最高70元/吨!多地尝试推涨水泥价格 能否成功落实?

2023-09-11 09:22:31

终端需求恢复有限,市场情绪较为低迷,价格上涨难度较大,预计本周水泥价格或仍将延续弱势。

上周五,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)报收105.45点,环比下跌2.42%,同比下跌27.54%。

九月上旬,多地需求虽较8月底有所向好,但恢复程度极为有限,尚未达到同期水平,整体仍较疲弱,北方跌幅明显扩大。整体来看,市场情绪较为低迷,行情仍在探底。

分区域看,上周六大区域多数收跌。华北地区需求疲软,水泥价格下行7.72%;西北地区销量不佳,水泥价格走低2.45%;中南地区库存偏高,水泥价格下跌1.84%;西南地区出货低迷,价格较上周下跌1.72%;华东地区下游施工偏慢,水泥价格走弱0.87%;东北地区价格平稳,较上周没有变化。

表1:六大区域水泥价格指数变化

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

华东地区

江苏整体市场需求相对平稳,水泥价格基本无明显波动;

浙江地区9月以来天气好转,市场需求较前期有所恢复,各企业报价基本持稳运行;

安徽地区近期天气尚可,需求较前期有所好转,但仍未达到往年同期旺季水平,月初蚌埠、阜阳、淮南等地水泥价格推涨20元/吨后,目前报价维稳运行;

福建地区多数工地施工受限,市场需求低迷,3日起上调水泥及熟料价格30元/吨,整体落实难度较大;

山东地区9月以来市场需求仍未有明显起色,且多数熟料线正常生产,库存压力较大,鲁南地区水泥价格回落20-30元/吨,其余地区基本跌回8月涨前水平;

江西终端市场需求疲软,企业出货量较差,近日南昌、九江地区下调水泥价格10-20元/吨,赣州地区下跌15-35元/吨

中南地区

湖北地区市场需求销量疲软,企业出货在5-7成上下,武汉市场部分企业报价小幅下调5-10元/吨

湖南长株潭地区上周价格持稳,周边局部市场有暗降迹象;

广西地区市场需求未见好转,企业出货仍在五成上下,周内玉林地区小幅下调水泥价格10元/吨

广东方面,月初珠三角及粤西部分市场下调水泥价格15-30元/吨后,上周暂未见继续下调,整体行情弱稳运行;

河南地区终端市场需求疲软,加之周边市场水泥价格下跌影响,近日水泥成交价格继续松动下调20-30元/吨

华北地区

河北石家庄地区一些主导企业月初曾尝试推涨水泥价格30-40元/吨,终端需求表现疲软,实际落实有待观察;

北京、天津地区需求弱势,水泥价格跌幅较大;山西地区市场总体稳定,企业报价大稳小动;

内蒙古中部地区民用市场形势较为严峻,水泥价格小幅松动下滑20-30元/吨

西南地区

四川地区近期阴雨天气较多,市场需求销量疲软,月初广元、巴中、广安等地下调水泥价格20-30元/吨,凉山州下调30-50元/吨

重庆本地市场整体变化不大,主城区域部分企业报价小幅下调10-20元/吨

云南地区水泥价格相对较低,企业经营压力较大,加之省内周边市场涨价带动,企业涨价意愿强烈,月初大理、丽江、昆明、普洱、曲靖、昭通等地上调水泥价格30-50元/吨,实际执行不一;

贵州市场需求依旧低迷,水泥价格较前一周变化不大。

西北地区

陕西关中地区受周边市场低价水泥冲击影响,企业销售压力加大,月初西安、咸阳、铜川等关中地区水泥价格继续走低20-30元/吨

1日起,甘肃兰州、白银、临夏、甘南等多地水泥价格通知上涨10元/吨,兰州地区落实情况较好,临夏、甘南等地尚未见落实;

宁夏地区水泥价格前期持续下跌至成本线,为改善运营质量,7日起区域上调水泥价格10-20元/吨,本轮推涨实际落实情况有待观察;青海、新疆地区水泥价格大稳小动。

东北地区

黑吉地区受部分原材料价格恢复性上调带动,加之前期区域水泥价格已跌至相对低位,企业经营压力较大,7日起黑龙江哈尔滨和吉林长春、吉林、白山等多地尝试通知上调水泥价格40-70元/吨,执行待观察;

辽宁地区本地市场需求不足,价格低位维稳。

后市预测:终端需求恢复有限,市场情绪较为低迷,价格上涨难度较大,预计本周水泥价格或仍将延续弱势。

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Correlation

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