due to a sharp decline in the stock of glass during the Spring Festival.
Short-term glass weakness is difficult to change, but the upward trend of price focus is still in the year. Under the favorable influence of reduced supply and increased demand, medium-term inventory is expected to peak and fall, and prices are expected to rebound. Later investors can focus on the opportunity to do more FG2305 near 1550. Glass futures fell sharply
on Monday. As of the close, the main contract FG2305 fell 100 yuan/ton to 1636 yuan/ton, or 5.76%. On that day, the main contract increased its position by 74,000 hands to 794,000 hands
. First, due to the weak reality, the futures price fell sharply. On the first day
after the festival, glass futures prices and spot prices went out of the opposite trend, mainly due to the accumulation of glass stocks during the Spring Festival hit a new five-year high.
From the basic point of view, due to the continuous loss, the number of glass cold repair in the second half of 2022 was large, the latest daily melting volume dropped to 158180T/D, a decrease of about 8% compared with the same period last year, and the supply pressure was slightly weakened.
On the demand side, the demand for glass deep processing has declined seasonally recently, and the number of days of orders is at a low level. During the Spring Festival, most of the deep processing enterprises have holidays, and the demand for glass has entered the freezing point. During the Spring Festival, glass stocks accumulated substantially, with upstream stocks increasing by about 590000 tons to 3.8 million tons, slightly lower than peak in 2022. The historic high level has a greater impact on market sentiment, and the futures price has fallen significantly. In addition, the first quarter is the peak period of debt repayment for domestic housing enterprises, and the shortage of funds may affect the construction site, which has a certain drag on the demand for glass.
Second, the relationship between supply and demand or improvement, the market outlook need not be overly pessimistic
for the market outlook, we believe that the glass stage rebound is still not over, short-term or weak shocks, medium-term can be relatively optimistic. In the short term, glass demand has not yet recovered, high inventory pressure still exists, and temporary price shock consolidation is the main factor. In the medium term, glass supply has declined significantly, demand improvement is expected to gradually materialize, supply-demand relationship is expected to improve, inventory is expected to peak and fall in the year, and prices need not be overly pessimistic. Late investors can rely on important support layout 05/09 contract orders, and strictly stop losses. Focus on the support near 1550 below the 05 contract and the support near 1600 below the 09 contract.
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