On June 2, the national glass price index closed at 140.53 points, down 4.46% annually, and the price index rose 11.11% year-on-year. The average price of float glass sheets in China was 2131.09 yuan/ton, down 99.54 yuan/ton from the previous month.
Figure 1: Recent Trend
of National Glass Price Index Data Source: Digital Building Materials Network
I. Regional Market Analysis: The number of falling provinces increased
. Glass prices in all provinces continued to fall during the week, and the number of falling provinces increased. Judging from the price of float glass in 15 sample provinces and cities, the overall decline is expanding. Hubei, Fujian, Tianjin, Sichuan and other six provinces fell more than 5% in the week, the largest decline in Hubei was 6.62%; followed by Hunan, Jiangsu, Guangdong and other provinces fell in the middle, between 1 and 5%; Zhejiang and Liaoning fell slightly by 0.85% and 0.52%. See Figure 2 for details.
Figure 2: Changes in Float Glass Prices in 15 Provinces and Cities in China (%)
Data Source: Digital Building Materials Network
II. Industry Supply Analysis: New Production Lines Ignited, Inventory Growth Narrowed
On June 2, there were 306 float glass production lines in China. One more than previous week. During the week, the 1300 t/d production line of Inner Mongolia Yujing Technology Co., Ltd. was ignited, the production capacity increased, and the operating rate of float glass enterprises rose to a new high in the year.
Figure 3: Number of production lines and operating rate of float glass in China (%)
Data source: Digital Building Materials Network
Recently, the production and sales of float glass market continued to weaken. During the week, the inventory of float glass production enterprises in China increased by 6.45% compared with the previous week, and the growth rate slowed down compared with the previous week. Inventory in central China has accumulated rapidly, with a month-on-month increase of 28.28%, while inventory in other regions has also increased to a certain extent, with a month-on-month increase of 3-10%.
Figure 4: Inventory of national float glass enterprises (10,000 heavy boxes)
Data source: Digital Building Materials Network
III. Analysis of cost changes: Raw material prices continued to fall
. Glass raw material and fuel prices continued to decline during the week. Among them, the average price of natural gas market fell by 1.18%, the petroleum coke market fell again, and the market price fell by 7.79%. Soda ash market continued to weaken, prices fell 2.76%, the decline slowed down slightly. According to the cost calculation model of Cement Big Data Research Institute, on June 2, the cost of float glass production line (natural gas) was 1,394.45 yuan/ton, down 1.32% from the previous month, and the cost of float glass production line (petroleum coke) was 1,210.32 yuan/ton, down 3.60% from the previous month. According to the average price of glass, the average profit of natural gas and petroleum coke production lines is 736.64 yuan/ton and 920.77 yuan/ton respectively.
Figure 5: Float Glass Production Line Cost Trend Chart
Data Source: Digital Building Materials Network
IV. Futures Market Observation: Rebound
On June 2, the closing price of the national glass futures FG2309 contract was 1,556.00 yuan/ton. The month-on-month increase was 81.00 yuan/ton (5.49%). Futures prices continued to rebound after the pessimistic trend.
Figure 6: Glass futures active contract closing price trend
Data source: Digital Building Materials Network
V. This week's market forecast: Continue to fall
. Recent glass production and sales are flat. On the one hand, it is the seasonal off-season. On the other hand, it is the end of the stage of storing goods in the middle and lower reaches of the early stage. Supply-side pressure gradually highlighted, manufacturers inventory continued to rise, with the resumption of production line capacity climbing, glass market in the downward channel. The market is expected to continue to fall this week.
浙公网安备33010802003254号