According to China Cement Network Market Center, market feedback, during the Spring Festival, some enterprises around Chaohu and other markets implemented off-peak kiln shutdown, inventory slightly lower, coupled with the early clinker prices have dropped to a relatively low level. Since January 29, some major enterprises along the Yangtze River in Anhui have tried to raise the price of clinker by 10 yuan/ton. After adjustment, the ex-factory quotation of clinker along the Yangtze River is about 290-300 yuan/ton.
Anhui is the headquarters of Conch Cement , the leading cement industry in China, as well as the core market in East China and the key node of the cement market along the Yangtze River. Nowadays, the price of Anhui clinker along the Yangtze River has opened a rising channel, which is undoubtedly a positive attempt in the cement market in the Year of Rabbit.
However, the final implementation of this round of price increases is not low.
Based on the convenient water transportation conditions in the Yangtze River Basin, the market along the Yangtze River has always been a whole, and Hubei and Chongqing in the upper and middle reaches have long had an important influence on the downstream markets of Anhui, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shanghai. Therefore, whether the downstream market can recover depends not only on the local market, but also on the supply situation in the upper and middle reaches.
It is precisely in the supply link that there is a big problem.
Especially in Hubei, according to market sources, the shutdown of kilns in Hubei cement industry during the New Year is not ideal. Some cement enterprises are still in production even on the 30th of the year, and the inventory is relatively sufficient, which is bound to have a greater impact on the downstream market. According to the data of
China Cement Network Big Data Center, the ratio of clinker storage capacity in Hubei is 67.5%, which is 20% higher than that in the same period last year, and the pressure of storage capacity is high.
In addition, according to the notice on normal peak-shifting production in the cement industry issued by Hubei recently, the number of peak-shifting production days of Hubei cement clinker production line in 2023 shall not be less than 60 days; however, the number of peak-shifting production days of cement clinker production line of cement production enterprises with performance classification reaching Grade A shall not be less than 30 days; The number of off-peak production days for green factory enterprises shall not be less than 45 days; meanwhile, there is also a corresponding exemption for off-peak production days for B-level performance enterprises or collaborative disposal projects.
In contrast, the off-peak production time in the surrounding Henan, Hunan, Shaanxi and other places has increased significantly compared with Hubei, and the implementation is stronger. Taking Henan as an example, from November 15, 2022 to March 15, 2023, peak staggering and kiln shutdown will be implemented, including all cement clinker production lines, with 63-121 days of kiln shutdown. Shaanxi has also issued a clear notice requiring all cement clinker production lines in the province to stop production for 100 days from 0:00 on December 1, 2022 to 24:00 on March 10, 2023.
In addition, in the notice of peak-staggering production in Hubei Province, although all localities are required to organize cement clinker production lines to carry out peak-staggering production in autumn and winter, hot summer days and major events with frequent heavy pollution weather, there is no clear time point, and the peak-staggering production time has great flexibility. In terms of
cost competitiveness, Hubei is also not weak. After the increase of clinker along the Yangtze River in Anhui in this round, the offshore quotation is 290-300 yuan/ton, but Hubei cement enterprises also have good cost control. It is reported that the ex-factory price of clinker in a large cement enterprise in Hubei is only 250 yuan/ton, while the cost of clinker per ton in some downstream core enterprises is 260-270 yuan/ton.
On the whole, the Hubei market may become an important factor restricting the increase of clinker along the Yangtze River.
On the one hand, the shutdown of kilns in Hubei during the Spring Festival is not ideal, and the clinker inventory is sufficient; on the other hand, the number of off-peak days is less and the enforcement is weak, so it is difficult to form a joint force; in addition, the cost competitiveness of clinker in Hubei cement enterprises is not weak, so whether the price of clinker along the Yangtze River can be raised in place depends to a great extent on the market situation in Hubei.
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