The national glass market began to decline after two months of rising.
Recently, North China has taken the lead in reducing prices, with a general decline of 20-30 yuan per heavy box, while other regions are mainly stable for the time being. According to the data monitoring of the digital building materials network, the national float glass quotation this week is 1680 yuan/ton; the quotation in North China is 1650 yuan/ton, with a ring ratio of -1.79%.
Since the optimization of the epidemic prevention policy in December last year, the demand suppressed by the epidemic began to release, and with the continuous improvement of the real estate policy, the glass inventory opened the mode of destocking, and the inventory reduction continued until the lunar new year ago. On December 8, the total inventory of float glass in China was about 72.8218 million heavy boxes, but as of January 19, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises in China was 64.327 million heavy boxes, and the inventory decreased by 8.4948 million heavy boxes in two months. After
the year, although the inventory rose to 77.808 million heavy boxes due to the Spring Festival holidays, it was affected by the expected macro-improvement. Even in the case of uncertain demand from downstream processing plants, the market trading atmosphere remained strong in the first week of the year, with the glass inventory in that week being -1.28%. Glass prices also rose from 1627 yuan/heavy box at the end of the year to 1677 yuan/heavy box.
However, this trend of destocking was reversed last week.
As of February 9, the output of float glass was 1.1115 million tons, with a week-on-week ratio of + 0.63%, and the inventory of Shahe manufacturers increased to about 8.8 million heavy boxes; the production and sales of the original glass manufacturers in East China ranged from 50% to 80%; the downstream of Central China mainly purchased just needed, and the downstream of South China purchased cautiously. Market wait-and-see sentiment spread, and overall production and sales were flat. Insufficient downstream deep processing orders and the overall decline of the market under the situation of high inventory are the main reasons for this week's market trend callback.
Many people in the industry are beginning to worry about whether the glass market in 2023 will re-interpret the old drama of the whole year of 2022?
Looking back on 2022, the first quarter rose first and then fell, the average price was in the range of 2000-2500 yuan/ton, and the industry still had a reasonable profit. The market continued to decline in the second quarter, remained relatively stable in the third quarter, and began to fall again in the fourth quarter.
To sum up, weak demand and high inventory are the main characteristics of the spot market of float glass in 2022, which leads to the continuous decline of the market.
Overall, the glass market is beginning to warm up, but in the short term, it is still facing the problem that the actual demand is not as good as expected, so can trend of the market warming continue throughout the year?
In this regard, Wei Yu, a senior researcher at the Big Data Research Institute of China Cement Network, believes that the glass demand brought about by the completion of the real estate project in 2023 will probably pick up, but the degree is not particularly high. In addition, an important task of the glass industry this year is to inventory, overall, demand warming, cold repair strengthening is powerful for inventory.
So specifically, what is the trend of glass in 2023 and whether the price can recover? Can industry profits reverse negative to positive?
In addition, the photovoltaic glass industry also ushered in an extraordinary year in 2022. In 2022, due to the external economic environment and the expansion of its own production capacity, the decline in the market led to a decline in industry profits, but the enthusiasm for photovoltaic glass production is still very high. In 2023, the momentum remains unchanged. According to the statistics of Digital Building Materials and Big Data Research Institute, up to now, there are 157 photovoltaic projects under construction and proposed in China, with a total capacity of 177600 tons per day, which is more than twice the capacity that has been put into operation. After
these projects have been put into operation, the supply has increased greatly. Does the photovoltaic glass market really have such a large demand to undertake? Will the industry face the risk of overcapacity? Will the price of photovoltaic glass go down as a result?
This Wednesday, Wei Yu will summarize the glass market in 2022 and discuss the trend of the glass market in 2023 from the aspects of demand, supply, profit and cost in the live broadcast of the "Sharing Hui Building Materials Weekly Talk" cement network APP video line. Stay tuned.
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