2022 may be the most difficult year in the three-year fight against the epidemic.
The macro situation is changeable, the external economy is complex, the endogenous power is not strong, and the enthusiasm is declining . Three years of fighting the epidemic has worn down people's enthusiasm, and in the wave of involution, the state of "lying flat" has gradually spread. As far as the sand and gravel industry is concerned, the centralized release of large-scale production capacity, the accelerated transfer of new large-scale mining rights, and the growing volume of the supply side have long caused concern in the industry. As the central and state-owned enterprises accelerate the layout of the sand and gravel plate, the competition for mining rights is becoming more and more fierce in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and other popular areas.
With the adjustment of epidemic prevention policy and the full liberalization of economy and trade, can economic vitality be released quickly? Can people regain their enthusiasm for investment and consumption? The war between Russia and
Ukraine has not stopped, the game between big powers is intensifying, and the international situation is becoming more and more complex. The endogenous power and demand of domestic economy are insufficient , and many people are confused about the future development. After three years of anti-epidemic pressure, people's enthusiasm for consumption and private economy has been greatly hit, and the endogenous power and demand vitality are insufficient . At the beginning of December
2022, just after the release of the epidemic, the governments of Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Guangdong and other places took the lead in joining enterprises to participate in overseas exhibitions and conduct business negotiations, and charter flights to sea once became a hot topic . The biggest barriers to trade and migration appear to have been broken down. After the liberalization of
epidemic prevention and control, a series of favorable measures , such as restarting the economy, population mobility, stimulating enthusiasm, demand recovery, landing projects and optimizing credit, will be accelerated, and economic confidence will bottom out.
2. The industry policy has been further improved, the mining right of sand and gravel has been paid more attention, and more safeguard measures have been introduced .
In recent years, the importance of sand and gravel industry has been increasing . From the number and content of relevant guidance plans, the competent authorities have formulated a series of policies to solve the problems faced by the development of the industry. The original vague boundaries are gradually becoming clear, and the problems of constraints are constantly being solved. In November
2022, the Ministry of Natural Resources issued the Notice on the Guarantee of Mining Land, which calls for multi-channel and differentiated protection of reasonable demand for mining land, ensuring the safety of energy and resources supply, and solving the long-standing problem of large-scale land use for sand and gravel enterprises.
In the future, as the value created by the sand and gravel industry is more deeply excavated, it is believed that more favorable policies will be introduced one after another.
3. Industrial concentration was further enhanced, and large enterprise projects were put into operation at an accelerated pace.
Industrial concentration reflects the competition and maturity of the industry to a certain extent. In recent years, the sand and gravel industry has developed from a straggler to a regular army, and a number of leading enterprises have gradually emerged.
Large enterprises are rapidly laying out the sand and gravel aggregate plate. According to the public data, the aggregate production capacity of Huaxin is nearly 270 million tons (data in March 2022); by the end of 2022, the annual aggregate production capacity of China Power Construction is nearly 500 million tons ; Conch plans to reach 300 million tons of production capacity by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan; According to the incomplete statistics of the aggregate network, the production capacity target of New Tianshan Cement in 2025 is 5. year, large enterprises such as China Power Construction, China National Building Materials, Huaxin, China Resources, Huizhou Trading and Investment, and Richangsheng have put large-scale aggregate production lines into operation. Industry concentration will be greatly improved .
4. Large-scale mines were put into operation at an accelerated pace, resulting in an imbalance between supply and demand of sand and gravel and a downward price. In September
2022 , Huaxin 100 million tons line, the world's largest sand and gravel production base, was officially put into operation , and a batch of aggregate projects with an annual output of 5 million tons or even 10 million tons were put into operation one after another, and this trend will continue. Since the fourth quarter of
2021, the price of sand and gravel aggregates in the Yangtze River Basin has been declining all the way, and it began to rise slowly in the fourth quarter of 2022, but it has not reached the expected level . Sluggish market demand and insufficient start-up volume are the main factors. At the same time, the enterprises are underemployed, and the survival of small sand and gravel enterprises is becoming more and more difficult . At the end of
2022, the price of sand and gravel in the Yangtze River Basin was lower than that at the beginning of the year. If there is no special change, the market price of sand and gravel aggregate will not increase too much in 2023.
5. The competition for sand and gravel in the Yangtze River Basin/Dawan District will intensify, and the phenomenon of overcapacity will be further highlighted.
In 2022, large/super-large sand and gravel mining rights are frequently issued in various regions, and the competition for mineral resources in the hot regions, mainly in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, is becoming more and more fierce. In areas with strong demand for traditional sand and gravel, the explosive growth of supply will further break the balance. Among the newly sold mining rights in
2022, the annual new production capacity of Guangdong and Hubei exceeded 3. Under the relative balance of supply and demand in the market, the impact of new production capacity on the regional market can be predicted.
At the same time, the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta have developed water systems and strong logistics circulation. In addition to the self-built wharfs of sand and gravel enterprises in the coastal areas along the Yangtze River, the region is also accelerating the construction of transportation networks such as freight ports and wharfs. The higher price of sand and gravel in the highland of demand will attract the inflow of aggregate products from underdeveloped areas, and the supply-demand relationship will be further unbalanced.
6. With the decrease of profit margin, sand and gravel enterprises should pay attention to energy consumption and cost control.
In 2022, large-scale sand and gravel production lines around the country will continue to be put into operation, but the production capacity of the super-large sand and gravel production lines that have been put into operation has not been (fully) released, and the impact on the market is limited . As far as the Yangtze River Basin is concerned, in October 2022, the annual output of 30 million tons of Dengjiashan project of China Building Materials was officially put into operation, but in that year, its aggregate was mainly supplied to the internal companies of China Building Materials System and had not yet been sold to the market; After putting into production, Huaxin's 100 million tons of line products were only sold in small batches in that year, and large-scale sales will be reflected in 2023. It is known that many large-scale production lines have been put into operation in the first half of this year.
With the successive production of these large-scale production lines and the release of production capacity, it can be predicted that the competition in the sand and gravel market in the Yangtze River Basin will become more intense in 2023. Under the condition that the mining cost and investment cost remain unchanged, the market price and sales volume may be reduced to a certain extent. Sand and gravel enterprises will pay more attention to the improvement of production process, as well as the control of energy consumption and cost, so as to reduce production costs and expand the profit space of enterprises.
7. The polarization of sand and gravel industry is serious, showing the "Matthew effect".
As a mineral resource, the development of sand and gravel aggregate industry is very different, and this difference has continued to expand in recent years .
As we all know, the price of sand and gravel aggregate, market demand and enterprise profits are closely related to regional economic development. The more developed the region is, the higher the market price of sand and gravel aggregate is, the greater the market demand is, and the more profitable the enterprise is, and vice versa. This is also the key reason for the fierce competition for sand and gravel mining rights in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta.
In recent years, thanks to the ecological and environmental protection dividends of the industry, regular sand and gravel enterprises in economically developed regions have made huge profits, and are willing to invest more funds to improve production technology, optimize production processes, improve environmental protection measures, and even build smart mines. Sand and gravel enterprises have improved their production capacity and quality in an all-round way. However, after the economically underdeveloped regions put the past profits into production and transformation, the regional market demand is sluggish, the price of sand and gravel is not high, and even the normal operation of enterprises can not be maintained.
8. The development direction of high-quality sand and gravel remains unchanged, and high-quality aggregate is still the blue ocean market.
Since the healthy and orderly development of the sand and gravel industry with high quality, the sand and gravel industry has ushered in an unprecedented stage of development.In 2022, provinces and municipalities across the country issued guidance on high-quality development of sand and gravel according to their own actual conditions. In October 2022, when the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China was held successfully, General Secretary Xi Jinping stressed that high-quality development is the primary task of building a socialist modern country in an all-round way. It can be predicted that all walks of life will work hard around high-quality development in the future. In November of the same year, 18 departments jointly issued a document to promote the improvement of building quality, and high-quality sand and gravel were formally written into the central action plan.
In 2022, the sand and gravel industry is most concerned about the sluggish market demand and overcapacity. The release of a large number of new mineral energy is bound to have a greater impact on the market. However, the market space for fine sand and gravel aggregates is huge . Compared with the increasingly fierce competition in the ordinary stone market, the fine aggregate is still the blue sea market . The demand for large-scale projects and key projects is even increasing. Downstream commercial mixing enterprises pay more attention to production cost control , and the importance of sand and gravel quality will be further recognized. Many knowledgeable people in the industry call for the production of high-quality sand and gravel aggregates to promote the high-quality development of the industry.
9. State-owned enterprises and central enterprises accelerated the implementation of the dual-carbon action, and accelerated the construction of smart mines/smart factories.
SASAC has clearly incorporated the "double carbon" work into the assessment and evaluation system of central enterprises, and energy saving and emission reduction has become the key words of major central enterprises, especially in the mining field. At the end of October
2022, nine departments jointly issued the Implementation Plan for Establishing and Improving the Standard Measurement System for Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutralization, which comprehensively defines the improvement of energy conservation, new energy and renewable energy utilization.
Mine intellectualization and digitalization can help mining enterprises to make up for the talent gap in the sand and gravel industry, improve mine production management, reduce safety accidents in mining areas, improve operational efficiency, refine cost management, more scientifically manage the whole life cycle of equipment, reduce the comprehensive cost of mines, and help to achieve the goal of double carbon emission reduction. In the past two years, new large-scale sand and gravel mines have taken intelligent mines as an important reference standard. Large enterprises such as China Building Materials, China Power Construction, China Resources, Huaxin and Zhejiang Jiaotong are also accelerating the intelligent transformation of existing mines and promoting the construction of green intelligent mines for new projects.
At the same time, the competent government departments are also accelerating. At the end of March 2023, the second batch of 15 pilot projects of intelligent green mines in Zhejiang were completed, and more mining enterprises will participate in the construction of intelligent green mines in the future.
Intelligent factory is the foundation of intelligent mine construction, and it is also the fastest link in the whole intelligent industry chain. In 2023, there will be a large number of advanced smart factories in the sand and gravel industry.
10. New technologies and new products are iterated and promoted, and more and more customized equipment are used for the project.
In recent years, thanks to the high requirements and huge market share of the sand and gravel industry, domestic equipment has continuously increased investment in research and development, and the speed of new products has been accelerated.
With the continuous improvement of market and user requirements, the owner's requirements for equipment are becoming more and more diversified. Equipment companies continue to increase investment in R & D costs, including adjusting some of the performance of traditional technologies and developing new products with higher requirements. In 2022, Shunda Heavy Mine has launched a super-large gyratory crusher with an output of 10000 tons per hour, a super-large vibrating screen with an output of 3500 tons per hour, and a large double-shaft self-synchronous elliptical screen 2MOS3675 with an improved screening efficiency.
Many equipment companies say that small changes on the basis of tradition are no longer worth publicizing, and many new products are too late to publicize. There are more and more collision and customized R & D products with the owner units.
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