拿地规模继续下跌 水泥需求前景不容乐观

2023-09-19 11:33:54

国家统计局数据显示,1—8月份,全国房地产开发投资76900亿元,同比下降8.8%(按可比口径计算);其中,住宅投资58425亿元,下降8.0%。

国家统计局数据显示,1—8月份,全国房地产开发投资76900亿元,同比下降8.8%(按可比口径计算);其中,住宅投资58425亿元,下降8.0%。

水泥行业最关心的新开工方面,房屋新开工面积63891万平方米,下降24.4%。其中,住宅新开工面积46636万平方米,下降24.7%。

另外,1—8月份,房地产开发企业到位资金87116亿元,同比下降12.9%。其中,国内贷款10671亿元,下降12.8%;利用外资35亿元,下降41.6%;自筹资金27195亿元,下降22.9%;定金及预收款30185亿元,下降7.3%;个人按揭贷款15453亿元,下降4.3%。

拿地方面,克而瑞研究中心数据显示,8月份核心城市持续“少量、多批次”供地,整体土地市场规模、热度均处于低位。新增货值百强门槛值同比跌幅小幅收窄,拿地百强的投资金额同比下降13%,百强房企拿地销售比仅0.18,且仍然有近半数百强房企尚未拿地,投资意愿处于谷底。

企业表现上,央国企仍是土地市场主力军,策略上持续聚焦一二线城市、核心优质地块。

房地产是水泥需求主要来源。

今年以来,受房地产投资增速下滑等因素影响,国内水泥需求持续下滑,价格行情承压,行业利润预计大幅度下跌。

中国水泥网数据显示,当前国内均价已经创下五年来新低,华东水泥均价更是回到2009年水平。今年初以来,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)跌幅接近40点。8月底9月初,国内多地开始尝试上调水泥价格,但由于需求不足,落实情况不接,很快跌回原位。

利润方面,今年上半年国内水泥企业绝大多数出现利润大幅缩水,甚至出现亏损。行业利润总额164亿元,创下2015年以来新低,业内预计水泥行业全年利润可能低于400亿,同样创下2015年以来新低。

拿地情况与未来水泥需求息息相关。

房企拿地是房屋新开工较好的领先指标,而水泥需求处于房地产开发的前周期,短期内受到新开工面积的直接影响(通常开发商在拿地后6个月内新开工),1-8月拿地总额继续下降,意味着房地产投资积极性仍然不足,未来水泥需求缺乏支撑。

在房地产行业态势下行背景下,业内将更多发展目光集中在基建领域。不过,一方面基建投资对水泥需求缺乏爆发力,且难以对冲房地产下行带来的需求下行压力;另一方面,土地财政一直在地方占据较大的比重,房地产行业态势下行,会在一定程度上加重地方债务问题,进而影响基建投资落实效果。

由此来看,未来国内水泥需求依旧堪忧,

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Correlation

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