安徽水泥市场“四面楚歌” 长江流域价格战已经打响?

2023-06-05 09:14:56

安徽水泥市场可谓是“四面楚歌”。

进入二季度以来,安徽地区水泥价格已经过多轮下调。近日,中国水泥网调研安徽市场了解到,安徽沿江地区的水泥出厂价目前普遍在每吨二百五六十元左右。

“安徽水泥市场现在是腹背受敌!”安徽沿江一水泥企业感慨道。

上述沿江水泥企业一负责人表示,该企业生产的水泥仅有10%左右会用于安徽本地市场,大部分水泥都流向了下游的上海、浙江等地。因此,安徽沿江的水泥价格受到长江下游水泥企业的极大牵制。

“下游的部分企业把水泥价格定到每吨二百五十元左右,我们不得不降价。”该沿江水泥企业负责人表示,江浙一带的水泥企业距目标市场近,在运输成本上占据优势;而上游湖北等地的水泥企业又具有生产成本低的优势,安徽水泥企业“腹背受敌”,夹在中间被迫降价。

除此之外,近日山东也有低价水泥打入皖北市场,本来处于高位的皖北水泥价格也受到了不小冲击。据中国水泥网行情数据中心消息,近期安徽北部地区的水泥价格普遍产生了20-35元/吨的下浮。

价格上的激烈竞争反映出的是需求的羸弱。

安徽一季度水泥需求比较旺盛,主要是由于疫情管控放松再加上年初复工产生的赶工期引发的,且当时大部分企业都在停窑检修,水泥需求一度“火热”;

然而三月下旬,各水泥企业结束停窑恢复生产,赶工项目基本完工且没有新项目动工,突然大量增加的产能和陡然转冷的需求激烈“摩擦”致使安徽水泥价格震荡下跌。

“房地产占到需求的50%,但是没有工程动工。今年上半年的销量还比不过去年,创下了历史新低,下半年恐怕希望渺茫。”安徽芜湖一水泥企业负责人说道。

由于需求过差,当前安徽许多企业不堪高库存的压力而进行自主停窑调整。

马鞍山一水泥企业负责人认为,造成当前产需矛盾激烈的一个重要原因便是产能置换政策。许多早应该被淘汰掉的多余、落后产能,置换后新建的生产线反而实际产能大大增加,这无疑是加重了早已产能过剩的水泥行业的负担。

成本方面,近期煤炭价格下滑对于水泥企业来说似乎是个好消息,但事实并非如此。更低的煤炭价格并没有为水泥企业带来更多的利润,反而为水泥造就了更多的降价空间。

煤炭价格尚在每吨一千元左右时,安徽大多数企业还能将水泥价格维持在每吨三百元以上。据中国水泥网了解,当前安徽某些企业使用的煤炭价格每吨已不到八百元,其水泥价格也跌破了每吨三百元这层“窗户纸”。

上述芜湖水泥企业负责人认为,目前看来,煤炭价格还有下降的可能,水泥价格仍然有下降空间。

疫情的负面影响已经不复存在,销量却创下新低;需求过差导致被迫停窑,产量也普遍下滑;水泥价格过低、利润空间小,企业效益大打折扣……安徽水泥市场可谓是“四面楚歌”。

六月是各企业进行年中总结的时间。今年上半年,安徽大部分水泥企业处于“要销量没销量、要产量没产量、要利润没利润”的尴尬境地,下半年各企业的经营方略应该会做出重大调整。惨淡的行情下,争市场份额可能会成为不同企业的相同选择。

上述安徽沿江水泥企业负责人表示,现在长江沿江地区的价格战可以说是已经打响,下半年恐怕会变本加厉。

在水泥行业的竞争中,降低成本的重要性不言而喻。水泥企业通常在能耗等方面节约成本,然而经过多年的发展,水泥熟料生产线的节能技术已经十分成熟,量变再难引起质变,而“大势所趋”的替代燃料也存在着没有形成完整供应链的致命缺陷。

“大企业还好,小企业在节能技改等方面投入偏少。现在行情不好,小企业收益差,就更不愿进行投入,就陷入了越不投入、越不挣钱的恶性循环。”上述芜湖水泥企业负责人表示,小企业在惨烈的价格战中很难生存下去。

恶性竞争不会产生赢家。安徽多家水泥企业呼吁,加强行业自律是重中之重。各企业要认清行业利益大于企业利益、企业利益蕴含在行业利益之中的道理,切忌“鼠目寸光”。

一安徽水泥行业业内人士认为,要想改善水泥行业的供需问题,就要认识到需求的羸弱已经不能改变,那么就应当从控制供给中下功夫。错峰生产绝对不能厚此薄彼,要严格做到“一刀切”,并且错峰生产不能够各地区各省份独立进行,相关的区域市场要有协同性。

“最有效的方式就是将水泥行业纳入碳交易体系。”该业内人士表示,通过产能大小核定碳排放指标,超出指标后企业必须停产或者从其他企业购买相应指标。

合理制订碳排放指标分配方案,碳排放的计量、核算及碳交易规则,形成科学规范兼顾公平和效率的的碳管理、碳交易政策和机制能够有效改善水泥行业产能过剩问题,更能激励水泥企业开展节能降碳改造,推动行业高质量发展。

中国水泥网将于2023年7月6-7日,在重庆举行“2023中国水泥节能与新能源发展大会”, 从节能改造,光伏、储能等技术应用,绿电、替代燃料替代传统能源转型等方面出发,共同探讨水泥行业节能降耗新途径。  

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