Turkey is one of the major exporters of soda ash in the world. This paper analyzes the impact of the earthquake on the development of soda ash from the perspective of the world soda ash trade pattern and the distribution of soda ash resources in Turkey.
China is a net exporter of soda ash, but the export only accounts for about 6% of the total output. It is expected that the short-term event disturbance will be difficult to change the pattern of tight domestic supply and demand before the landing of new domestic production units, and the spot price of soda ash may be difficult to fall before May.
1. Global trade pattern
of soda ash 1. Distribution
of global production and sales of soda ash The global production capacity of soda ash is about 72 million tons, mainly distributed in Asia, Europe, North America and other places. Asia is the most concentrated area of soda ash production capacity (45% in China, 8% in Turkey and 6% in India). Soda ash production capacity in North America accounts for nearly 20%, basically from the United States. Europe is the birthplace of ammonia-soda process, and its production process is all ammonia-soda process, accounting for nearly 20% of global production capacity.
In the 21st century, with the rapid development of the three major economies in China, Europe and the United States, the demand for glass has been stimulated by the vigorous growth of real estate and automobiles, which has led to the rapid growth of global soda consumption. In recent years, the support of new energy industry in China and Europe has made photovoltaic glass and lithium carbonate a new demand growth point for soda ash. At present, Asia, Europe and North America account for more than 80% of the world's soda ash consumption, of which Asia accounts for nearly 60%, concentrated in China (43%, the world's largest soda ash consumption market), India, Korea, Japan, and Southeast Asia accounts for about 5%. The demand for soda ash in Europe is second only to that in Asia, accounting for more than 20%, and some of them need to rely on imports. North American demand accounts for about 11% and is concentrated in the United States, which accounts for nearly 20% of production capacity, so the rest of the United States is used for exports.
From the perspective of supply and demand, more than 11 million tons of new production capacity are planned to be added in 2023-2025, of which the most important is yuanxing Energy Trona, totaling 7.8 million tons. From the perspective of the main downstream of soda ash, China's glass production accounts for about half of the world's total. In addition, with the development of photovoltaics in recent years. Photovoltaic glass will become the growth point of domestic soda ash demand (about 80% of international photovoltaic modules use Chinese photovoltaic glass). Overall, China's soda ash status in the world may be further enhanced in the future.
According to the most expensive single month of China's export average unit price last year, the average unit price of China's soda ash export in August 2022 was 421 US dollars/ton. The price of short orders exported from the United States to Southeast Asia in the international market is 420-450 US dollars per ton, and the CIF price is 300-350 US dollars per ton. Among them, the long association order plus tariff and other fees are equivalent to nearly 3000 yuan/ton, and the short order is close to 4000 yuan/ton. However, China's soda ash export does not need to pay tariffs, and has preferential export tax rebates, which has an advantage of nearly 1000 yuan/ton compared with the international market.
In addition, China's soda ash exports are mainly in Southeast Asia, due to transportation problems in the United States and Turkey, China has also increased exports in South America and Africa. The impact of the earthquake in
Turkey on international soda ash trade is expected to be limited
. In 2017, the Kazan trona project in Turkey was completed, and the total production capacity of three domestic soda ash manufacturers reached 5.3 million tons, making Turkey the third largest soda ash producer in the world after China and the United States. The expansion of production lines after the epidemic has made the total production capacity of soda ash in Turkey close to 6 million tons. As the second largest soda ash exporter in the world, its exports to Western Europe, Southeast Asia and Africa account for 70% of its total exports. Because of its advantages of low cost, short distance and price, its export share is also increasing. On February 6,
2023, two events occurred in Turkey. 7. The main area of Turkey's alkali mines is located in Bepazari, Ankara Basin, and the factories are concentrated in the surrounding cities of the capital Ankara. It is expected that the impact of the earthquake on soda ash production will be limited. In addition, as the price of the International Soda Ash Trade Association is relatively fixed, the price is also difficult to fluctuate under the influence of short-term emergencies. It is expected that it will only affect the scattered orders of new transactions.
However, from 2023, the domestic supply and demand pattern of soda ash will gradually turn to be relaxed, mainly due to the launch of new production capacity such as yuanxing, and the big cycle of domestic soda ash rising or temporarily coming to an end, but the United States and Turkey are likely to find it difficult to accept low-price exports to Southeast Asia, so it is expected that China's exports to Southeast Asia will remain high. However, the export price will be gradually reduced.
On the whole, although China is a net exporter of soda ash and occupies a certain position in the international trade pattern of soda ash, the decline of soda ash export in 2023 will be a big probability event under the influence of many factors, but in terms of the total amount, the total domestic export volume accounts for about 5-6% of the output, and the annual export decline of 1-2% is only about 300000 tons. The average monthly impact of less than 20000 tons, in the new production plant before landing, the reduction of exports is expected to be more difficult to change the short-term pattern of tight supply and demand. At present, the low inventory of alkali plants and downstream glass plants is a realistic performance. In the current high price and the weak expectation of the far month, the downstream glass plants will not have too high willingness to hoard raw materials, but only to maintain the demand can also ensure that the alkali plant orders are sufficient. So overall, this year's focus is still on the progress of new production in the upstream, and it may be difficult for the spot price of soda ash to fall before May.
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