"Generally speaking, real estate is the pillar industry of China's economy in the long run, and we should remain optimistic in the short term.". But at the same time, we should be prepared for the contraction of real estate scale. On the morning of March 15, the "2023 China Cement Industry Summit" hosted by China Cement Network was successfully held. Yang Kewei, deputy general manager of Yiju Kerui Information Group, brought a brilliant report on the theme of "The Impact of the Current Real Estate Industry Situation on the Cement Industry".
Yang Kewei said that the sales scale of the real estate industry has stopped falling optimistically this year, and the weak recovery and the slowdown of turnover are still the main theme. He predicted that the first quarter is expected to be a partial Xiaoyangchun, the second half of the year is expected to recover as a whole, and the development trend of low before and high after the whole year will be maintained. In the future, the pace of urbanization will slow down, and the real estate industry will enter the downward channel of the big cycle and the new low of the five small cycles.
(2) Continue to promote the new urbanization with people as the core. Adhering to the orientation that houses are used for living, not for speculation, we should establish and implement a long-term mechanism for real estate, expand the supply of affordable housing, promote the construction of long-term rental housing market, stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations, and implement policies according to the city to promote the healthy development of the real estate market. Renovation of old residential areas in cities and towns 16.
③ While seeing the achievements of development, we are also aware that the current development is facing many difficulties and challenges. There are many risks in the real estate market, and some small and medium-sized financial institutions are exposed to risks. Suggestions for
this year's work: effectively prevent and resolve the risks of high-quality leading real estate enterprises, improve the situation of assets and liabilities, prevent disorderly expansion, and promote the steady development of the real estate industry. Strengthen the construction of housing security system, support rigid and improved housing demand, and solve the housing problems of new citizens and young people.
In addition, there is no mention of "no speculation in housing" in the work proposal of the Report on the Work of the Government, but it does not mean that this position has been shaken, on the contrary, "no speculation in housing" has become the basic follow of the basic housing system and long-term mechanism, and will be consistently adhered to.
Moreover, the theme of Report on the Work of the Government is in line with the articles published by the General Secretary of Qiushi magazine. First of all, we should focus on resolving the risks of the real estate industry. Guarantee the main body of high-quality market and so on, and keep the bottom line of no systemic risk. Secondly, we should implement precise policies according to the city and focus on expanding effective demand. In the medium and long term, we should adhere to the orientation of "no speculation in housing" and transform to a new development model.
II.
Four principles for stabilization and recovery: ① adhere to the positioning of "no speculation in housing"; ② vigorously support rigid demand and improve demand; ③ prevent market ups and downs; ④ promote high-quality development of the industry.
2023 housing construction work should focus on three aspects:
stabilizing the pillars: stabilizing the two pillar industries of construction and real estate. Real estate is to adhere to city-specific policies, and to increase the supply of affordable rental housing and the construction of long-term rental housing. Risk
prevention: grasp the two ends with the middle, and defuse the risk by precise bomb disposal. Grasp high-quality housing enterprises, support high-quality state-owned enterprises and private enterprises equally, grasp dangerous housing enterprises, help self-help and deal with them strictly in accordance with the law and regulations.
Benefit people's livelihood: let the people live in better houses. Ma Jiantang, former Party Secretary of the Development Research Center of
the State Council, said that first, we should consolidate the good momentum of the real estate market: housing and related consumption account for a high proportion of residents' consumption. We should continue to implement the measures already introduced by the central government to stabilize the real estate market, alleviate the liquidity difficulties of real estate development enterprises in various ways, and encourage rigid and improved housing consumption demand. In short, we must stabilize the real estate market.
Second, it is necessary to stabilize the income of ordinary people: it is necessary to stabilize the income of low-income groups and disadvantaged groups. Without income, there will be no consumption. To restore and expand consumption, we must first restore and increase income, especially the disposable income of residents.
Third, it is necessary to encourage childbearing and stabilize the total population by increasing the consumption demand of women of childbearing age, pregnant and lying-in women, and infants and young children.
Three Policy outlook: Fully withdraw from restrictive policies and resolve enterprise risks
in a multi-pronged manner. First, fully withdraw from administrative measures and follow up
with economic support. Fully relax the four restrictions: cancel the purchase restrictions in the third and fourth tiers, partially relax the restrictions in the first and second tiers, cancel the purchase of houses and loans, reduce the down payment ratio, liberalize the price limits of luxury houses, and completely cancel the restrictions on sales. Fiscal and tax incentives will be
implemented: real estate transaction taxes and fees such as deed tax and value-added tax will be reduced or exempted, housing subsidies will be granted, especially for families with two or three children and all kinds of talents, and mortgage interest will be deducted from personal income tax.
Second, in the short term, the necessity of reduce registration and cut interest rate has declined, but the possibility of structural support, especially reduce registration and cut interest rate, has declined
in the near future; monetary policy has gradually returned from loose to neutral, and the possibility and necessity of comprehensive reduce registration and cut interest rate in the short term are not great.
Structural tools continue to work hard: the task of guaranteed delivery is still the same, and structural tools such as guaranteed delivery loans are expected to continue to work hard.
Differentiated housing credit support will continue: differentiated housing credit support policies such as the dynamic adjustment mechanism of the lower limit of mortgage interest rate will not be withdrawn in the short term.
Third, we took a multi-pronged approach to help enterprises alleviate difficulties
, strengthen sales returns, and optimize capital supervision; market recovery, sales returns protection is fundamental, new and old projects pre-sale funds supervision scale is more detailed. Implement policies
for enterprises to lengthen the deleveraging process: support real estate enterprises with net assets to speed up asset disposal, reduce their interest costs, and promote the implementation of debt restructuring for insolvent real estate enterprises.
Policy support, subsidies still need to increase: the actual support is also increased, interest rate cuts, discounts, etc., the weaker the greater the loss, balance the interests of creditors.
Four In February, the turnover of new houses increased by about 50% compared with the same period last year, 10% compared with March last year, 2% compared with the same period last year in February, and 42%
compared with 21 years. The pace and intensity of new housing supply was significantly weaker than recovery in demand, falling 26% year-on-year in the first two months and 54%
year-on-year in March last year. First-line supply constraints decline but the temperature is maintained, Hangzhou doubles, Tianjin, Nanning and Huizhou highlight
seven. Second-hand residential transactions increased by 64%, a cumulative increase of 32% in the first two months, nearly 20 months since the high point of
8. Second-hand housing is expected to diverge greatly, and the number of listings has also increased significantly after the market warms up, and the follow-up sustainability remains to be observed
. In the first two months, the land transaction scale was at a historical low, the premium rate was low, the auction rate was high, and it has not yet recovered
From January to February, only the sales amount threshold of TOP10 real estate enterprises increased by 25% year-on-year, the cumulative performance of more than 40% of the top 100 real estate enterprises increased year-on-year, and the number of enterprises whose cumulative performance increased by more than 30% year-on-year reached 27.
. The scale of land investment returned to 12 years ago. Impact on new construction, new housing supply and total
transaction volume 
five." 12 key real estate enterprises with the ability to develop normally can continue to pay attention to
six new cities. Seventy percent of the housing enterprises have a large delivery gap, and the accelerated completion and increased delivery in 2023 will continue
. Nearly 70% of the TOP50 housing enterprises are expected to deliver less than 1
% of the annual delivery ratio (the estimated delivery area in 2022/the full-caliber sales area in 2020). Among the top 50 real estate enterprises in 2022, 44 enterprises published the delivery data in the first half of the year, of which 68% of the real estate enterprises had a delivery ratio of 1. At the same time, nearly 30% of the real estate enterprises had a delivery ratio of less than 0.
While the delivery of some real estate enterprises was relatively low, the delivery gap was large and the delivery pressure was prominent.
For example, the delivery area of China Evergrande in the first half of 2022 is 15.61 million square meters, and the estimated annual delivery volume is about 5463.
In addition, the delivery ratio of Xuhui Group, Longguang Group, Aoyuan Group, Jiazhaoye and other real estate enterprises is less than 0. Some real estate enterprises, such as Greentown, Binjiang, Merchants and Huafa, have sufficient delivery volume. Delivery ratio greater than 1.
Eight Urbanization slowed down, the industry began to enter the right channel of the big cycle, and five rounds of small cycles reached a new low
of nine. In the next ten years, the incremental demand for housing in the whole industry will still reach about
10 billion square meters. Seven cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu and Chongqing/four regional growth poles will be formed, and the scale will focus on 20
cities and 11 cities. Housing Increment: Future Improvement Demand Becomes the Main Growth Space
of the Industry 12. Stock update: the national housing is nearly 40 billion square meters. Built + under construction + to be built per capita up to about
50 ㎡ 
Xiv. By 2025, the scale of the pension industry will exceed 12 trillion yuan. Real estate scale exceeds 3 trillion
< IMG SRC = "https://img7.ccement.com/richtext/img/92qbbtg7hao1684137410730., but at the same time, we should be prepared for the contraction of real estate scale.".
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