the Spring Festival, photovoltaic cell technology announced heavy progress. Perovskite efficiency has set a new record after three months, and now it has surpassed the mainstream production routes such as Longji, Tongwei and Jingke. The
capital market responded enthusiastically to this. As of February 2, A number of concept stocks rose strongly, driving the A-share photovoltaic sector up nearly 30%, bringing the new energy heat back to last year's Q3 level. The expectation
behind it is that the technology route switching node is close at hand, and the photovoltaic industry chain will face reshuffling. There is a threshold to understand the
technical details, so this paper hopes to clarify three simple questions: Why is the breakthrough of perovskite technology regarded as a "turning point"? What impact will it have on each link of the industrial chain? And how the relevant listed companies are responding to this change.
"Subversive" breakthrough
on January 20, after the third-party test and certification of China Metrology Institute, the steady-state output efficiency of small area perovskite and crystalline silicon tandem batteries independently developed by Beijing Yeneng Technology Co., Ltd. reached 32.44%, which is the latest record in China. Compared with the mainstream crystalline silicon route, the absolute value of efficiency has been improved by 5.63%.
Compared with the conversion efficiency of mainstream photovoltaic cell listed companies, as of November last year, the conversion efficiency of Jinko Energy 182 TOPCon cells was 26.4%; The conversion efficiency of the silicon heterojunction battery independently developed by Longji Green Energy has reached 26.81%, breaking the world record held by Japanese enterprises for five years, and has increasingly approached the theoretical limit of 29.4% of this route.
As we all know, the history of photovoltaic industry is the history of improving the efficiency of photovoltaic cells. As the first generation of solar energy technology, after decades of development, crystalline silicon cells are now the absolute mainstream accounting for up to 95%. Subdivision track is also fiercely competitive, Longji is relying on the single crystal, in 2015, a series of technological breakthroughs to achieve "curve overtaking", the market value once exceeded 500 billion.
However, after the efficiency reached 26.7% in 2017, the improvement space of crystalline silicon batteries is getting smaller and smaller, the breakthrough is becoming more and more difficult, and the cost and efficiency of each subdivision route are approaching infinitely. According to Li Zhenguo, president of Longji Green Energy, the current world record holder, "Even if the battery conversion efficiency is only increased by 0.01 percentage points, it is of great significance."
In 2022, after ten years of research and development, the subversive perovskite/crystalline silicon stack technology was officially "unveiled" in the market, and the laboratory efficiency and industrialization were reported frequently, accelerating the refreshing of the world record, and Chinese enterprises showed strong competitiveness.
In May, Tan Hairen's team of Nanjing University announced that the steady-state photoelectric conversion efficiency of all-perovskite tandem solar cells reached 28%; in July, Switzerland announced that the efficiency of perovskite/silicon tandem solar cells broke through the milestone of 30%. In December, German scientists claimed to have developed a perovskite/silicon tandem solar cell with certified efficiency exceeding 32.5%. A month later, Beijing Yaoneng announced that its efficiency exceeded 30%, representing Chinese enterprises to recover the global first-line level, which is only 0.06 percentage points away from the world record.
As for the expected realization time, industry insiders pointed out that perovskite has only recently started large-scale application testing, and it is expected to take 2 to 3 years, that is, around 2025, to launch mass-produced products, but there is still a certain distance from large-scale commercial use.
The next "Longji"?
In 2022, the photovoltaic industry chain is very hot in the capital market, and Chinese enterprises have made remarkable achievements in the field of perovskite, which naturally attracts a lot of hot money inflows.
Last December, Xiexin Technologies announced that Xiexin Optoelectronics, a perovskite subsidiary, had completed 500 million yuan B + round financing. This round of financing was jointly led by Temasek Investment, Sequoia China and IDG Capital, followed by Chuanliu Investment and other institutions, which once again raised the heat of the secondary market of perovskite batteries.
According to the incomplete statistics of Tiger Finance and Economics, in 2022 alone, there are head PE/VC concentrated bets such as Sequoia, Gaolu, Tencent, IDG, Temasek, Source Code, Yunqi, Kaihui, Jianyin International, etc; In addition, Three Gorges Capital, Jingneng, Enlightenment Star, Sugao Investment, Sunshine Power Supply, Zhongke Innovation, Jinfeng Science and Technology, Great Wall Automobile and other industrial capital are deeply involved.
However, the leading perovskite companies were founded around 2009, the volume is still small, most of them have not yet been listed, only last year began to accelerate financing, into the fast lane of development.
According to incomplete statistics, in addition to the above-mentioned Beijing Yaoneng and Xiexin, there are also enterprises such as Fiber Nano Optoelectronics, Polar Solar Energy, Renshuo Solar Energy, Zhongneng Optoelectronics, Zhijing Technology, Shanghai Liyuan New Energy and so on. In addition, Huaneng's Clean Energy Technology Research Institute and the State Energy Group have carried out in-depth research on perovskite.
It is worth noting that the expectation of "switching" perovskite batteries has a far-reaching impact on the photovoltaic industry chain, not only on battery companies.
The analysis points out that the cost of photovoltaic modules in photovoltaic power plants accounts for 40% of the cost of power plants, of which 20% is the core component (the component that converts light into electricity in the cell), that is, the cost of the cell. If the efficiency of batteries can be continuously improved and the cost of batteries can be continuously reduced, the cost of photovoltaic power plants will also have the potential to be greatly reduced.
Longji Green Energy Li Zhenguo introduced that the same area, absorbing the same light, can emit more electricity, of course, the better. Taking the battery as an example, on the basis of 20% conversion efficiency, it is estimated that every percentage point increase in conversion efficiency can save more than 5% of the cost for downstream power plants. For
this reason, listed companies engaged in downstream power stations such as Three Gorges, Tianhe, Longji and Dongfang Risheng, as well as local photovoltaic power station operators such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shanxi and Jiangxi, have shown "higher interest" in investing in perovskite.
On the other hand, due to the "dimensionality reduction" of perovskite batteries in terms of cost and efficiency, the battery manufacturing process can be shortened from 2-3 days to 1 hour, which can be completed in a factory. If perovskite can be fully promoted in the future, the industry chain of photovoltaic industry will be greatly shortened, and the value of upstream, middle and downstream will be more concentrated.
Giant layout "self-help"
in the face of this subversive technology, according to incomplete statistics, nearly 20 listed companies have shown interest in perovskite solar cells.
With regard to the two leading photovoltaic companies, Tongwei said in last year's semi-annual report that the company has fully launched the research and development of cutting-edge technologies such as perovskite/silicon tandem batteries; Longji Green Energy announced that it has 20 patents related to perovskite. In terms of
cells and components, Trina Solar disclosed at the end of August last year that the company had developed a perovskite/crystalline silicon two-terminal tandem solar cell laboratory with an efficiency of 29.2%, which was tested by the third party of the international authoritative certification body with an efficiency of 27.9%. Integration giants such as Jingke Energy and Dongfang Risheng also revealed their high concern and R & D reserves for perovskite technology. In response to investors
, Zhonglai said that the company's perovskite tandem batteries are being developed, and at this stage, the focus is on the research and development of bottom batteries matching perovskite batteries. Lida shares and Tuori Xinneng also announced that they would start to lay out the industrialization capability of the technology. In terms of
equipment manufacturers, Jiejia Weichuang announced that the whole line of perovskite equipment has entered the research and development stage; Jingshan Light Machinery announced that it has shipped perovskite battery equipment, and is actively laying out and carrying out corresponding technical reserves.
With regard to overseas market progress, TandemPV and nTact, the perovskite companies of the United States, announced that they would use perovskite coatings to improve the efficiency of silicon solar modules; Oxford Photovoltaic of the United Kingdom laid out the first 100MW perovskite production line in Germany, which will serve the manufacturing of heterojunction/perovskite laminated photovoltaic cells; Voltec Solar, a French photovoltaic module manufacturer, announced that it would introduce 4 T perovskite/silicon tandem technology and build a "super factory".
In addition to the traditional photovoltaic giants, Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Ningde Times, also said at the performance presentation in May 2022 that the company's research on perovskite photovoltaic cells is progressing smoothly and is building a pilot line. It is worth noting that this is the first time that Ningde has publicly acknowledged its involvement in the field of photovoltaic cells since it was exposed by the media in 2020.
Some analysts believe that if the Ningde era tries to enter the photovoltaic industry, the most similar to the lithium battery process is perovskite, both of which have coating processes. In addition, the Ningde era has abundant funds, which is also a good thing for the industry. "
Industry insiders pointed out that among listed companies, Xiexin and Ningde have made practical progress in perovskite research and development.". For Longji, Tongwei, Tianhe and other integration leaders, perhaps the integration of the acquisition of unlisted targets is another choice.
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