On May 19, the national glass price index closed at 152.57 points, down 1.15% annually, and the price index rose 15.90% year-on-year. The average price of float glass sheets in China was 2313.72 yuan/ton, down 26.87 yuan/ton from the previous month.
Figure 1: Recent National Glass Price Index Trend
Data Source: Digital Building Materials Network
I. Regional Market Analysis: Most of the provinces turned
down in the week. According to the price of float glass in 15 sample provinces and cities, the price of float glass in 7 provinces fell in the week, which increased significantly compared with the previous week, and the decline was between 1 and 4%. The market in seven provinces remained unchanged. The only region where the market rose was Liaoning Province, which rose by 2.4%. See Figure 2 for details.
Figure 2: Changes in Float Glass Prices in 15 Provinces and Cities in China on a week-on-week basis (%)
Data Source: Digital Building Materials Network
II. Industry Supply Analysis: Supply of Production Capacity Increases, Inventory Increases
On May 19, there were 305 float glass production lines in China. There was no change from the previous week. During the week, the 600-ton line of Guangzhou Fuming Glass Co., Ltd. and the 600-ton line of Taibo Tianjin Glass Co., Ltd. resumed production successively, the production capacity increased, and the operating rate of float glass enterprises increased to 79.67%.
Figure 3: Number of production lines and operating rate of float glass in China (%)
Data source: Digital Building Materials Network
Recently, the production and sales of float glass market were general. Glass entered the accumulation cycle again in the week, and the inventory of float glass production enterprises in China increased by 4.35% in the week. Except for a slight decline in the southwest and northwest, glass stocks in other regions have increased to varying degrees, with North China and Central China as the main glass producing areas, the accumulation of stocks is the most obvious, and the stocks of enterprises have increased by 14.08% and 15.31% in the week. East China was in the middle of the increase, with enterprise inventory rising by 4.65%. The inventory level in South China and Northeast China increased slightly, and the enterprise inventory increased by about 2% in the week.
Figure 4: Inventory of national float glass enterprises (10,000 heavy boxes)
Data source: Digital Building Materials Network
III. Analysis of cost changes: Soda ash prices fell
sharply again, and the prices of glass raw materials and fuels continued to decline during the week. Among them, the average price of natural gas market fell by 3.11%, and the price of petroleum coke market rose slightly by 0.78%. Soda ash market fell sharply again, with prices falling by 6.17% annually. According to the cost estimation model of Cement Big Data Research Institute, on May 19, the cost of float glass production line (natural gas) was RMB1,490.56/ton, representing a month-on-month decrease of 3.32%, and the cost of float glass production line (petroleum coke) was RMB1,292.85/ton, representing a month-on-month decrease of 2.16%. According to the average price of glass, the average profits of natural gas and petroleum coke production lines are 823.16 yuan/ton and 1,020.87 yuan/ton respectively.
Figure 5: Float Glass Production Line Cost Trend Chart
Data Source: Digital Building Materials Network
IV. Futures Market Observation: Expected to be
Weak On May 19, the closing price of the national glass futures FG2405 contract was 1,432.00 yuan/ton. Compared with the closing price of 2305 contract, FG2309 contract closed at 1,582.00 yuan/ton, down 101.00 yuan/ton (6%). Overall, the weak trend of futures prices shows that the market is pessimistic about the late trend of glass.
Figure 6: Glass futures active contract closing price trend
Data source: Digital Building Materials Network
V. This week's market forecast: falling areas increase
, glass production and sales have slowed down recently, the market has a turning point, and the national inventory decline has expanded. Glass prices in half of the regions remained stable during the week, and it is expected that the number of regions where the market fell in the later period will further increase.
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