In 2022, the cement industry will face many severe challenges: the output will hit a new low in the past 11 years, the market will continue to run at a low level, the average price of coal will reach a historical high, and the profit of the cement industry will shrink sharply.
According to the recent 2022 performance forecasts issued by many cement listed companies, the net profit of most cement enterprises has decreased by more than 50% compared with 2021. For example, Conch Cement expects its 2022 net profit to decrease by 50% to 58%, Tianshan Cement expects its 2022 net profit to decrease by 68.08% to 58.50%, and China Resources Cement expects its 2022 net profit to decrease by 74% to 78%.. According
to the announcements issued by cement enterprises, the drag of real estate, repeated epidemics and rising coal prices have become the key factors for the decline of profits of most enterprises in 2022.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2022, the investment in real estate development in China was 13289.5 billion yuan, down 10.0% from the previous year. In 2022, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 904999 million square meters, down 7.2% from the previous year. Among them, the residential construction area was 639696 million square meters, down 7.3%. The new housing construction area was 1205.87 million square meters, down 39.4%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 881 million 350 thousand square meters, down 39.8%. Overall increase in coal price
in 2022 (RMB/ton) Price difference
between cement and thermal coal from January to December 2022 Data source: Cement Big Data
According to the analysis of Cement Big Data Research Institute of China Cement Network, the overall price of thermal coal fluctuated upward in 2022, with the average price reaching the highest level in history, which brought greater cost pressure to cement enterprises. The average spot price of thermal coal is expected to exceed 1300 yuan/ton in 2022, up 28% from the same period last year.
In the bleak market, in 2022, some cement enterprises carried out strategic contraction of the cement market layout: production line construction stranded, selling equity equipment, withdrawing from the cement market, etc., and the cement industry encountered the cold of survival.
Now, the epidemic is about to become a thing of the past, the economy is restarting, major projects are advancing rapidly, and good signals for real estate are coming frequently. In this context, it is worth paying attention to where the demand for cement will go in 2023. At the same time, how to rebuild confidence in the industry in the new year to cope with market changes needs to be discussed in depth.
To this end, China Cement Network is scheduled to hold the "2023 China Cement Industry Summit and Award Ceremony " in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, on March 15-16, 2023. Deeply discuss the macroeconomic trend and the development direction of cement industry, gather the power of spark, promote the high-quality development of the industry, and create a better future.
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