Boil porridge, not in time to fire, porridge is easy to burn. This pot of porridge in
our cement industry seems to be burnt.
This still has to start with listed companies, after all, this is the enterprise's own public data. The annual report of cement listed companies in the first quarter, for me, a cement practitioner for many years, looks like a hot eye. This is almost the lowest level in history.
Faced with such a result, the industry seems to attribute the primary reason to weak market demand, insufficient demand and overcapacity. Let's start with the word "overcapacity". How
is overcapacity caused?
Baidu Encyclopedia explains: Overcapacity refers to the ability to produce products, so overcapacity is relative: 1, overcapacity is the overcapacity of specific products. 2. Overcapacity is a specific period of overcapacity. 3. Overcapacity is caused by the imbalance of supply and demand structure.
Through this explanation, the author has a deeper understanding of overcapacity and fully realizes that the price rise in recent years is derived from the word "relative".
In 2015, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Measures for the Implementation of Capacity Replacement in Some Industries with Serious Overcapacity" to implement equal or reduced capacity replacement in the cement industry, and in 2018, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Measures for the Implementation of Capacity Replacement in the Cement and Glass Industry" to increase the proportion of replacement, and the industry ushered in the tide of reduced replacement. 2018-2021
Reduction replacement is still a conscientious enterprise, and a large number of production lines are replaced by the same amount, which can be described as eight immortals crossing the sea. It not only realizes the equivalent replacement, but also realizes the expansion of the new production line, so that the production capacity does not decrease but increases, and the proportion of growth can be calculated.
Reduction and replacement is a big knife and axe, spending a lot of money to do big things. Increase production and transformation, spend small money to do big things. Limited production, resulting in a short-term balance between supply and demand, or even under the condition of short supply, favorable impetus naturally needs to operate at full capacity in the period of production, otherwise it will lose a share.". Expanding production and hoarding goods have become another way besides replacement.
In recent years, large and small production lines, through production transformation, upgrading, so that the production capacity of the production line has far exceeded the original design capacity, it is understood that the overproduction range can reach 30-40%.
Combined with capacity replacement and upgrading, the actual production capacity of cement industry production line has increased by more than 30% compared with the design capacity. Conservatively, the actual production capacity of clinker may reach more than 2 billion tons, or even larger. In this way, the supply has increased in the past five years, and the increase is nothing more than time to stop production. Why
does off-peak production not work?
Since the fourth quarter of 2016, the implementation of peak staggering production has effectively controlled the production capacity. The overcapacity of 15 northern provinces has been effectively alleviated. The excess capacity in the north also reduces the impact on the southern region. It is precisely because of the implementation of peak staggering production in the north at that time that the situation of overcapacity in the cement industry was resolved and the balance between supply and demand was achieved.
Since the fourth quarter of 2016, the price of cement has increased year by year, and the benefits of the industry have rebounded significantly. In 2019, the total profit of the whole industry reached more than 180 billion yuan, reaching a historical peak. Even under the influence of the epidemic, the total profit of the industry will be more than 150 billion in 2020 and 2021.
However, the same policy has not changed, but it has declined in 2022, and the first quarter of 2023 is even worse.
of peak-shifting production is supply-side reform. In winter, the demand in the north declines. In addition to heating coal, peak-shifting also effectively controls the production capacity to cope with the overcapacity caused by the decline in demand.
From the fourth quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023, the demand for cement dropped sharply, making it difficult to remove these stocks in the four months of off-peak production, even in May 2023. Many enterprises have not emptied the clinker stored in 2022. In the
fourth quarter of 2022, the coal price is higher, and the cost of stored clinker is much higher than that of clinker produced after the Spring Festival in 2023. On the one hand, it can not be sold, on the other hand, the cost is high, so the market is self-evident.
II. Relationship between ultra-low emission and off-peak production. Many places have completed ultra-low emissions, which can reduce the number of days of kiln shutdown during peak staggering production. In the early stage, enterprises are encouraged to achieve ultra-low emissions and reduce the shutdown of kilns, which is conducive to guiding the industry to achieve ultra-low emissions.
When the vast majority of enterprises have completed ultra-low emissions, they have no additionality and should be treated equally. To achieve ultra-low emissions, we can not participate in peak staggering production, and there is no absolute strong correlation between the two.
Three: output. According to local statistics, there are so many days of shutdown, some are closer to 200 days, and the actual production is 165 days. As mentioned in the aforementioned overcapacity problem, the actual production capacity of cement industry production line has increased by more than 30% compared with the design capacity. Then the 165 days of actual production is equivalent to 165 * 1.3 = 214 before the transformation and replacement. This is only the calculation of the maximum shutdown of the kiln. If the kiln is shut down for 100 days, it is equivalent to 265 * 1.3 = 344 before transformation and replacement. How can such a high amount of off-peak production be effective.
Four: Do not worry about scarcity but inequality
(1) The difference between regions. There is a big difference in the annual number of days of kiln shutdown announced by the two adjacent regions, and it is very easy for the regions with less kiln shutdown to sell to the regions with more kiln shutdown, which causes self-evident problems.
(2) Different local enterprises do not stop kilns for various reasons, such as ultra-clean discharge, or coordinated disposal of garbage.
(3) Local enterprises do not participate in local peak staggering because they do not sell locally, mainly on the grounds of sales outside the province. May I ask whether these enterprises will stop according to the plan of off-peak kiln shutdown in other provinces? With the sharp decline in
demand, it is difficult for the industry to adapt to
the demand level of more than 2 billion tons since the peak of cement production in 2014.Even with overcapacity, the cement industry has achieved a boom stage under the leadership of leading enterprises.
However, under the downward trend of cement demand, perhaps these regions have not changed their consciousness in time, and still take high operation rate, pursuing quantity and seizing the market as the main principles, which makes it difficult to adapt to the current demand environment.
This kind of labor pains has been played out in the north for several years, fighting and stopping, and finally returning to this track. The north and the south should communicate with each other. The present of the north may be the future of the south.
In the end
, reasonable profit is the fundamental driving force for the development of the industry. You have to cook the porridge of
cement by yourself, but don't burn it.
At this time, no one can kill anyone.
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