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1. [Overview of Cement Market] September: Terminal Demand Weakness Is Hard to Change, Jinjiu Market Expectations Fail! (Click the title to view the full text)
October national market outlook: On the demand side, the temperature continued to drop in October, which is conducive to outdoor construction, and many places accelerated the end-of-season sprint, but the drag of new real estate construction is still there, and demand is expected to remain weak recovery. Supply side, the market downturn, enterprise inventory pressure, Henan, Fujian and other places continue to increase the intensity of peak staggering, the supply side as a whole is expected to shrink;
To sum up, the supply-demand relationship will improve to a certain extent in October, coupled with the increase in production costs caused by the high level of coal, enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices, but the logic of sluggish demand will still dominate the market trend, and it is expected that the increase in cement prices in October will be relatively limited.
2. Prices in many places are rising in turn, and the cement industry is out of the cold winter?
As for the reasons for the price rise, many people in the cement industry said that due to the rising prices of raw materials such as coal, the cost of cement production has increased, while the price of cement has dropped to a lower level, and cement enterprises have a strong willingness to promote the price rise. In addition, the demand side is still weak, but the ring ratio shows a slow upward trend, coupled with the implementation of off-peak production in many places, the contradiction between supply and demand has been alleviated.
Generally speaking, there is a strong atmosphere of price increase in the market. As for the reasons for the price rise, the above-mentioned market participants said that in the traditional peak season, although the downstream demand is still weak, the national cement price has maintained an upward trend due to the impact of rising prices of raw materials and fuels, superimposed peak staggering production.
& lt; Today's Focus & gt
. According to the UBS research report, real estate sales are expected to fall by 10% this year and by another 5% to 10% next year; In the next two years, new construction will fall by 25% and 10%, and real estate investment will fall by 10% and 5%. The next two or three years will be a period of turbulence and integration for the cement industry to rebuild a new balance and order under the circumstances of major changes in the supply and demand pattern. With the slowdown of China's economic growth and the irreversible trend of the overall contraction of the real estate industry in the medium and long term, the overall demand for cement tends to decrease irreversibly.
2. Xinjiang: Cement demand is expected to increase by more than
5% in 2023, and a large number of major infrastructure construction will start within this year. Infrastructure construction is expected to continue to maintain a relatively high growth, and real estate investment, which has fallen sharply, is expected to improve under the new policy. At the same time, projects that failed to land due to the disturbance of the epidemic and insufficient project funds are expected to start construction gradually. It is expected that the demand for cement in Xinjiang will increase steadily in 2023, with a growth rate of more than 5%.
On October 9, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a typical case of power demand side management in the national industrial field. Publicity time: October 9, 2023-October 13, 2023. Among them, Sinoma Anhui Cement Co., Ltd. and Zanhuang Jinyu Cement Co., Ltd. are listed in the typical cases of power demand side management in the national industrial field.
. Recently, Guangxi issued the Notice on Organizing and Declaring Policy Support Funds for Industrial Speed-up and Efficiency Enhancement. Guangxi cement enterprises that sell cement clinker to the market outside the region by water transport through Changzhou Lock and Beibu Gulf Port will be given logistics subsidies and the cost of passing the lock will be reduced or exempted. This time, Guangxi's strong support for cement products to open up markets outside the region may enable some cement enterprises to increase their efforts to deliver cement products to the Guangdong cement market. Although this is good for Guangxi cement enterprises, it can be said that it will increase the pressure on the Guangdong cement market, which is not very optimistic at present.
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