[Special Topic] Operation Analysis and Prospect of Concrete Industry in 2022

First, real estate indicators have weakened in an all-round way, and the output of commercial and mixed products has declined significantly

. In 2022, the macro-economy has been impacted by various factors, and the pressure of domestic steady growth is more obvious, so the policy support for infrastructure has been increased. In 2022, the government proposed to carry out infrastructure investment moderately ahead of schedule, and the issuance scale of new special bonds in China exceeded 4 trillion yuan for the first time. New infrastructure and new energy projects were included in the scope of key support, and financial support for key investment projects was strengthened. The number of infrastructure projects under construction increased significantly during the year. The growth rate of infrastructure investment rose again to a high-speed growth range, with infrastructure investment (excluding electricity and other industries) growing by 9.4% year-on-year in 2022, an increase of 9 percentage points over 2021.

Meanwhile, the total real estate investment in 2022 was 13.29 trillion yuan, down 10% from the same period last year, and the growth rate of investment fell into the negative growth range. Under the influence of the "three red lines" and other policies, the financing of the real estate industry is limited, enterprises are generally short of funds, and debt defaults are common. The shortage of funds in the real estate industry has had a serious impact on the construction of the project, and the trust in the real estate market has been damaged due to the suspension or suspension of construction in many places. At the same time, due to the continuous decline of domestic housing prices, even though stimulus policies have been introduced around the country, consumers'willingness to buy houses has not been significantly improved, the sales of commercial housing have continued to decrease year on year, and the lack of sales returns has further aggravated the situation of capital shortage in the real estate industry. In this context, the growth rate of investment in real estate development continues to decline, which is the main reason for dragging down the growth of commercial demand in the year.

Figure 1: Significant difference in the growth rate of real estate and infrastructure investment in 2022 (%)

Data source: cement big data (https://data.ccement.com/)