On September 26, InfoLink released an analysis of China's module exports. In August, China exported 17.3 GW of photovoltaic modules, showing a slight upward trend throughout the year. From the article, we can see that the European market is still the first export market of photovoltaic modules in China. China exported 17.3 GW of PV modules in August, up 19.2% from 14.5 GW in July and 20.6% from August 2022, according
to InfoLink customs data. From January to August 2023, cumulative exports reached 137.9 GW, up 26.8% from the same period last year. In
the European market
, China exported 8.2 GW photovoltaic modules to the European market in August, a slight increase of 15% compared with 7.1 GW in July and a decrease of about 5.4% compared with July 2022. From January to August, Europe imported 77.7 GW PV modules, an increase of 29.21% compared with the same period last year. Although the European data showed a significant decline in
July, the volume rebounded slightly in August, and the overall market heat in the third quarter was significantly lower than that in the previous two quarters. Although the local summer vacation has some impact on short-term demand, according to historical data, the second and third quarters are still the traditional peak season of the European market. This year, due to serious inventory problems, the demand in the third quarter has declined significantly compared with the past, and it is expected that the second half of 2023 will still be significantly weaker than first half.
With the end of the holidays and considering the construction cycle before winter, it is expected that the European market will be gradually repaired in September-October. From the component price observation, although the European component price has declined rapidly since this year, the price reduction began to narrow in September, and the order delivery situation also showed signs of a slight recovery.
Looking ahead to next year, considering the characteristics of the European market, it is expected that there will still be a certain degree of rolling inventory in the market, but whether the problem of high inventory level this year will continue to next year depends on the local consumption of inventory capacity. The actual installation speed still needs further growth to effectively digest the accumulated inventory this year.
Asia Pacific Market
In August, the Asia Pacific market imported 4.4 GW PV modules from China, an increase from July and an increase of about 109% over the same period last year. About 26.4 GW PV modules were imported from January to August.
The current increment mainly comes from India, where the demand for Chinese components in August was 959 MW, with a month-on-month increase of 228%, the highest since the BCD tariff came into effect in April last year, indicating that although the tariff on component imports is as high as 40%, with the rapid decline in global supply chain prices, even if the tariff rate on imported components is superimposed. Costs are still lower than indigenously manufactured components, and the approaching deadlines for legacy projects have led to a recovery in demand as many previously deferred projects have gradually started. Due to the implementation of the ALMM list and the grace period for some deferred projects in the first quarter of next year, India's demand is expected to increase between the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year.
In addition to India, Uzbekistan has also seen a significant increase in the past two months. In August, China's demand for components exceeded 600 MW, which is speculated to be the short-term impact of large-scale projects. The other major markets in Asia are Japan and Australia, which are more mature countries in photovoltaic development. Since the middle of
this year, component prices have declined significantly, driving demand growth around the country, but some countries such as Australia have not increased significantly due to economic factors; Demand in Japan has also stagnated compared with last year, and even shows signs of shrinking slightly, indicating that in countries where photovoltaic development has reached a certain maturity, due to the limitation of developable land and building area, even if the price of components has dropped significantly, the increase in demand is relatively limited.
The American market
imported 2.7 GW of Chinese PV modules from China in August, up 18% month-on-month and 10% year-on-year. From January to August, China imported 19.3 GW PV modules, an increase of 12.4% compared with the same period last year.
The month-on-month increase mainly came from Brazil, where demand for pulling goods increased by about 36% this month compared with the previous month, even though local distribution sales in Brazil decreased significantly and manufacturers cleared inventory at low prices. Although the distributed installation boom in the first quarter has passed, there is no sign of a rapid decline in the demand for modules. It is speculated that it is related to the decline in module prices and the significant reduction in the payback period of photovoltaic installation. In addition, the demand for ground projects has gradually increased this year, which has brought a certain degree of support to the overall photovoltaic demand in Brazil. At the same time, the recent news that Brazil may make changes to the tariff reduction and exemption of components may bring fluctuations to the market demand in the near future.
Middle East and Africa
In August, the Middle East market imported about 1.5 GW of PV modules from China, an increase of 53% month-on-month and 73% year-on-year. From January to August, China imported 8.5 GW PV modules, which surpassed the import volume of Chinese modules in the Middle East market last year. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Israel are the main sources of demand in
the Middle East, among which Saudi Arabia grew rapidly in the fourth quarter of last year, and has imported about 4 GW of Chinese components since this year, accounting for about 46% of the demand in the Middle East. The government's support for photovoltaic development is also strong, which is expected to support long-term stable demand development.
The African market imported about 479 MW PV modules in August, with a month-on-month decrease of 31% and a year-on-year increase of 85%. From January to August, it imported about 6 GW PV modules from China, 61% of which came from South Africa. South Africa imported about 200 MW of Chinese PV modules in August, down about 36% month-on-month, and the market cooled significantly relative to the second quarter. The growth of
South Africa this year is mainly due to the urgent demand for energy reform. The long-term intermittent power curtailment has led South Africa to offer high subsidies and tax credits, which will drive the rapid growth of local distributed demand, but it still needs to consider the continuity of the policy and the potential demand for local actual installed capacity.
Most overseas markets have released signals of weakening demand in the second half of the year, which also proves the inventory problem that the industry has been discussing for a long time. After entering the fourth quarter, although part of the market is in the off-season, we still need to pay attention to whether component factories will ship in large quantities in the fourth quarter in order to achieve the year-end shipment target. InfoLink speculates that after the rapid hoarding and high inventory accumulation at the beginning of the year, manufacturers will be more cautious in evaluating the shipment strategy in the fourth quarter, and will consciously control inventory management.
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