海螺水泥、天山股份、塔牌等上市企业对市场最新判断

2023-02-04 13:23:44

针对2023年未来市场走势,近期海螺水泥、天山股份、塔牌集团等在回答投资者提问时给出了回复。

过去一年,水泥行业的日子并不好过。

从价格走势来看,2022年全国水泥价格指数走势整体不断下行,价格重心逐步下移,水泥价格跌跌不止。

据中国水泥网了解,近日披露业绩预告的上市公司大都表现欠佳,已公布业绩预告的水泥企业,几乎均出现净利润同比大幅下滑的状况,甚至出现企业亏损的情况。

数据来源:上市公司公告整理

在2022年业绩不佳的原因上,水泥企业们给出了类似的回答。

1月30日,海螺水泥发布2022年度业绩预告,预计2022年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为139.73亿元到166.33亿元,与上年同期(法定披露数据)相比,将减少166.34亿元到192.94 亿元,同比减少50%到58%。

公告称业绩预减的主要原因为:2022 年,受房地产市场下行、疫情反复等因素影响,水泥市场需求下滑,公司水泥产品销价及销量同比下降;同时受煤炭价格及电价上涨影响,公司产品成本同比上升。

同样预计净利下滑一半以上的天山股份公告表示,业绩变动主要原因系本报告期内,受新冠疫情反复及房地产开发投资增速下滑等因素影响,市场需求减少,导致天山水泥主要产品水泥熟料和商品混凝土的销量和价格同比有不同程度下降。受煤炭等主要原燃材料价格上涨影响,水泥熟料成本同比上升。

除此之外,冀东水泥、华新水泥等多家净利腰斩的企业均表示,2022年业绩下滑的主要原因是受到疫情反复影响和地产下行的拖累,加之煤炭等能源价格上涨导致成本上升。

受上述因素影响,预计2022年水泥行业利润降同比下滑50%以上。

针对2023年未来市场走势,近期海螺水泥、天山股份、塔牌集团等在回答投资者提问时这样表示:

塔牌集团:水泥下游主要分为基建、地产和新农村建设三部分,其中房地产市场为重要变量,随着 2022 年 12 月疫情防控措施调整,“金融 16 条”及“三支箭”政策出台支持房地产行业发展,房地产市场有望在 2023 年企稳回暖。

2023 年 1 月广东省十四届人大一次会议期间,广东省发展改革委公布了 2023 年广东 1530 个重点项目情况,2023 年度计划投资约 1 万亿元。重点项目作为稳增长重要部分,预计将在一定程度上给水泥需求带来提振。

2023 年,广东、广西、福建秉持水泥行业绿色低碳高质量发展原则,继续开展力度较强的错峰生产行动;同时,煤炭价格预计稳中有降,对成本亦会有积极影响,行业盈利水平有望迎来复苏。

海螺水泥:随着国内煤炭产能稳步释放,进口通道预期改善,下游消费需求弱势增长,预计今年国内煤炭供求关系将得到明显改善。

在政策和市场的双重引导下,煤炭价格将逐步回归至合理区间。同时,得益于社会面储煤能力和储煤设施条件不断完善,突发事件、极端天气等不确定性因素对供求关系影响的边际效应不断减弱,预计2023年煤价波动幅度将有所收窄。

天山股份:随着地产端支持政策的逐步落实,“保交楼”的有效推进,地产端的循环链路有望好转,地产新开工及施工需求降幅有望收窄;之前因疫情扰动、项目资金不足等影响而未能落地的基建项目有望逐步在未来形成实物工作量,将会支撑拉动水泥需求。

上峰水泥:公司对2023年水泥行业景气度恢复保持乐观信心。

需求方面,地产行业将步入复苏通道,同时基建工程重点项目将拉动需求;供给方面,产能减量置换和错峰生产政策的严格落实执行,将使供给端得到一定程度的控制。另外,一系列政策出台,对能耗、碳排放等方面进行了更多约束,对水泥供给会形成影响。

此外,业内人士也表示,2023年,基建投资将继续保持较快增长,房地产行业也有望触底企稳,水泥需求总体持平或略有下降,需求再次大幅下滑的概率低。预计2023年行业效益水平比2022年将有改善。

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Correlation

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难关未过,未来已来。接下来,让我们一起回顾2023年水泥行业热点事件,总结过往,戮力前行。

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