As far as China's current energy structure is concerned, during the peak season of summer energy consumption, the stability of power supply still needs to be underpinned by the supply of electricity and coal, that is to say, the two are complementary. So is there much pressure on coal and electricity supply during the summer peak period this year? The latest national power supply and demand situation forecast issued by
China Electricity Union did not adjust the annual growth rate of electricity consumption, but pointed out that the power supply and demand situation in the southern region was tight in the second quarter. During the summer peak period, the power supply and demand situation in East China, Central China and South China is tight, and the power supply and demand in North China, Northeast China and Northwest China are basically balanced.
Taking East China as an example, the Seminar on the Analysis and Forecast of China's Power Supply and Demand Situation in 2023 held at the end of April also pointed out that the highest power load in East China is expected to reach 397.25 million kilowatts this summer, an increase of 32.35 million kilowatts over the same period of last year, an increase of 8.86% over the same period of last year, which is significantly higher than national growth rate of 6% -8% predicted at the meeting.
As we all know, East China Power Grid provides power supply services for Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui and Fujian provinces and cities. The area under its jurisdiction is located in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River. It is not only a major industrial power consumption province, but also a relatively densely populated area. Moreover, these provinces are basically net transfer provinces of electricity. Ke Zongjian, director of the Climate Prediction Office of
the National Climate Center, said that according to relevant data and model predictions, China's climate situation in this year's flood season is general to deviation, with both drought and flood; In summer, there are two rainy belts in the north and south, and the precipitation in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is obviously less.
This means that the probability of the Yangtze River Basin this year will continue last year's high temperature and little rain weather, on the one hand, it is not conducive to the increase of hydropower, on the other hand, it will promote a substantial increase in residential electricity consumption, it is possible that during the midsummer of 2022, air-conditioning power consumption will account for more than half of the power grid load, which will promote the further expansion of the difference between peak and valley power consumption. It brings challenges to the safe operation of the power grid.
From the perspective of the installed capacity structure of the areas under the jurisdiction of East China Power Grid, taking Jiangsu, a major power province, as an example, Jiangsu is both a major power consumption province and a major power generation province. By the end of February 2023, the installed capacity of new energy power generation in Jiangsu reached 52.9406 million kilowatts, ranking first in East China, with the installed capacity accounting for more than 32%. Obviously, the proportion of thermal power in Jiangsu Province is still in an absolute advantage. In the peak season of energy consumption, the role of thermal power directly affects the stability of power supply. Whether thermal power can "take the lead" depends mainly on the amount of coal supply.
Coal supply is sufficient
, and the current coal market supply situation is relatively loose. On the one hand, under the influence of the domestic policy of increasing production and guaranteeing supply, the production of coal mines in the place of origin is normal, and the supply of coal in the market is sufficient. In the first quarter, China produced 1.15 billion tons of coal, an increase of 5.5% over the same period last year, and continued to maintain a steady growth trend.
On the other hand, the input of imported coal continues to increase, and the substitution effect on domestic coal is more obvious. Data show that from January to April this year, China imported 6000 tons of coal 14247, an increase of 88.8% over the same period last year.
In addition, since the beginning of this year, the domestic demand side is in an overall weak situation. The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the current economic recovery is still not optimistic. The overall supply of steel, cement and other industries is adequate, but the demand is less than expected. It can be said that at present, the supply of coal market has increased substantially, and the trend of demand continuing to weaken has been very obvious.
According to the inventory situation in the middle and lower reaches, the overall inventory of northern ports continues to accumulate, reaching a new high since mid-April. According to the current growth rate, the overall coal storage of northern ports will exceed 30 million tons in the latter half of this month, reaching a record high, and some ports may face the dilemma of port evacuation again.
From the perspective of the terminal market, the daily consumption of coastal power plants has recovered to more than 1.7 million tons this week, but it is still at the off-season level, while the inventory and the available days of coal storage are at a high level. With the long-term support and the supplement of imported coal, the power plants are still not enthusiastic about the purchase of high-priced market coal.
Furthermore, even though the recent news of tightening supply in the producing areas has continued, the production capacity of open-pit mines in Inner Mongolia has declined, and some coal mines in Shaanxi have been shut down due to the convening of important meetings, a large coal enterprise has recently stopped purchasing coal from outside, which reflects the current coal supply in the market. There is no need to supplement the purchased coal.
Although at present, the water level of the Three Gorges Reservoir is still low and the drought in Yunnan is still continuing, according to the meteorological forecast and the recent changes in the water regime of the Three Gorges Dam, the additional hydropower in the southern region is expected to be further strengthened in the later period.
At the same time, with the successive completion and commissioning of ladder power stations in major river basins, the joint commissioning will be more smooth, which is conducive to the increase of power generation. Taking the upper reaches of the Yangtze River as an example, the new pattern of "joint regulation of six reservoirs" in the Yangtze River Basin (referring to the joint regulation of six cascade hydropower stations in the main stream of the Yangtze River operated and managed by the Yangtze River Power) will greatly enhance the operating efficiency of the Yangtze River Power. Zhang Xingliao, director and general manager of Yangtze Power, said that it was conservatively estimated that the "six-reservoir joint commissioning" could increase power generation by 6 billion to 7 billion degrees annually. In the first quarter of this year, the "six reservoirs joint regulation" increased about 1.5 billion degrees of power generation, and the first quarter belongs to the dry season.
In this way, in the summer of 2023, there is still a possibility that the additional hydropower and its squeeze and substitution for thermal power will exceed expectations.
In addition, Ouyang Changyu, Deputy Engineer of State Grid Co., Ltd., Executive Director (President) of State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., and Secretary of the Party Committee, also pointed out that despite the possibility of tight local power supply this summer, with the efforts of all parties, we are still sure to ensure energy security. Wang Kai, Deputy Engineer of East China Branch of
State Grid, pointed out that in terms of power supply guarantee and low-carbon transformation, we should give full play to the advantages of "big power grid", pay close attention to the situation of DC sending end resources, supply and demand, do everything possible to increase purchases nationwide, and make full use of the complementary advantages of load characteristics to help each other in the region. At the same time, we will implement long-term hydropower transactions in Sichuan, Northwest China to East China transactions, North China and East China DC transactions, carry out interruptible medium- and long-term transactions, sign long-term agreements, stabilize supply and demand, promote the construction of DC supporting power supply at the sending end, comply with the national distribution scheme of trans-regional DC, and ensure stable and full transmission of trans-regional DC in accordance with the planned capacity. In addition, the State Grid East China Branch will also promote load management and strengthen new energy consumption.
To sum up, the balance of power supply and demand is still facing many challenges in the summer of this year, but from the forecast of the national power consumption growth by various associations and institutions, the pressure may be relatively small; from the perspective of coal, it may be the year with the smallest pressure of guaranteeing supply in recent years.
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