Glass :
The spot demand for glass is strong, and the replenishment logic cannot be falsified. Recently, the daily production and sales of Shahe and Hubei are above 100%. It is expected that the glass inventory will continue to be depleted this week, and the middle and lower reaches will continue to be replenished, and there is no significant decline. Although the current order data is still weak, and real estate sales have not improved significantly, housing funds are still under pressure, but compared with the inventory days in early May, there is still some room for replenishment. Therefore, the logic of short-term replenishment driving price rise can not be falsified when spot production and sales are strong after the macro expectation of warming up.
We have always believed that the stock demand for glass in real estate exists, because there are a large number of uncompleted real estate projects that have not installed glass in the early stage, and with the alleviation of the real estate capital problem, this part of the demand will be gradually replenished. This part of the real demand needs to see the recovery of real estate sales, and the improvement of housing enterprises'funds can be stimulated. However, the downstream replenishment demand may start in advance because of the expected change, so the short-term replenishment can not be falsified, but it will consume the subsequent real demand in advance.
At the same time, we should clearly realize that the demand for glass after next year will be affected by the sharp decline in new construction. Therefore, we believe that the demand for glass will rebound for a short time this year, and then gradually enter the downward cycle. Considering that the supply is still being repaired, the supply and demand of glass is still weak under the long-term logic. The core contradiction of
supply is still profit. The current glass spot basically has a high profit in the whole industry. The resumption of production line is driven by existence. From the schedule, the overall supply plan this year is still positive growth. The current daily melting volume of float glass is 163800 tons. If the enterprise resumes production and cold repair according to the schedule, At the end of the year, the daily melting volume may reach 170000 tons. The overall supply has a relatively obvious upward trend, but the supply is generally a slow variable, the core needs to see whether the terminal demand can improve significantly this year.
To sum up, the strength of glass is driven by the macro recovery and the short-term replenishment of the spot side. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, spot profits are relatively thick, and the momentum of supply recovery remains unchanged. Demand side, from the current deep processing orders, the real demand has not been significantly repaired. However, from the deep processing of the original film inventory days, there is indeed a replenishment space downstream, so the short-term replenishment logic can not be falsified after the emotional warming. Short-term focus on future spot production and sales, if production and sales continue to be strong, it is expected that the market will remain volatile and strong, but the logic of long-term supply and demand weakening has not changed. Operationally, it is suggested to lay out 9-1 positive sets when production and sales are strong, and to meet the high-altitude glass 01 contract after production and sales are weak.
Soda ash:
After the whole float glass industry is gradually profitable, it is expected that the production will be gradually resumed and the daily melting will be slowly improved. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has increased slightly, and the current daily melting volume is 86,300 tons/day. The rigid demand is calculated by the alkali consumption coefficient of 0.2. At present, due to the overhaul of some alkali plants, there is a certain gap between the output and the rigid demand. From the point of view of rigid demand, the heavy alkali inventory of the whole industry should decline in the near future. From the basic point of view, the demand is not particularly bad, but under the consistent bearish expectation, the downstream wait-and-see is the majority, mainly consuming its own inventory.
The buyer's market structure is difficult to reverse without changing the expectation of large-scale production. Unless there is a large gap between supply and demand leading to periodic supply and demand tension, the willingness of downstream replenishment will remain weak. Therefore, the core point is not the rigid demand and downstream replenishment, but whether the alkali plant can overhaul and reduce production capacity, maintain the fundamentals in a tight state, so that the industry-wide inventory and factory inventory continue to be degraded. Otherwise, under the balance of supply and demand, the internal game price of alkali plants is still weak and volatile. The downstream of
light alkali has been repaired recently, the production of lithium carbonate has rebounded, the operating rate of baking soda has rebounded, and there is basically no inventory in the middle and lower reaches of the early stage. After the short-term demand has improved, the replenishment of light alkali has made the light alkali continue to go to the warehouse substantially, and the heavy quality rate of enterprises has been reduced, which further maintains the gap between supply and demand at the end of heavy alkali.
Recently, some alkali plants have started maintenance, and the market has announced that some alkali plants have maintenance plans. At present, the specific maintenance plan has not been verified. The current doubt in the market is whether the overhaul will be more economical in the future when the spot is still profitable and the future is expected to be bearish. In this regard, our view is that the current alkali plant still has a certain amount of inventory, the alkali plant still has the power to implement maintenance, but the probability of insufficient market supply caused by a large number of centralized maintenance is relatively small, and the greater possibility is off-peak maintenance.
At present, from the point of view of rigid demand and output, as long as there is a million-ton large plant overhaul, there will be a certain gap between basic supply and demand. If the off-peak maintenance can last for a month, the inventory of the whole industry may be reduced to a fairly low position, and the spot of soda ash may gradually stabilize. Waiting for the next round of yuanxing product impact, but yuanxing product may be in July, so short-term soda ash is the possibility of a phased stabilization rebound.
However, it is undeniable that from the perspective of lengthening the cycle, it is difficult to reverse the general trend of loose overall supply and demand pattern after large-scale production. If the short-term maintenance volume is not enough and the contradiction is not prominent enough, it is vulnerable to the long-term downward logic. In the context of large-scale production
this year, we believe that alkali plants should take reducing their own inventory as the primary goal and high profit as the secondary goal. The downstream mentality is more positive in taking goods under tight supply and demand, and negative in taking goods under balanced supply and demand. Therefore, when the accumulated signals of factories and warehouses appear, the fundamentals are actually excessive from tension to balance or even loose. After inventory is accumulated, alkali plant profit is higher, because maintain oneself zero inventory is higher target, alkali plant abandoned partial profit very easily, alkali plant interior is rolled inside accentuation, spot falls, downstream wait-and-see state of mind is thicker, because this price drops quickly.
Similarly, in the current situation of low willingness to hold goods in the downstream, if the alkali plant inventory can continue to go to the warehouse, it shows that there is a large gap between supply and demand, the downstream just needs to replenish the warehouse, the spot or gradually stabilize. Therefore, we believe that the current soda ash inventory is still the most important indicator. Among the factors affecting the soda ash inventory, we believe that the path of reducing production can only be achieved as long as the alkali plant is overhauled, because the downstream willingness to hold goods cannot be changed under the background of large-scale production, and the current growth rate of downstream demand is relatively small, which is not enough to create a gap between supply and demand. Therefore, the core of the follow-up is to judge when the gap between the overhaul of the alkali plant and the rigid demand is large enough, so that the alkali plant can gradually start to stand up after going to the warehouse, and finally use the inventory to verify the judgment.
Inventory is still the key indicator for the follow-up. If the alkali plant is overhauled and the plant warehouse continues to go to the warehouse, the fundamentals will bottom out in stages, the downstream will begin to replenish the warehouse, and the tight fundamentals may be traded in stages. If the inventory is unsustainable, the spot has not yet bottomed out, and the cost is expected to decline for a long time, there is still room below. Operationally, it is suggested to wait and see whether there is an expected difference between the maintenance of yuanxing and Alkali Plant in the near future, and the contract of 01 in the far month above the cost line.
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