Photovoltaic is a golden nest. People
outside, rich or not, photovoltaic money, desperately want to squeeze in. However, the people inside have already begun to build walls, from specialized competition in products, technology and scale to the construction of "integrated" walls. On the evening
of June 6, Tongwei shares and Longji Green Energy issued a 10 billion-level expansion announcement at the same time.
Tongwei plans to invest 10.5 billion yuan to expand 25 GW solar cell and 20 GW photovoltaic module projects in Chengdu.
Longji Green Energy plans to invest more than 12.5 billion yuan in 20GW monocrystalline silicon rods, 24GW monocrystalline batteries and supporting projects . The day
before, Jingao Technologies announced a further expansion of production of 6 billion yuan . Add 30GW crystal pulling, 10GW silicon wafer and 10GW module projects .
Trina Solar also announced a 10.7 billion expansion plan on May 29.
In addition, Jingke Energy announced on May 25 that it would invest 56 billion yuan to build a super luxury project with an annual output of 56GW vertical integration base . In
less than half a month, five hundred billion-grade leading enterprises, as if they had discussed, competed to expand production in a big way, pushing the industry's expansion tide to a new peak again. According to the incomplete statistics of digital new energy DNE, the expansion of
photovoltaic integration and collective craziness
have been carried out since this year. The contracted amount of large photovoltaic enterprises such as Jingao Technology, Tongwei Stock, Longji Green Energy and Aixu Stock has reached more than 200 billion yuan . Among, JinkoSolar with 746.
Affected by this, large and medium-sized enterprises in the photovoltaic industry have followed the layout integration. In May alone, 31 projects were signed in the main links of the photovoltaic industry , almost every day. Article Details Click "
Competing for Layout Integration?
This sentence can just reveal the reasons for the integration of photovoltaic enterprises: raw material supply, cost reduction and efficiency enhancement, and market occupation.
From the perspective of raw material supply, self-supply of raw materials can not only effectively control terminal costs, but also help the company to enhance and guarantee the supply elasticity for different markets in the increasingly competitive market, so as to prevent being "stuck" by the upstream.
In terms of cost reduction, to what extent can integration be achieved? Luo Liguo, chairman of Hesheng Silicon Industry, has previously said, "Even if (polysilicon) sells 780000, we can still make money.". I have a line of 100,000 tons, while others have a line of 10,000 tons. My operating cost is 10,000 to 20,000 yuan/ton cheaper than it. I can still support it when it closes. This is the calculation.If the
upstream cost control is in hand, the downstream market can be further seized. Since last year, the quotation of photovoltaic downstream batteries and components has continued to decline, and the quotation of first-and second-tier manufacturers has become increasingly fierce. According to Digital New Energy DNE, the mainstream transaction price of P-type double-sided 182mm modules has dropped to 1.49-1 this week, and the price of double-sided 210mm modules has dropped to 1.54-1. In January
this year, Zhuang Yinghong, global marketing director of Dongfang Risheng Components Division, responded to Zhu Yao, a new analyst of CITIC Construction and Investment Corporation, in the circle of friends, "Is the cost of your company 's components only 1.2-1.3? " "According to the silicon wafer quotation of 5.1 yuan/piece, the battery non-silicon cost of 0.14 yuan/watt, plus the component non-silicon cost of 0."
Although Dongfang Risheng later clarified urgently, we can still see a corner from it, only to complete the "battery + component integration" still has such power. To what extent will the industry leaders who are about to complete the integration of " silicon materials + silicon wafers + batteries + components" go? In August
last year, Tongwei Co., Ltd., which entered the component industry for the first time, was 2 lower than Longji Green Energy, the leader of the component industry. Then, with the constantly low component quotation, it handed in the report card of 8GW components at the end of the year, and ranked among the first-line component enterprises in just a few months.
At this time, Tongwei's integrated layout has just begun.
In the future, will the small and medium-sized photovoltaic enterprises with raw materials follow the market still have a competitive power in the face of the integration leader? Can we only watch the market share being divided up by several leading companies? But on the other hand, it is no longer a few enterprises that "rush" on the road of expanding production, but the collective madness.
According to the recent incomplete statistics of digital new energy DNE, in May alone, 31 new projects were signed in the photovoltaic industry chain! 5GW cell production capacity, 154.
According to digital new energy DNE tracking, most of the projects will be put into production in 2023 and the first half of 2024.
On the one hand, the collective "rush" of production capacity, on the other hand, the price decline of photovoltaic industry chain is also continuing .
Polysilicon prices have continued to fall for more than three months. As of May 31, silicon wafer prices have fallen 12 times in a row. The decline has not yet narrowed, and there is no sign of stopping the decline. There is news in the market that the lowest price of silicon materials has been hovering around 70 yuan/kg this week. The price of
silicon wafers is not much better, the average quotation of the industry continues to expand, and leading enterprises are taking the lead in reducing prices.
On May 29, the official website of Longji Green Energy released the quotation of P-type silicon wafers, which fell by more than 30% compared with the quotation a month ago; The quotation of P-type and N-type silicon wafers in TCL Central on June 1 also dropped by 24% compared with the beginning of May! The continuous centralized release of production capacity is the main reason for the continued decline in prices in the first half of the year. Overcapacity in
the photovoltaic industry can no longer be called "hidden worries", but "open troubles". During
the SNEC exhibition, Li Zhenguo, founder of Longji Green Energy, said that in the past two years, the capacity scale of the photovoltaic industry has expanded dramatically, and overcapacity and potential price war have become a concern in the industry. In the next two or three years, more than half of the enterprises will be eliminated. "
When everyone is running, people who are standing still become" backward elements ". The "involution" expansion of photovoltaic industry has been unable to stop, and leading enterprises can not stay out of the way and be carried forward by the torrent.
However, some people in the industry believe that even if the photovoltaic industry enters a state of overcapacity, it is also a "phased" surplus.
Recently, in response to the risk of overcapacity in the industry on the investor platform, Jingao Technologies said that from the development process of the photovoltaic industry over the past 20 years, technology and product iteration are fast, and products with high cost performance are usually in a state of insufficient capacity.
Li Zhenguo said that from the development of the past 10 years, overcapacity is always phased, and with the continuous progress of industry technology, competition is becoming more and more fierce, which also accelerates the elimination of backward production capacity.
When the tide recedes, we will know who is not wearing underpants.
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