1. Market analysis: Most provinces fell
. In May, the national glass price rose first and then fell. At the end of the month, the national glass price index closed at 141.21 points, down 4.44% from the previous month, and the price index rose 11. At the end of the month, the national average price of float glass sheets was 2141.4 yuan/ton. Month-on-month decline of about 99.
Figure 1: Trend of national glass price index in May 2023 Figure 2: K-line chart
of glass price index in the past year
Figure 3: Float Glass Prices in 15 Provinces and Cities in China (%)
Figure 4: National real estate development indicators (%)
Data source: Digital Building Materials Network
From January to April, the growth rate of completed area in all major regions of the country increased year-on-year, with the largest increase in the northeast and southwest. Year-on-year growth of 92.03% and 26% respectively.
Figure 5: Completed area of real estate in six regions of the country Year-on-year growth (%)
Data source: Digital Building Materials Network
In April, the production and sales of automobiles were significantly restored, and from January to April, the production and sales of automobiles decreased to increased. Year-on-year growth of 8.6% and 7 respectively.
Figure 6: Year-on-year decline
in automobile production and sales Data source: Digital Building Materials Network
The demand for float glass declined in May. It is estimated that the apparent demand for float glass from January to May was 10.5721 million tons. Year-on-year decrease 24.
Figure 7: Monthly apparent demand
for float glass in China
Figure 8: Number of production lines and operating rate of float glass in China (%)
Data source: Digital Building Materials Network
Table 1: Changes in
production capacity of float glass in May 2023 Data source: Digital Building Materials Network
May Glass enterprises across the country have entered the inventory accumulation stage again, with a month-on-month increase of 14% at the end of the month. From a regional perspective, the fastest inventory accumulation rate is in Central China and North China, with a month-on-month increase of 103.31% and 30.79% respectively at the end of the month. Secondly, the inventory of enterprises in East China, Northeast China and South China has also declined to a certain extent, with a month-on-month decline of 5-15%; Stocks in the southwest and northwest regions are still declining. Month-on-month decrease by 6.73% and 6.
Figure 9: Inventory of float glass enterprises in China (10,000 heavy boxes)
Figure 10: Price trend of main raw materials and fuels for float glass in May (unit: yuan/ton)
Data source: Digital Building Materials Network
According to the cost calculation model of Cement Big Data Research Institute, At the end of the month, the cost of float glass production line (natural gas) was RMB1,406.40/ton, representing a decrease of 15.95% on a month-on-month basis, and the cost of float glass production line (petroleum coke) was RMB1,210.32/ton, representing an increase of 11% on a month-on-month basis. During the month, the cost of soda ash decreased significantly, although the price of petroleum coke rose slightly, the cost of production lines decreased.
Figure 11: Float Glass Production Line Cost Trend Chart
Data Source: Digital Building Materials Network
V. Futures Market Observation:
As of May 31, The closing price of the national glass futures contract FG2309 was RMB1,409.00/ton, representing a month-on-month decrease of RMB384/ton (i.e. 21. With the weakening of demand and the end of the destocking market, the forward expectation of glass was weak, and the price of glass futures fell sharply in May.
Figure 12: Trend of
closing prices of active glass futures contracts < IMG SRC = "On the supply side of the https://img7.ccement.com/richtext/img/wxt505eufh1686044310628., With the increase of production lines and supply, glass enterprises have entered the accumulation stage again. In May, two production lines were ignited, and three production lines resumed production without cold repair. In May, the production capacity of float glass was in a state of net increase, and the operating rate reached the highest level since this year. As the production capacity of the ignition production line climbs in May, the output and supply will increase in June. It is expected that the float glass market will continue to fall in June, and the off-season price is expected to stabilize around 1800 yuan/ton.
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