[评论]多地调涨水泥价格,需求旺季来了吗?

2023-09-21 13:37:10

近期,多地水泥价格开始上涨,特别是华东安徽、浙江和江苏等长三角地区大面积上调15-20元/吨,时值“金九银十”期间,需求旺季似乎已然到来,然而真实情况是这样吗?

近期,多地水泥价格开始上涨,特别是华东安徽、浙江和江苏等长三角地区大面积上调15-20元/吨,时值“金九银十”期间,需求旺季似乎已然到来,然而真实情况是这样吗?

一、调涨待观察 下跌真落实

9月中旬以来,华东安徽、江苏、浙江地区,东北辽宁、吉林地区以及中南河南、湖南地区等密集上调水泥价格,执行情况待观察,但也有四川、广东等少部分地区仍在下调水泥价格,且均已落实。总的来看,市场涨价氛围浓厚,但上涨动力似乎不足。笔者认为,需求恢复偏慢且整体偏弱是当前行业涨价难以完全落实的根本原因,今年9月难言“旺季”,涨价空间有待观察。

表1:近期部分地区水泥价格变动情况

资料来源:水泥大数据研究院整理

二、煤价淡季走强 成本压力加大

9月本该用煤淡季,然而煤价却出现“淡季偏强”特征。究其原因,一方面煤炭产区事故频发,安检力度加大,不少煤矿暂时停产,导致供应阶段性偏紧;另一方面,国际原油价格持续上涨,带动国内化工品利润修复,化工行业开工率提升,化工用煤采购增加。多重因素交织下,9月煤炭价格震荡上涨,目前煤价在990元/吨左右,较月初上涨145元/吨,涨幅高达17%,水泥企业生产成本压力加大。部分企业反馈,即使当前水泥价格上调20元/吨,也难以抵消煤价上涨带来的成本增加压力,本轮水泥价格上涨的主要驱动力在于煤价上涨。

图1:9月煤价震荡走高(元/吨)

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

三、需求边际好转 整体仍较疲弱

按照往年9月旺季节奏,水泥企业发运率多在7-8成,华东和中南等需求旺盛地区甚至超过9成,然而目前全国水泥发运率仅48.7%,不足五成,甚至不及2022年同期水平,华东、中南等热门地区出货量不足六成,尽管需求较之前边际好转,但整体仍弱,水泥价格上涨的根基并不牢固。与此同时,磨机运转率稳步提高,水泥库容比达到74%高位,厂家库存高企,价格上行压力较大。

图2:全国水泥发运率走势(%)

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

四、“金九银十”不宜过分乐观

随着下游需求的逐步改善,水泥价格仍有上涨空间,但不宜过分乐观。第一:成本因素。造成当前煤价上涨的主要原因在于安检力度加大导致供应阶段性偏紧,一旦煤矿整改完毕叠加保供增产政策持续发力,煤炭将重回供需宽松格局,届时煤价可能回落,水泥成本支撑力度减弱。第二,需求仍弱。8月100大中城市土地成交面积7071.1万平方米,同比下降24%,9月高频数据显示这一降幅可能扩大,土地市场疲弱将影响新开工和投资,预计地产端短期仍将磨底,水泥需求弱于同期,“金九银十”或将难至。

图3:2023年1-8月100大中城市土地成交面积处于同期低位(万平方米)

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)


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