Zhu Gongshan: New Energy Ecological Leap Map in the Era of Great Change

of May 23, at the 16th SNEC Global Photovoltaic Conference, Zhu Gongshan, Chairman of Xiexin Group, delivered a keynote speech entitled "New Energy Ecological Transition Map in the Era of Great Change".

Zhu Gongshan predicts that the world's new photovoltaic installed capacity will be around 350 GW this year, and the cumulative installed capacity will probably exceed hydropower next year, natural gas in 2026, and coal in 2027. Under the background of integration of source, network, load and storage, the energy storage industry is experiencing explosive growth. It is expected that in the next three years, the new energy storage will increase by about 80 GW annually, and the cumulative scale is expected to reach about 230 GW by 2025.

By 2050, the proportion of electricity in energy consumption will increase from 21% to 51%. As a new type of productivity, computing power will be embedded with new intelligent manufacturing and become one of the major electricity users. AI gives birth to the digital mirror world, computing power makes the mirror more accurate, and power makes the mirror more stable and clear. "Energy AI" will become the next investment hotspot.

Facing the future, Zhu Gongshan put forward four suggestions:

First, rational first, orderly evolution, draw lessons from the historical cycle fluctuations of barbaric expansion, disorderly growth, ups and downs, change from impulsive blind investment to rational and steady investment, aim at the iterative trend, based on the internal logic of supply and demand, competitive and cooperative development, symbiosis and co-prosperity.

Second, science and technology should be the first and innovation should be the king. Returning to the first principle of new energy development-based on the cost economy brought about by the upgrading of science and technology, we should work together in the research and development of key technologies and "bottleneck" technologies, learn from each other's strengths and complement each other's weaknesses, seize the axis of scientific and technological progress, mode innovation, material revolution, equipment revolution and application revolution, and jointly unlock the future green power low-carbon wisdom space.

Third, we should integrate with the international community and unify standards. In terms of carbon footprint basic database, carbon footprint evaluation methods and processes, and carbon neutralization certification, we should unify standards, improve processes, establish models, and be in line with international standards.

Fourth, cross-border integration and coordinated development. It not only takes the immersive love of "being in it", but also needs to use the perspective of "the third eye" to jump out to promote new energy to embrace change across industries and fields.

The following is the full text of Zhu Gongshan's speech:

Dear leaders, experts at home and abroad, and colleagues,

good morning. Two years have passed since the opening of the last General Assembly on June 2, 2021. What we did not expect was that in the general downturn of the world economy, the new energy industry represented by photovoltaics grew against the trend and became one of the few high-quality industrial tracks. Today, SNEC is more than just

First, industry butterfly change: photovoltaic and other new energy stand on the "era C". Photovoltaic, which has entered the terawatt era, is deeply embedded in other energy forms and application scenarios.

In August last year, China

From the perspective of the global spatial pattern, the rise in energy prices in Europe has led to the rapid growth of household photovoltaic demand, and it is expected that European photovoltaic will maintain a high growth rate of 40% this year. In 2025, the total photovoltaic installed capacity in Europe will exceed 320 GW, and will reach more than 1TW by 2030. In the next ten years, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic in the United States will also reach about 800 GW.

Under the background of integration of source, network, load and storage, the energy storage industry is experiencing explosive growth. It is expected that in the next three years, the new energy storage will increase by about 80 GW annually, and the cumulative scale is expected to reach about 230 GW by 2025. In terms of hydrogen energy, with the continuous increase of single-line production capacity and the gradual decrease of power consumption, the market competitiveness of green hydrogen is gradually improving. It is expected that after 2025, green hydrogen is expected to achieve parity with natural gas hydrogen production, and around 2030, it is expected to achieve parity with coal hydrogen production, and maintain a compound growth of about 5% in the next decade.

New energy is changing the world, and we need to use cross-border thinking to re-recognize and redefine the transition of new energy under the new space-time coordinates. Today, when we talk about photovoltaics, we are actually talking about new energy sources such as wind, solar, hydrogen and ammonia storage, as well as the diversified transformation of source, network, load and storage, including the new power system brought about by the digital energy revolution.

Next, high proportion of renewable energy will be superimposed with high proportion of power electronic equipment, "bit + watt", that is, a new digital energy system composed of digital technology and power electronic technology, which will build the base of economic and social development in the way of automatic regulation, intelligent operation and dynamic balance. In this new digital energy system, AI, as well as the three core cornerstones of AI-data, computing power and algorithms, as well as revolutionary technologies such as digital twins, mobile energy storage, virtual/augmented reality, biotechnology, human-computer interaction and cognition, will produce friendly and close "photosynthesis" with the new energy system.

At the Buffett Equity Investment Conference some time ago, energy was mentioned 40 times. One of the four engines of Buffett's investment income is new energy. Buffett believes that this is "our last giant". Personally, I think this metaphor is very vivid and accurate. On the road of tackling climate change and promoting global carbon neutrality, new energy is also our last giant.

2. Iterative upgrade: Silicon energy will play an important role in the new power system. The "single point breakthrough" of silicon optical hydrogen storage drives the "whole chain dance" of new energy.

At the last SNEC conference, we shared a view that carbon neutralization is giving birth to a clean alternative revolution in which "silicon-based energy" replaces "carbon-based energy". The essence of energy transformation is that clean energy represented by "silicon energy" replaces traditional "carbon energy". At the same quality, the net output of silicon energy is more than a thousand times that of carbon energy. In terms of the combination of silicon and light, assuming that half of the earth's surface is covered with photovoltaic modules, it only takes about two or three hours to generate electricity to meet the global electricity demand for a year. From silicon-based to system and then to electricity, the energy payback period is only about one year, while the application of GCL-Fbr granular silicon material with the lowest carbon footprint can be shortened to seven or eight months, and the whole life cycle power input-output ratio reaches about 1:64. Silicon energy will play a vital role

in highly coupled new power systems such as high proportion of new energy, new energy storage systems and flexible HVDC transmission. Silicon-based power devices, especially silicon carbide power devices, will enable energy to move from physical form to digital form, realize chip miniaturization, low power consumption, high efficiency, controllable, tradable and adjustable energy, change energy into digital, change power into computing power, and speed up computing power, thus bringing about changes in social productivity. Because of silicon energy and the deep participation of silicon-based power devices, next, "large power supply, large power grid" can be compatible with "distributed", a large number of user-side subjects have dual attributes of power generation and power consumption, flexible interaction between source, network, load and storage, energy-saving system and mobile energy storage system will take on a new look.

On the road map of mutual promotion and integrated development of silicon and light, a variety of technological routes are flourishing. But looking at the essence through the phenomenon, in the final analysis, it is the "single-point breakthrough" of key materials, core technology and production equipment, which promotes the "whole chain dance" of the industrial chain. TOPCon, IBC, HJT heterojunction and other N-type battery technologies, with the advantage of backwardness, profit premium continues to widen, and a new round of competition on the N-type battery industry track has begun. In the era of N-type batteries, the technology combination of GCL-Fbr and CCZ will also promote the development of battery industry along the path of new technologies with the advantages of cost, efficiency, quality and carbon footprint. Starting

from 2023, perovskite battery technology will also officially enter the first year of mass production. After crossing the most important threshold of mass production, perovskite will stride into a new era of empirical application. From small area to large size, high efficiency, from laboratory to production line, industrialization, from single junction to superposition with crystalline silicon, the conversion efficiency has reached more than 30%, which will open a huge new space for optoelectronic applications. Perovskite will appear in flexible wearable electronic devices, lightweight portable power generation devices, automobiles, photovoltaic " In the process of wind and solar hydrogen storage technology going hand in hand, energy storage, as the "porter" of energy and the "stabilizer" of new energy, is becoming more and more important. In the future, intelligence, energy storage and hydrogen energy are the key to break the bottleneck of new energy, while materials, technology, management/control system and security are the key to break the bottleneck of energy storage development. As the most critical factor affecting the performance of the battery core, cathode materials with the least loss of charge and discharge and the highest energy efficiency will be favored by the market, thus bringing higher life to downstream energy storage batteries and systems, releasing more electricity and achieving better operational efficiency.

In addition, energy storage safety will become the rigid requirement of "Tianzi No.1".In the process of the coexistence of large bases and industrial and commercial distribution, and the outbreak of domestic market and overseas energy storage demand, energy storage enterprises will face a comprehensive upgrade test, mainly including:

the ability to respond to the "five big and six small" bidding demand; Sales channels and after-sales service systems

for overseas markets, and life-cycle security capabilities for industrial and commercial distributed customers;

Faced with the large-scale development ability of upstream key materials, intermediate core technologies and downstream application channels, the energy storage industry ecology will surely move towards the shuffling road of the strong and the survival of the fittest. With the disorderly development of

energy storage industry, the situation of uneven quality of products will be changed. Industry authorities will also launch a series of technical specifications and safety standards based on the leading technologies of leading enterprises. As the executive vice president of the Electric Transportation and Energy Storage Branch of the China Electricity Union, I am also working with industry experts and colleagues to assist relevant parties in this work. In the field of

green hydrogen preparation, alkaline electrolyzers are developing in the direction of large standard, low energy consumption and intellectualization, proton exchange membrane technology is constantly improving, fuel cells, hydrogen storage systems, hydrogen fuel, electrolyzers and supporting facilities are synchronously reducing costs and increasing efficiency, and the propositions that restrict the development of the industrial chain, such as safety, industry standards, R & D and manufacturing costs, are gradually being solved. The parity of new energy and energy storage promotes green energy to become more green hydrogen. It is expected that by the middle and late period of the 15th Five-Year Plan, China will form a relatively complete technological innovation system for hydrogen energy industry, clean energy hydrogen production and supply system. At the same time, with the cleaner production evaluation of high energy consumption and high emission projects becoming normal, large carbon emitters such as steel, cement, oil refining and coking will be transformed into green industries because of the addition of green hydrogen, giving birth to a new industrial manufacturing system with zero carbon.

To sum up, at present, all kinds of new energy forms are speeding up the process of breaking cocoons into butterflies, and the efforts of colleagues in all industries are objectively giving birth to greater technological fission and accelerating the process of energy revolution. From the former "photovoltaic +" to today's "Shago shortage", as well as "silicon photohydrogen" and "wind and solar hydrogen storage ammonia", new energy will continue to carry out cross-border combinations, broaden application scenarios, and form new species, new formats and new models.

3. Boundary breakthrough: The first half of the energy transformation is mainly the electrification of the energy system, and the second half is the same frequency resonance of low-carbon, digitalization, intellectualization and decentralization of the power system.

When GPT sets off an intelligent revolution and computing power becomes a digital infrastructure, it coincides with the C-position debut of new energy in the context of the dual-carbon target, acting as the underpinning role of the future green low-carbon world, and a boundary breakthrough in the field of new energy is unfolding along three main lines-the transformation of new power to cross-industry and cross-domain synergy. The way of energy use in various industries has been transformed to green and low-carbon, and the potential of digital elements has been fully activated. Wind and solar hydrogen storage is deeply integrated with big data, decentralized identity (DCI), digital human, basic model, machine learning, dynamic risk management, meta-universe, smart city, smart transportation, automatic driving, cloud computing, blockchain, Internet of Things, etc.

Looking to the future, the technological revolution, scenario revolution and digital revolution of new energy are sweeping every corner of the world with a prairie fire. Energy science and technology innovation has entered a period of sustained high activity. A large number of new energy technologies, such as wind power, photovoltaic, energy storage, hydrogen energy, methanol and ammonia energy, have accelerated iteration. Promote the transformation of new energy industry from resource and capital oriented to technology oriented. Adaptability technologies such as power electronics, sensor Internet of Things, full-environment simulation platform, fifth generation mobile communication, advanced computing power algorithm, industrial basic software and robots will be deeply integrated with new energy technologies to promote the continuous transformation and upgrading of the new energy industry. Electricity is fundamental to the interconnection of

all things. By 2050, the proportion of electricity in energy consumption will increase from 21% to 51%. As a new type of productivity, computing power will be embedded with new intelligent manufacturing and become one of the major electricity users. AI gives birth to the digital mirror world, computing power makes the mirror more accurate, and power makes the mirror more stable and clear. "Energy AI" will become the next investment hotspot.

Technology is the "first energy", materials are the "first cornerstone", and the next stop of photovoltaic parity is lithium power parity and energy storage parity. Further down, with the promotion of West-to-East Power Transmission, West-to-East Hydrogen Transmission and West-to-East Calculation, new modes of power consumption are constantly emerging, and new power systems with safety, efficiency, cleanliness, low carbon, flexibility and intelligent integration are coming out. Multiple types of energy storage covering the whole cycle, such as electricity storage, heat storage, gas storage and hydrogen storage, will be operated in coordination; "silicon photo-hydrogen" will be extended to the chemical industry to build a new paradigm of zero-carbon economy; Instead of traditional vehicles, new energy and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, electric vehicle, as nodes of mobile energy storage units and distributed energy sources, are empowered by the technology of "cloud moving intelligent chain edge", together with new energy power such as wind, light, H yrogen and ammonia, UHV, strong smart grid, virtual power plants, interruptible loads, etc. User side high quality regulation resources together to build a new power system.

Four, looking forward to the future, let's redefine, re-imagine and start again.

Dear leaders and colleagues, we are in an era in which new energy represented by photovoltaic, wind power and hydrogen energy resonates with zero-carbon technology. Zero-carbon transportation, zero-carbon buildings, zero-carbon chemical industry, zero-carbon agriculture, zero-carbon villages and so on are creating a new layout of zero-carbon future. On the road to carbon neutrality, the global pace is unprecedented. With the help of today's conference, I would also like to briefly put forward a few suggestions to boost the high-quality development of the new energy industry:

First, rationality comes first and orderly evolution. Drawing lessons from the historical cycle fluctuations of barbaric expansion, disorderly growth and ups and downs, we should change from impulsive and blind investment to rational and steady investment, aiming at the iterative trend, based on the internal logic of supply and demand, competitive and cooperative development, symbiosis and co-prosperity.

Second, science and technology are the first and innovation is the king. Returning to the first principle of new energy development-based on the cost economy brought about by technological upgrading, we will find that iteration is an objective law and upgrading is an inevitable trend. We should grasp the law and grow with the general trend. In the research and development of key technologies and "bottleneck" technologies, we should work together to learn from each other, seize the axis of scientific and technological progress, mode innovation, material revolution, equipment revolution and application revolution, and jointly unlock the future low-carbon wisdom space of green power.

Third, we should integrate with the international community and unify standards. In terms of carbon footprint basic database, carbon footprint evaluation methods and processes, and carbon neutralization certification, we should unify standards, improve processes, establish models, and be in line with international standards.

Fourth, cross-border integration and coordinated development. It not only takes the immersive love of "being in it", but also needs to use the perspective of "the third eye" to jump out to promote new energy to embrace change across industries and fields. Get rid of low-level industry involution and take the road of differentiation, complementarity and coordinated development.

Respect intellectual property rights, jointly protect the innovative achievements of the industry, guide the high-quality development of the industry, promote the goal of double carbon, cope with climate change, and make our contribution to the protection of the blue planet, the protection of the earth's homeland and the watch for a better future!