2023年,河南水泥市场或将打响“价格战”

2023-02-18 13:56:54

2023年,河南水泥市场的“价格战”在所难免。尽管“价格战”可能十分惨烈,但一些落后的水泥企业及粉磨站会因此淘汰,促使各水泥企业对市场形成更加清晰的认知,反过来推动行业良性发展。

2022年,全国水泥市场下行、供需矛盾尖锐,产量也创近11年来新低。

中国水泥网近日调研河南水泥市场时了解到,受房地产行业态势下行、疫情反复等因素的影响,2022年的河南水泥需求大幅下滑,同比跌幅达到17.9%,全省停窑时间近180天,比2021年增加30天。

价格方面,与往年元宵节后价格会小幅上涨的情况不同,目前的河南地区水泥价格仍无起色。当前河南市场产销双弱,基本处于半停滞状态,同时由于节前各地水泥价格已普遍跌至相对低位,短期内水泥价格不会有明显变动。

日前,河南一水泥企业负责人在接受中国水泥网采访时表示,去年河南疫情反复,许多工程项目不得不停工,再加之物流受阻、水泥运输不畅,极大地拖累了水泥需求。

此外,房地产行业下行也给河南水泥市场需求造成不小的冲击。

据中国水泥网了解,近年来,房地产已成为河南水泥需求的最主要来源,可以说房地产行业的兴衰就代表了河南水泥行业的兴衰。

上述水泥企业负责人透露道,郑州是河南多家水泥企业的核心市场,但郑州去年的房地产项目烂尾率极高;一众知名房企暴雷,地产下行趋势难止,严重打击了房地产行业的投资信心,水泥需求也陷入“狂跌”。

“即使是到现在,水泥需求仍然没有抬头迹象,甚至现在的水泥需求还不及去年同期。”该水泥企业负责人表示,由于投资尚未到位,许多重点工程、基建项目还未开工,水泥需求也没有起色。

同时,湖北、陕西等地的低价水泥涌入河南,也对河南的水泥市场造成不小的冲击。

2022年,河南水泥行业已然跌落谷底。对于2023年的河南水泥市场,上述水泥企业负责人则持相对乐观的看法。

一方面,尽管2022年水泥行业景气度惨淡,但水泥是刚需,中国的体量是庞大的,水泥一定会有需求,并且今年疫情影响式微,水泥行业将会有所恢复。

政策上,今年的工作重点在于保民生和稳经济大盘,这就要发挥基建对经济的兜底作用;加之开年来各地新部署许多重大项目,资金到位后去年因故搁置的项目今年也将大量动工,基建将会有效地刺激水泥需求。2023年河南的水泥需求一定大于去年。

另一方面,河南水泥价格不断下滑,至今没有任何抬头迹象。

该水泥企业负责人判断,2023年,河南水泥市场的“价格战”在所难免。尽管“价格战”可能十分惨烈,但一些落后的水泥企业及粉磨站会因此淘汰,促使各水泥企业对市场形成更加清晰的认知,反过来推动行业良性发展。

该水泥企业负责人还表示,政策落地需要时间,需求的产生也需要时间;人得过病需要一段时间调理恢复,水泥行业也需要时间慢慢复苏。疫情已经过去,河南水泥行业去年已经触底,今后一定一年比一年好,大家要对水泥行业保持信心。

另悉,3月15-16日,中国水泥网将在杭州举办“2023中国水泥产业峰会暨颁奖典礼”,届时全国水泥及相关行业同仁将共聚一堂,探讨未来宏观经济和水泥市场走势,敬请关注。

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According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the price of cement in the Pearl River Delta region of Guangdong in central and southern China has recovered by 10-15 yuan/ton, and the quotation in Guangxi is temporarily stable. Prices in some areas of the two lakes have fallen in the early stage, and the overall market is mainly stable this week.

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According to the market data of China Cement Network, the rise in raw materials has led to an increase in production costs, and enterprises in eastern Hubei and Changde have notified an increase in cement prices by 20-30 yuan/ton.

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