Recently, with the disclosure of annual report performance forecasts of major listed companies, the photovoltaic industry has once again become the focus of public attention. The price of silicon materials has been rising continuously for more than a year, which makes the performance of listed companies in the upstream, middle and downstream of the photovoltaic industry chain generally exceed expectations, especially the upstream silicon enterprises make a lot of money.
As of February 6, Tongwei shares ranked 8th and Daqo Energy ranked 12th in the 2022 A-share annual report performance forecast earnings ranking. Only two photovoltaic companies, Tongwei and Daqo Energy, have increased their net profits by more than 46 billion yuan, and 77% of the more than 70 listed companies with photovoltaic as their main industry have achieved growth in their forecast performance.
Under the background of global carbon neutrality, the situation of photovoltaic industry is very good. Enterprises in the photovoltaic industry chain have announced plans to expand production, while more than 75 enterprises in real estate, clothing, garden construction, animal husbandry, toys, games, automobile manufacturing and other industries have piled up cross-border photovoltaic, setting off a wave of "chasing light" boom. According to statistics from the International Energy Network/Photovoltaic Headlines, 5.5245 million tons of polysilicon projects and 543 GW of silicon wafer projects are planned or under construction in 2022.
While the photovoltaic industry is booming, capacity expansion, cross-border enterprises, technological choices, industrial integration, power grid security.. A series of problems have become the biggest challenge facing the photovoltaic industry!
In this context, how can photovoltaic enterprises shoulder the responsibility of building a new power system with new energy as the main body? With the increasing market risk and intensified competition, how can photovoltaic enterprises carry out technological innovation and achieve steady and rapid development? Behind the
performance growth-capacity expansion and cross-border competition
In 2022, China's photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 87.41 GW, an increase of 60.3% over the previous year, reaching a new record high. Under such circumstances, "performance pre-increase" has become the mainstream of the announcement of listed companies.
Photovoltaic head enterprises have achieved almost full marks. Among them, silicon material enterprises are undoubtedly the biggest winners, and the total net profit of Tongwei shares and Daquan Energy, the two leading silicon material enterprises, is expected to increase by 46.4 billion yuan. In the silicon wafer sector, Longji Green Energy, TCL Central and other leading companies performed quite well. In the battery sector, the performance of Aixu shares is expected to hit a new high since its listing.
Component links, Trina Solar, Jingao Technology, Jingke Energy and other companies are expected to grow by more than 100% year-on-year. In addition, inverters, laminating and other auxiliary materials enterprises have also achieved substantial growth in performance. Sunshine Power is expected to have a net profit of 3.2 billion yuan to 3.8 billion yuan; Deye and Jinlang Technology are expected to have a net profit of more than 1 billion yuan.
However, the "earnings" of these listed companies in each quarter of 2022 will show that under the huge profits, the price of upstream silicon materials is actually pulled back. This is reflected in the fourth quarter performance growth of related enterprises. The important reason for the price correction of
photovoltaic upstream silicon materials is attributed to the release of production capacity. In fact, from the beginning of March last year, the domestic silicon material sector has added a number of 10 billion-level investment plans, and companies such as Zhonglai and TBEA have joined the industry of investment and production expansion.
According to incomplete statistics, there are 41 polysilicon projects planned or under construction in 2022, with a total scale of 5.5245 million tons. As many as 32 silicon wafer projects are planned or under construction in 2022, with a total scale of 543GW, involving an investment amount of 419.786 billion yuan. Among them, there are many listed companies such as glass fiber giant China Jushi, Internet company 35 interconnection, real estate company Warner Group, construction company Hongrun Construction, automobile company BYD, clothing company Bangjie Stock, catering enterprise China Keyun Net, breeding enterprise Huangshi Group, textile industry Jiangsu Sunshine and so on. It has entered the fields of photovoltaic power plant investment, silicon materials, silicon wafers, cells, components, system integration, photovoltaic manufacturing equipment and other industrial chains.
For such cross-border enterprises, if there is no integrated layout of the photovoltaic industry chain to achieve self-internal circulation, they will face great risks if they rashly engage in the processing of silicon materials and wafers. Once the problem of overcapacity occurs in the photovoltaic market, in order to consume the expected capacity, it will bring low-price competition, which will lead to further shuffling of the industrial chain, and many enterprises will fall down.
As far as the current capacity expansion of domestic silicon material factories and silicon wafer factories is concerned, overcapacity is a matter of time. The International Energy Network predicts that the prices of silicon materials and silicon wafers will return to normal space this year, the competition in the silicon materials and silicon wafers industry will become more intense next year, the price game between the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain will become more intense, the overcapacity will lead to price war, and the silicon materials may return to the "low-profit era". How to
choose TOPCon, HJT, HPBC and perovskite?
Compared with capacity competition, the technical route selection and reserve of photovoltaic industry is the core competitiveness of enterprises. With the policy guidance and the continuous efforts of many photovoltaic enterprises such as Longji and Tianhe, the photoelectric conversion efficiency has achieved a breakthrough of 26.81%.
At present, the photovoltaic technology route is mainly based on PERC as the mainstream, TOPCon, heterojunction (HJT), MWT, HPBC have also become the direction of exploration by various enterprises. Different thicknesses of cells, different technologies of silver paste consumption, contact methods and so on are different, which will have an impact on the comprehensive power generation efficiency and product yield of cells, whether mass production can be achieved, and then achieve low cost is the key.
Tongwei, Longji, Tianhe, Jingke, Jingao and other photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises are mainly based on PERC mass production. Tianhe set a world record of 24.5% PERC conversion efficiency in July 2022, which has almost become the limit of PERC battery technology; The next generation of heterojunction technology is favored by many photovoltaic enterprises, from Jinneng to Longji and Dongfang Risheng, there are not a few photovoltaic leaders aiming at heterojunction technology, especially Longji, which has set a world record of 25.26% photoelectric conversion efficiency of heterojunction technology. Moreover, Longji also made a choice on the technical route of N-type TOPCON and P-type TOPCON, setting a world record of 25.02% for P-type TOPCON and 25.21% for N-type TOPCON. In addition, Longji also announced that the production efficiency of the standard version of HPBC battery has exceeded 25%, and the PRO version with hydrogen passivation technology can exceed 25.3%. Cell technologies represented
by TOPCon, heterojunction (HJT), HPBC and perovskite have received more and more attention. Who is the mainstream technology in the future?
Competition is about to become white-hot, photovoltaic + industry integration opens a new situation
, photovoltaic power generation is known as a way of clean energy utilization, but the development of photovoltaic industry so far, it is no longer as simple as a single energy source. Since the state proposed to build a new power system with new energy as the main body, photovoltaic has shouldered the important task of realizing energy transformation. The integrated development of wind, solar and hydrogen storage has been mentioned more and more, and the photovoltaic industry is no longer the "lone brave" to achieve China's "double carbon" goal, it has become a part of the integrated energy.
In addition to photovoltaic + energy storage, the coordinated development of water, scenery, fire storage, regional coupling heating and other varieties will also show a prairie fire trend. Moreover, new energy sources such as photovoltaic power generation will continue to penetrate into agriculture, forestry, ecological environment, rural revitalization and so on. How to open up the pattern of photovoltaic, integrate other energy categories and even integrate with other industries is a heavy test in front of people. Because the photovoltaic industry at this time is not a closed "circle", it needs to be integrated with different application scenarios, different energy types and different market spaces.
Under such an opportunity, how to get new gold digging opportunities has become a problem faced by every photovoltaic enterprise, even every energy enterprise. Where should the photovoltaic industry go in the future? What should lead the innovation of photovoltaic technology? What drives the performance of photovoltaic enterprises? Do you need a "reference answer"?
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