最多涨100!多地水泥价格上涨!但实际需求……

2023-02-12 13:11:31

各地市场启动较为缓慢,预计下周水泥价格将偏稳运行。

元宵节过后,北方地区市场启动缓慢,东北等地仍在错峰生产阶段,目前价格暂稳;南方地区市场需求开始缓慢恢复,但销量仍不理想。全国整体价格行情偏稳,其中湖北跌幅明显。

本周全国熟料价格指数(CLKPI)报收141.41点,环比上周上涨0.53%。本周熟料价格小幅上涨。

图1:水泥价格指数走势(点)

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

图2:熟料价格指数走势(点)

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

具体而言:

东北地区

春节长假之后,市场尚未启动。目前大多数企业仍在错峰生产阶段,加之受低温天气影响,工地复工相对缓慢,水泥价格暂稳。

西北地区

市场需求刚刚启动。目前陕西关中仍在错峰停窑期间,且环保管控严峻,原材料价格高位运行,加之前期价格降至相对低位,

8日起西安、咸阳、铜川、渭南等关中地区通知上调水泥价格10-50元/吨不等,目前市场需求刚刚启动,实际执行待观察;

由于新疆2022年-2023年冬季错峰力度加大,加之去年受电石渣水泥冲击及疫情等因素影响,

为增强市场信心,近日乌鲁木齐、塔城等地通知上调水泥价格20-50元/吨,部分袋装上调近100元/吨,目前大多数工地、搅拌站尚未开工,实际执行待观察;

受低温及雨雪天气影响,甘肃、宁夏、青海等地工地、搅拌站开工受限,市场恢复进度延缓,水泥价格暂稳。

华北地区

市场启动缓慢。元宵后京津冀地区一些工地、搅拌站等陆续开工,但整体恢复有限,企业日出货仅2成左右。

与此同时,受原料价格下跌影响,加之外围唐山低价水泥冲击,周内北京、天津及河北冀南地区一些企业对局部市场成交价下滑20-40元/吨不等;

山西、内蒙古气温仍在零下,受间接性雨雪天气影响,市场启动较缓慢,需求销量不高,价格暂稳。

华东地区

元宵后市场需求缓慢回升,加之熟料价格上调带动,企业调价意愿强烈。

元宵节后江苏一些工地逐步恢复施工,需求缓慢回升,加之熟料价格上调,

4-8日盐城、淮安、扬州、泰州、连云港、宿迁等地陆续通知上调水泥价格20元/吨左右,周边南京、镇江及苏南等地近日也有上调可能,近日雨水天气居多,企业出货量仍在2-4成,本轮上调落实情况尚待观望;

浙江近期阴雨天气居多,需求恢复缓慢,企业出货量仅正常水平2-3成,本周报价稳中趋弱,随着熟料价回涨及周边涨价带动,中下旬不排除推涨可能;

安徽近期需求有所回升,加之沿江熟料价格上调30元/吨,10日起芜湖、铜陵、池州等地试探性推动上调各品种水泥价格10元/吨,目前需求尚未完全恢复,落实待跟踪;

2月以来受持续雨水天气影响,福建复工情况较往年有所下滑,企业出货量低迷,目前多数熟料线仍在错峰停窑阶段,市场产销双弱,元宵节后各企业水泥报价较节前无明显波动;

元宵后山东市场需求虽有回升,但企业出货量在2-3成。尽管一些主要厂家曾有意尝试推涨水泥价格,但由于出货欠佳,且多数企业仍在观望,涨价信心不足,周内报价暂稳,局部市场存在小幅暗降迹象。

中南地区

市场需求开始缓慢恢复。正月十五过后,湖南湖北市场需求较前期缓慢恢复,但水泥销量仍不理想,月初湖南常德通知上调水泥价格20元/吨后,落实欠佳;

湖北鄂中部分企业小幅下调水泥价格10-20元/吨,其余企业维持年前报价,目前湖北大部分企业仍在停窑,部分区域有意近期上调水泥价格,具体待跟进;

广东元宵节后工人陆续返岗,部分工地开工,但出货量仍较少,大部分企业库存在6成左右,加之成本仍在高位,9日一些主导企业通知对珠三角及粤西部分市场上调水泥价格10-20元/吨,熟料价格同步上调10元/吨,执行情况待观察;

广西近期阴雨天气较多,需求恢复较缓,企业出货近2-3成,由于生产成本处高位,且错峰停窑下企业库存压力不大,1月底主导企业上调袋装价格20元/吨后,2月10日起部分企业通知上调散装水泥价格20元/吨,其余同业近日跟进的预期较大;

元宵节后河南多数工地、搅拌站开工率仍不高,出货量低迷,目前市场产销双弱,基本处于半停滞状态,由于节前各地水泥已普遍跌至相对低位,短期价格或不会有明显变动。

西南地区

元宵节后各地市场开始启动,但需求恢复有限,销量低迷。川渝近期雨水天气较多,需求销量低迷,月初成都地区袋装水泥下调40元/吨后,近日周边乐山、雅安、眉山等地区主导企业陆续跟进下调水泥价格20-40元/吨,其中雅安降幅在20元/吨;

重庆部分工地陆续恢复施工,需求略有上升,主城市场水泥价格本周暂稳;

贵州元宵节后市场需求缓慢恢复,企业出货量与节前变化不大,7日黔西南州通知上调水泥价格30元/吨,目前企业库存高位运行,销售压力较大,落实情况待观察。

此外,安顺部分企业成交价小幅走低10-20元/吨;云南一季度错峰停窑60天,前期德宏州水泥价格下跌40-50元/吨,企业经营压力较大,周内部分企业通知复价上调水泥价格30-40元/吨,目前水泥销量较差,执行情况待跟踪。

后市预测:各地市场启动较为缓慢,预计下周水泥价格将偏稳运行。

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