In the past year, the cement industry has had a hard time.
From the perspective of price trend, in 2022, the overall trend of the national cement price index continued to decline, the price focus gradually moved down, and the cement price continued to fall.
According to China Cement Network, most of the listed companies that have recently disclosed their performance forecasts have not performed well. Almost all the cement companies that have announced their performance forecasts have seen a sharp decline in net profit compared with the same period last year. Many enterprises have suffered losses. Xizang Tianlu, Fujian Cement and other companies are expected to lose more than 200 million yuan. Cement companies have reached a consensus on the reasons for the poor performance in
2022.
On January 30, Conch Cement issued a performance forecast for 2022, predicting that the net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company in 2022 will be 13.973 billion yuan to 16.633 billion yuan, which will decrease by 16.634 billion yuan to 19.294 billion yuan compared with the same period last year (statutory disclosure data). Decreased by 50% to 58% year on year.
The announcement said that the main reasons for the performance reduction were: in 2022, due to the downturn of the real estate market, repeated epidemics and other factors, the demand for cement market declined, and the sales price and sales volume of the company's cement products declined year-on-year; at the same time, due to the impact of rising coal prices and electricity prices, the company's product costs increased year-on-year.
Coincidentally, the announcement of Tianshan Stock Company, which expects net profit to decline by more than half, said that the main reason for the performance change was that the market demand decreased during the reporting period due to the repeated COVID-19 epidemic and the decline in the growth rate of real estate development investment. As a result, the sales volume and price of cement clinker and commercial concrete, the main products of Tianshan Cement , decreased to varying degrees compared with the same period last year. Affected by the rising prices of coal and other major raw materials, the cost of cement clinker increased year on year.
In addition, Jidong Cement, Huaxin Cement and other companies that cut their net profits in half said that the main reason for the decline in performance in 2022 was the repeated impact of the epidemic and the downturn in real estate, as well as the rising cost of coal and other energy prices.
Affected by the above factors, the profit of the cement industry is expected to fall to 70-80 billion yuan in 2022, down more than 50% from 169.4 billion yuan in 2021.
However, after the "winter" of 2022, looking forward to 2023, the cement industry is expected to usher in a recovery. In terms of
real estate, the recent policies are more favorable, all pointing to the demand side of real estate, which is expected to drive housing sales to stabilize and rebound. Although the real estate industry as a whole is difficult to return to the previous era of high growth, with the improvement of the industry situation, it will be conducive to stabilizing the cement market demand. In terms of
infrastructure, since the beginning of the New Year, major projects have been intensively started all over the country, including many infrastructure projects. Today, the impact of the epidemic is minimal, and with the recovery of investment, infrastructure projects and the civil market are expected to provide more obvious support for cement demand in 2023.
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