With the release of production capacity, the price of silicon materials has fallen rapidly. In early June (2023), the price of single crystal dense materials dropped to 100 yuan/kg. Falling
silicon prices are good for end users first.". From January to April 2023, the domestic PV installed capacity increased by 186% year-on-year to 48 GW; the export of modules increased by 41% year-on-year to 69 GW.
Followed by downstream manufacturers. As the price reduction of silicon wafers, batteries and components is less than that of silicon materials, the gross profit margin of related manufacturers has increased.
Silicon material manufacturers will be divided. The profit of Tongwei's silicon material sales will be reduced, while the supply with less advanced technology, smaller scale and lower cost will be eliminated.
In 2022, Tongwei "risked the world's condemnation" to integrate downward. In 2023, the gross profit of component business may increase by an order of magnitude.
Difficult Diversification
In 2006, Tongwei Group entered the year", and Tongwei acquired "Tongwei New Energy" and "Yongxiang Shares" (mainly engaged in silicon materials) at a total consideration of 2 billion yuan. To issue 2.
In 2016, Tongwei shares issued 9. In addition, Tongwei shares also raised matching funds of 3 billion yuan through private placement. According to the business commitment, the net profit of Hefei Tongwei from 2016 to 2019 reached 390 million, 600 million, 770 million and 8.
In 2017, the revenue of battery/component group was 6.4 billion, high purity silicon (polysilicon) 3.2 billion and photovoltaic power 800 million, totaling 9.2 billion. In
2019, the revenue of battery/component group was 12.27 billion yuan, the revenue of high-purity silicon was 5.18 billion yuan, and the revenue of photovoltaic power was 1.1 billion yuan, totaling 17.1 billion yuan, accounting for 46% of the total revenue
. Photovoltaic business exploded. In 2022, Battery/component group revenue 53.5 billion, high purity silicon 61.8 billion, Photovoltaic power 16.
Tiger Sniff, Diversification is divided into three levels of difficulty:
primary: relying on existing equipment, technology and channels to launch new categories, which is the least difficult diversification, called "concentric diversification". For example, mobile phone factories make tablet computers.
Intermediate: use scale and volume to develop business to the upstream or downstream of the industrial chain, which is called "vertical integration". For example, Gree and the United States are involved in compressors, industrial robots and other businesses.
Advanced: no technology/talent accumulation, no relevant capacity, no brand/channel. It can be called "three without cross-border" diversification. Weitong, which started with feed, and BYD, which started with rechargeable batteries, are rare successful cases.
- Capacity "three missing one"
photovoltaic industry can be roughly divided into four links: silicon materials, silicon wafers, batteries and components. Tongwei starts with silicon materials and lays out batteries at the same time. The component business did not start until the second half of 2022. Only in the silicon wafer sector, Tongwei has not entered on a large scale for the time being due to the duopoly of TCL Zhonghuan and Longji.
In 2017, as soon as the production capacity of polysilicon was increased to 20,000 tons, Tongwei launched two "50,000 tons of crystalline silicon projects" in Leshan and Baotou. In 2020, Tongwei's monocrystalline silicon production capacity will reach 80,000 tons, and Leshan Phase II and Baotou Phase II projects (with a planned capacity of 150,000 tons) will be launched. By the end of
2022, the production capacity of crystalline silicon will be 260,000 tons, with 320,000 tons under construction;
by the end of 2023, the production capacity of crystalline silicon will reach 380,000 tons (monocrystalline rate exceeding 99%). In addition, two 200 thousand tons projects in Inner Mongolia and Yunnan (Longji shares) have been announced.
According to the plan, the production capacity of silicon materials will reach 800 thousand to 1 million tons in 2026.
Photovoltaic cells
In 2017, the photovoltaic cell production capacity of Hefei Tongwei's two production bases reached 5.
In 2018, Tongwei's photovoltaic cell production capacity reached 12 GW, maintaining the world's first.
In 2021 and 2022, the production capacity of Tongwei photovoltaic cells has increased to 45 GW and 70 GW (of which 182 is more than 95%).
It is estimated that in 2023, the production capacity of Tongwei photovoltaic cells will be between 80 GW and 100 GW, and in 2026, it will reach 130 GW to 150 GW.
Component
2022 H2, Tongwei's rapid layout of component business, rapid formation of 14GW production capacity, annual shipment 7.
Tongwei's large-scale entry into component business is not a whim. When the value of silicon materials was high and they made a lot of money, Tongwei invested heavily in integration. When the production capacity of silicon materials is excessive in stages and the industry profit center moves downstream, Tongwei "has been waiting here".
It is estimated that by the end of 2023, the production capacity of Tongwei modules will reach 80 GW. Longji will ship 48GW of modules
in 2022; the module production capacity is expected to be 130GW by the end of 2023. In 2023, Tongwei's shipments will exceed Longji's in 2022, and its production capacity will reach 60% of Longji's at the end of the year.
The technology is slightly inferior to TCL Central, the scale is pursued by Tongwei, and Longji is under great pressure.
"Davis Double Click" is not accidental
. In 2021, the sales volume of Tongwei Silicon Material exceeded 100,000 tons, ranking first in the world for many years, with a domestic market share of 22% (CPIA statistics).
In 2022, the sales volume of silicon materials increased by 138% to 25.
In 2022, the global PV installed capacity exceeded expectations, disrupting the pace of upstream expansion. Due to the large investment scale, long construction period and lagging capacity expansion in the silicon material sector, the supply of silicon materials is tight, and the price continues to rise and remain at a high level.
In 2022, the average annual sales of silicon materials in Tongwei exceeded 240 yuan/kg (240000 yuan/ton), up 38% from 2021.
In 2022, Tongwei batteries shipped 48 GW (up 37% year-on-year) and components shipped 7.94 GW (up 226% year-on-year). Total 55.
In 2022, the average sales price of Tongwei batteries/modules was 0. Part of the reason was that the proportion of module shipments increased to 14% (7% in 2021), while the price of modules increased less than that of batteries.
under
extreme conditions 1) Silicon materials
In 2019, the shipment price of Tongwei high-purity silicon materials was 81 yuan/kg, with a gross profit margin of 28%; In 2020, the shipment price dropped to 75 yuan/kg, but the gross profit margin increased by 7 percentage points to 35%, which shows the effect of cost control.
In the following two years, the price of silicon materials entered the upstream channel. In 2022, the gross profit of Tongwei's high-purity silicon business was 46.5 billion, and the gross profit margin was 75%! Ccement. Com/richtext/IMG/nylqlc61jtq 1686638054255.2022 are selling for 4 cents a watt more than they did in 2019, but their margins have been cut in half. Silicon material tap Tongwei is still like this, you can imagine how difficult it is for other component manufacturers.
In 2023, the price of silicon materials went down, falling below 100 yuan in early June. In 2020, the average shipment price of silicon materials was 75 yuan, and the gross profit margin of Tongwei was as high as 35%. In 2023, the shipment volume of Tongwei silicon materials will be four times that of 2020 ( shipment in 2020). With the combination of technological progress, cost control ability and scale benefit, the gross profit margin of Tongwei silicon materials business should be maintained at more than 40%.
2) The profitability
of Tongwei battery/module business is much lower than that of silicon materials. In 2021, the shipment price of 35 GW and the unit price of 0.
2022, the shipment price of batteries/components increased to 0.
2022, Tongwei's gross profit was 54.4 billion, of which silicon materials contributed 46.5 billion, accounting for 85
. It is of little significance for Tongwei to make batteries/components. At best, it will increase the gross profit by 10%. However, the proportion of profit sharing in the silicon material sector is too large, which will inhibit the release of terminal demand and hinder the healthy development of the industry, so the high price and high profit of silicon material are unsustainable.
Tongwei's open plan is to use the money earned from silicon materials to lay out the downstream, forming a huge and relatively advanced production capacity (due to the rapid iteration of photovoltaic industry technology, the prominent advantage of backwardness, the later the production capacity is built, the more advanced it is), waiting for the profit center of photovoltaic industry to move down, using battery/module income to make up for silicon materials, smoothing the performance growth curve.
In 2023, the price of silicon materials fell, and the component sector benefited the most. Tongwei component business will usher in a "big outbreak", with shipments expected to grow by 400% year-on-year.
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