According to China Cement Network Market Center, the market started slowly, some areas were in the process of off-peak shutdown, clinker inventory pressure was reduced, coupled with high costs, in order to improve profits, cement enterprises in Shaanxi, Anhui, Guangdong, Guangxi, Jiangsu and other places tried to push up cement prices .
The National Cement Price Index (CEMPI) showed that as of February 9, the index closed at 136.31 points, after more than two months of decline, it finally rebounded.
Industry insiders said that with the resumption of production around the country, market demand will be gradually released, and cement prices are expected to be stable in the near future.
According to the market feedback, the Guanzhong area of Shaanxi Province is still in the period of peak staggering and kiln shutdown, and the environmental protection control is severe, and the price of raw materials is running at a high level. In addition, the price of cement has dropped to a relatively low level in the early stage, and local enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices.
In order to increase profits, some major enterprises in Guanzhong areas, such as Xi'an, Xianyang, Tongchuan and Weinan, notified an increase in cement prices by 10-50 yuan/ton on the 8th. At present, the market demand has just started, and the actual implementation of this push remains to be observed.
Anhui
according to market feedback, the recent market demand in Anhui has rebounded slightly compared with the previous period, coupled with the clinker price increase of 30 yuan/ton, enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices.
In order to improve profitability, some major manufacturers in Wuhu, Tongling, Chizhou and other places in Anhui Province tentatively pushed up the price of various types of cement by 10 yuan/ton on the 10th, while the rest of the market was temporarily stable. On the whole, the market demand has not yet fully recovered, and the implementation of the price increase is still under observation. According to market feedback
in Guangdong
, workers have returned to work after the Glutinous Rice Balls for Lantern Festival, and some construction sites have started, but the shipments of enterprises are still relatively small. At present, the inventory of most enterprises in Guangdong is about 60%, and the cost of cement production is still high, so enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices.
In order to increase profits, some leading enterprises in the province notified on the 9th that the price of cement in the Pearl River Delta and some markets in western Guangdong would be raised by 10-20 yuan/ton, and the price of clinker would be raised by 10 yuan/ton simultaneously. The recent rainy weather is more, and the actual implementation remains to be observed. According to market feedback
in Guangxi
, the cost of cement production is still high, and the time of kiln shutdown is prolonged, so the inventory pressure of enterprises in Guangxi is not high. Around February 10, the price of bulk cement in Nanning, Yulin, Beihai and other areas of Guangxi will be raised by 20 yuan/ton. Earlier, on January 29-30, many places in Guangxi had raised the price of bagged cement by 20 yuan/ton.
Local cement enterprises said that the price increase of bulk cement was a follow-up adjustment after the last price increase of bagged cement. According to the feedback from the market
in Jiangsu
, after the Lantern Festival, some construction sites in Jiangsu gradually resumed construction, demand slowly rebounded, coupled with the increase in clinker prices, the production costs of enterprises increased.
In order to increase profits, some manufacturers in Yancheng, Huaian, Yangzhou, Taizhou and other places in Jiangsu notified an increase in cement prices by 20 yuan/ton on the 4th, and major manufacturers in Lianyungang, Suqian and other places followed up with an increase in cement prices by about 20 yuan/ton on the 7th and 8th. At present, the market is still in the recovery stage, and the actual implementation of this round of price increases remains to be observed. According to market feedback
in Hunan
, most clinker lines in Changde area of Hunan are still shut down, and the inventory pressure of enterprises is not great. In addition, the price of cement has dropped to a low level before the festival, and some enterprises even suffer losses.
In order to improve profitability, some leading enterprises in Changde area notified an increase of 20 yuan/ton in cement price from 2 to 3 days, while the rest of the industry is still on the sidelines. At present, the market demand has not yet recovered, and the implementation remains to be observed. According to market feedback, in the slow recovery of market demand after the Glutinous Rice Balls for Lantern Festival festival in
Guizhou
, the shipment volume of enterprises has not changed much compared with that before the festival. In order to increase profits, leading enterprises in Qianxinan Prefecture of Guizhou Province notified an increase in cement prices by 30 yuan/ton on the 7th. At present, the enterprise inventory is running at a high level, the sales pressure is high, and the implementation of this round of price increases remains to be observed.
Tianfeng Securities Research Report predicts that, in view of the fact that cement prices have basically fallen to the bottom before the festival, the possibility of further sharp decline is small, and the market is in the start-up stage. It is expected that in the first ten days of February, cement prices will be mainly in the trend of shock adjustment, and with the continuous recovery of market demand, prices will stabilize and rebound.
Throughout the year, Tapai Group said that in 2023, Guangdong, Guangxi and Fujian will adhere to the principle of green, low-carbon and high-quality development of the cement industry, and continue to carry out strong peak-staggering production actions; at the same time, the coal price is expected to decline steadily, which will also have a positive impact on the cost, and the industry's profitability is expected to recover.
Shangfeng Cement is optimistic about the recovery of the cement industry in 2023. On the demand side, the real estate industry will enter the recovery channel, while key infrastructure projects will drive demand. On the supply side, the strict implementation of the policies of capacity reduction replacement and off-peak production will control the supply side to a certain extent. In addition, a series of policies have been introduced to impose more restrictions on energy consumption and carbon emissions, which will have an impact on cement supply.
Recently, Shao Jun, founder and chairman of China Cement Network, visited Conch Group and exchanged with Yang Jun, secretary and chairman of the Party Committee of Conch Group. Both sides agreed that in 2022, the cement market was depressed and the profitability of enterprises was not good. In 2023, with the decline of raw material prices such as coal, the cost of cement enterprises will be reduced. It is expected that the profit of the cement industry in 2023 will be better than last year.
At the same time, there is another major event in the cement industry recently.
In 2022, the cement industry will face many severe challenges: the output will hit a new low in the past 11 years, the market will continue to run at a low level, the average price of coal will reach a historical high, and the profit of the cement industry will shrink sharply.
Now, the epidemic is about to become a thing of the past, the economy is restarting, major projects are advancing rapidly, and good signals for real estate are coming frequently. In this context, it is worth paying attention to where the demand for cement will go in 2023. At the same time, how to rebuild confidence in the industry in the new year to cope with market changes needs to be discussed in depth.
To this end, China Cement Network will hold the " 2023 China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony " in Hangzhou on March 15-16, when the national cement and related industry colleagues will gather together to discuss the future trend of the cement market, please pay attention.
浙公网安备33010802003254号