In the past year, the cement industry has had a hard time.
From the perspective of price trend, in 2022, the overall trend of the national cement price index continued to decline, the price focus gradually moved down, and the cement price continued to fall.
According to China Cement Network, most of the listed companies that have recently disclosed their performance forecasts have not performed well, and almost all of the cement companies that have announced their performance forecasts have seen a sharp decline in net profit year-on-year, or even a loss.
Data source: Announcement
of listed companies On the reasons for the poor performance in 2022, cement companies gave similar answers.
On January 30, Conch Cement issued a performance forecast for 2022, predicting that the net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company in 2022 will be 13.973 billion yuan to 16.633 billion yuan, which will decrease by 16.634 billion yuan to 19.294 billion yuan compared with the same period last year (statutory disclosure data). Decreased by 50% to 58% year on year.
The announcement said that the main reasons for the performance reduction were: in 2022, due to the downturn of the real estate market, repeated epidemics and other factors, the demand for cement market declined, and the sales price and sales volume of the company's cement products declined year-on-year; at the same time, due to the impact of rising coal prices and electricity prices, the company's product costs increased year-on-year. The announcement of Tianshan Stock Company, which
also expects net profit to decline by more than half, said that the main reason for the change in performance was the decrease in market demand during the reporting period due to the repeated outbreak of COVID-19 and the decline in the growth rate of investment in real estate development. As a result, the sales volume and price of cement clinker and commercial concrete, the main products of Tianshan Cement , decreased to varying degrees compared with the same period last year. Affected by the rising prices of coal and other major raw materials, the cost of cement clinker increased year on year.
In addition, Jidong Cement, Huaxin Cement and other companies that cut their net profits in half said that the main reason for the decline in performance in 2022 was the repeated impact of the epidemic and the downturn in real estate, as well as the rising cost of coal and other energy prices.
Affected by the above factors, the profit of the cement industry is expected to decline by more than 50% year-on-year in 2022.
In view of the future market trend in 2023, Conch Cement, Tianshan Stock and Tapai Group said in response to investors'questions recently:
Tapai Group: The downstream of cement is mainly divided into three parts: infrastructure, real estate and new rural construction, among which the real estate market is an important variable. With the adjustment of epidemic prevention and control measures in December 2022, the introduction of "16 Financial Articles" and "Three Arrows" policies to support the development of the real estate industry , the real estate market is expected to stabilize and recover in 2023. During the first session of the 14th National People's Congress of Guangdong Province in January
2023, the Guangdong Development and Reform Commission announced 1530 key projects in Guangdong in 2023, with a planned investment of about 1 trillion yuan in 2023. As an important part of steady growth, key projects are expected to boost cement demand to a certain extent. In
2023, Guangdong, Guangxi and Fujian will adhere to the principle of green, low-carbon and high-quality development of the cement industry, and continue to carry out strong peak-shifting production actions. Meanwhile, the coal price is expected to decline steadily, which will also have a positive impact on the cost, and the industry's profitability is expected to usher in a recovery.
Conch Cement: With the steady release of domestic coal production capacity, the expected improvement of import channels and the weak growth of downstream consumption demand, it is expected that the domestic coal supply and demand relationship will be significantly improved this year.
Under the dual guidance of policy and market, coal prices will gradually return to a reasonable range. At the same time, thanks to the continuous improvement of social coal storage capacity and coal storage facilities, the marginal effect of uncertainties such as emergencies and extreme weather on supply and demand is weakening, and the fluctuation of coal price is expected to narrow in 2023.
Tianshan shares: With the gradual implementation of the real estate side support policy and the effective promotion of "guaranteed delivery", the circulation link of the real estate side is expected to improve, and the decline in demand for new real estate construction and construction is expected to narrow; Infrastructure projects that failed to land due to epidemic disturbance and insufficient project funds are expected to gradually form physical workload in the future, which will support the demand for cement.
Shangfeng Cement : The Company is optimistic and confident about the recovery of the cement industry in 2023. On the
demand side, the real estate industry will enter the recovery channel, while key infrastructure projects will drive demand. On the supply side, the strict implementation of the policies of capacity reduction replacement and off-peak production will control the supply side to a certain extent. In addition, a series of policies have been introduced to impose more restrictions on energy consumption and carbon emissions, which will have an impact on cement supply.
In addition, industry insiders also said that in 2023, infrastructure investment will continue to grow rapidly, the real estate industry is expected to stabilize at the bottom, cement demand is generally flat or slightly declining, and the probability of another sharp decline in demand is low. It is expected that the benefit level of the industry in 2023 will be improved compared with that in 2022.
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