40 yuan/ton, while the quotation in other regions has been stable for the time being.

2024-11-01 17:32:29

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the Pearl River Delta in central and southern Guangdong is planning to continue to push up cement prices by 30-50 yuan/ton around the end of the month, and the Guangxi region is temporarily stable. Cement prices in Hunan and Hubei continued to rise by 30-50 yuan/ton.

2024-10-25 17:23:23

According to China Cement Market Data Center, the demand in Sichuan and Chongqing in Southwest China has improved, and the cement price has been steadily promoted; the price increase in Yunnan and Guizhou may be blocked. It is understood that the fourth quarter of Yunnan plans to implement peak staggering production for 51-60 days, affected by the policy, the output of enterprises in the region has declined, and the inventory has declined slightly.

2024-10-18 17:38:28

According to the China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in Lanzhou-Baiyin area of Gansu Province has risen by 10 yuan/ton; the prices in Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang and Shaanxi are stable. Affected by the big drop in temperature, rain and snow before the festival, the market demand in Qinghai has declined significantly. As the weather cleared up, cement sales in the region rebounded, and the market showed signs of warming up.

2024-10-12 17:29:56

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the market price of Sichuan and Chongqing in the southwest region continues to rise; Yunnan region is weak and stable; Zunyi, Guizhou has notified to raise the cement price by 10 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-10-12 17:26:43

According to China Cement Market Data Center, cement prices in central and southern Guangdong, western Guangdong and the Pearl River Delta region will be raised by 20-30 yuan/ton this week, and cement prices in Guangxi will also be raised. The Hubei region continued to push up 30-50 yuan/ton, the overall market in Hunan was stable and small, and the Yueyang region was notified to rise.

2024-10-12 17:23:19

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, the implementation of cement prices in the Pearl River Delta region of Guangdong in the central and southern regions is general, while the Guangxi region is stable and declining. Eastern Hubei and other regions plan to push up the price of cement by 30 yuan/ton again. Driven by the price increase in eastern Hubei, individual market prices in Hunan have been notified to rise again.

2024-09-27 16:48:15

In the long run, the core factor restricting the rise of cement price lies in the serious overcapacity. At present, the real utilization rate of clinker production capacity has reached a new low level in recent years, and the problem of excess contradiction is extremely acute. Only by taking effective measures to resolutely reduce production capacity and solve the persistent illness, can cement price be guided to return to the normal level.

2024-09-20 11:03:39

Demand is declining, supply is increasing, and the price of sand and gravel industry is adjusted in an all-round way.

2024-07-31 15:56:20

In the past two decades, the demand change of China's cement industry has gone through three development stages: high-speed development period (2004-2012), high-level platform period (2013-2021), and downward demand period (from 2022 to now).

2024-07-23 16:45:00

Tapai Group issued a performance forecast for the first half of 2024. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company during the reporting period was RMB218,586,600 to RMB242,874,000, representing a decrease of 55% to 50% as compared with the same period of last year.

2024-07-09 09:30:18

In the second quarter, the domestic rainwater was on the high side, coupled with the tight market funds, the supply and demand of the concrete industry were weak, and the National Commodity Concrete Price Index (CONCPI) fell by 3.35% annually, which was wider than the previous value.

2024-07-08 14:17:39

According to the data center of China Cement Network, the cost of cement production has risen, and the price of cement in Dali and Lijiang areas of Yunnan has risen again by 30 yuan/ton. The market demand in Sichuan and Chongqing is weak, and local cement prices have fallen.

2024-06-28 17:06:31

Traditional investment in infrastructure construction is difficult to support strong demand for cement.

2024-05-30 16:02:02

The reduction of new construction projects and the weakness of infrastructure have a direct impact on cement demand.

2024-05-21 09:52:34

At the beginning of April, the National Cement Price Index (CEMPI) was 104.8 points, closing at 108.1 points at the end of the month, up 2.51% annually and down 20.36% year-on-year.

2024-05-07 16:54:23

The economic slowdown is another challenge facing the U.S. cement market in 2024.

2024-04-28 17:17:33

According to China Cement Network Cement Big Data Research Institute, more than 90% of cement enterprises will fall into losses in the first quarter.

2024-04-23 14:31:56

In the first quarter of 2024, the demand for infrastructure fell short of expectations, housing projects continued to shrink, and the concrete industry continued to weaken. By the end of March, the National Concrete Price Index (CONCPI) closed at 122.38 points, down 1.8% from the beginning of the year. Compared with the same period in 2023, the concrete price index fell by 12.8%.

2024-04-22 10:18:23

The current supply and demand situation is still poor, the basis for price increases is not solid, many enterprises are still on the sidelines, we should calmly look at this round of large-scale push up cement prices in the Yangtze River Delta region.

2024-04-15 17:49:07

The downstream construction in the northern region is still general, the demand recovery is less than expected, and the cement price is weak and stable; the shipment in some parts of the southern region has improved, coupled with the long-term low price operation, the enterprise has a strong willingness to raise prices. Generally speaking, the recovery of demand is limited, but driven by the general rise in the Yangtze River Delta region, the national cement price has stopped falling and turned to rise.

2024-04-15 15:30:35

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the demand in many places is not good, and the price of cement is under pressure.

2024-04-08 10:15:54

In March, as the temperature in the southern region warms up, demand is expected to take the lead in recovering, but the northern region is still lagging behind, coupled with the convening of the "two sessions" and the time needed for project deployment and capital landing, the market is expected to be under great pressure in the first quarter of this year.

2024-02-22 09:09:46

[Cement Big Data Research Institute] Cement Industry Chain Index Weekly Report (2024.01.19)

2024-01-19 17:19:56

In the fourth quarter, the construction in some regions in China was gradually completed, and the scale of rush work was less than that of the same period in previous years. In addition, the focus of the work of the mixing station shifted to repayment, the market supply and demand continued to weaken, and the price of concrete was mainly low. Overall, the national commodity concrete price index (CONCPI) fell 2.98% in the fourth quarter.

2024-01-04 15:35:25

2023年,下游终端市场仍然面临资金偏紧的局面,多数区域施工增量不及预期,加之上游企业竞争加剧,成本端支撑乏力,混凝土行业易跌难涨,效益进一步走弱……

2023-12-21 09:21:01

截至11月底,全国碎石价格指数(CSPI)报收84.54点,环比上涨0.45%,同比下跌6.09%。全国机制砂价格指数(MSPI)报收88.96点,环比上涨0.82%,同比下跌7.26%。

2023-12-04 11:54:11

中国水泥网董事长邵俊致欢迎辞。

2023-11-29 08:42:36

2023年前三季度,天山股份实现营业收入803.87亿元,同比下降18.5%,归属于母公司股东净利润0.51亿元,同比下降98.75%。

2023-10-30 09:46:41

整体而言,尽管万亿国债增发对水泥行业偏向利好,但笔者认为这种积极影响主要还是体现在情绪上,真实需求影响比较有限。

2023-10-25 16:59:22

[水泥大数据研究院]水泥产业链指数运行周报(2023.10.20)

2023-10-20 17:17:49

三季度,国内高温雨水天气增多,下游施工强度减弱,混凝土市场供需双弱,企业报价普遍下调。整体来看,三季度全国商品混凝土价格指数(CONCPI)环比下跌5.87%……

2023-10-11 09:31:34

三季度,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)季度均值从130.22下降至109.65,环比下降15.80%。

2023-10-11 09:30:38

2023年上半年度国内砂石价格整体弱势运行。截至6月底,全国碎石价格指数报收85.49点,同比下跌8.37%。全国机制砂价格指数报收90.98点,同比下跌6.72%。一季度砂石价格呈下降趋势,随后砂石价格在短时间内回升,但二季度砂石价格跌幅加大。

2023-08-08 09:07:52

[水泥大数据研究院]水泥产业链指数运行周报(2023.8.4)

2023-08-04 18:02:26

6月进入传统淡季,全国砂石需求趋弱运行,整体价格继续小幅下行

2023-07-10 15:05:44

二季度,国内资金环境仍然偏紧,下游施工项目增长乏力,混凝土市场需求弱势运行,价格普遍跟随原料下调。整体来看,二季度全国商品混凝土价格指数(CONCPI)环比下跌2.16%……

2023-07-10 11:05:42

本周五,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)报收115.35点,环比下跌1.92%,同比下跌19.71%。

2023-07-07 18:24:55

[水泥大数据研究院]水泥产业链指数运行周报(2023.7.7)

2023-07-07 17:19:08

5月初全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)为135.74点,月末报收126.54点,环比下跌6.77%,同比下跌20.46%

2023-06-01 15:50:55

生存都变得异常艰难,水泥企业该如何立足当前市场环境,提高自身的竞争力?

2023-05-29 09:28:02

更需要思考的是,在错峰生产之外,水泥行业是否能找到更有效的化解产能过剩的路径和方法,毕竟归根到底,超产问题愈演愈烈的背后,错峰生产常态化也是重要推手。

2023-05-29 09:24:26

上周,我们对外发布了2022年中国水泥企业水泥及熟料销量十强榜单。这次榜单,如果扣除贸易部分,十强企业的水泥及熟料总销量是10.8亿吨左右,同比下滑12%,海螺水泥、红狮集团和亚洲水泥降幅在5%~7%,明显低于其他七家企业,华新水泥降幅最大。

2023-05-17 16:23:32

面对市场需求下滑,水泥价格处于低位,企业缺乏预期,信心下降,为抢占市场,而“小动作”不断。

2023-05-16 15:49:39

当前下游需求羸弱,加之阴雨天气频发,预计本周水泥价格将延续弱势运行态势。

2023-05-15 09:47:38

[水泥大数据研究院]水泥产业链指数运行周报(2023.5.12)

2023-05-12 17:29:19

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.