With the advent of the era of high cost and the serious decline of cement demand, the development of cement industry has gradually entered a bottleneck period, and major cement enterprises are looking for new profit growth points. Sand and gravel aggregate, commercial mixing, new materials, new energy and so on have become breakthroughs for cement enterprises, and more and more cement enterprises are laying out new energy tracks. Why did cement enterprises begin to lay out new energy industries? What is the prospect of the layout of new energy industry?
Recently, Wei Yu, senior analyst of China Cement Network and Cement Big Data Research Institute, made an in-depth analysis of the current layout and prospects of cement enterprises in the new energy industry at the "China Cement Industry Green Development Summit Forum and Ultra-clean Emission Technology Exchange Conference" sponsored by China Cement Network.
Wei Yu said that under the background of unprecedented cost pressure and declining demand for cement, the strategy of "cement + new energy" prevails. At present, the total investment of cement enterprises in the field of new energy exceeds 100 billion yuan, and the average annual investment accounts for about 20-30% of the industry's profits. The highest proportion is photovoltaic (97%) and polysilicon (65%). At present, the most widely used is to invest in photovoltaic power plants, because of its low entry threshold, and mainly to reduce carbon as the main purpose, with the "zero purchase of electricity" strategy proposed by cement enterprises. Wei Yu pointed out that it is optimistically expected that the cumulative installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic in cement industry will reach 7.2G W in 2030, with a compound growth rate of 28.53%, accounting for 0.5% of the total installed capacity in China, and a cumulative investment of 20-36 billion. & nbsp; & nbsp;
I. Transformation Background of Cement Enterprises and New Energy Distribution Achievements & nbsp; & nbsp; In 2020, carbon neutrality and carbon peak have become the common goal of the world. According to the International Energy Agency, the proportion of renewable energy will reach more than 70% in the future. And after 2021, the domestic coal supply and demand imbalance, the price has been rising, the cement industry formally entered the era of high cost, the use of photovoltaic, wind power instead of coal, for cement enterprises to reduce carbon and cost. In addition, the decline in cement demand is also forcing enterprises to develop the second profit growth point. The layout of new energy industry has become one of the important directions for the transformation and development of cement enterprises.
It is understood that at present, more than 10 cement enterprises are involved in the green energy related industries of wind and solar hydrogen storage, with a total investment budget of about 130 billion yuan. & nbsp; & nbsp;
The photovoltaic industry is the industry that enterprises are most involved in. In recent years, many cement enterprises are laying out distributed photovoltaic, the number of photovoltaic power plant projects is large, and the entry threshold is low. The investment in other sectors, such as silicon materials, silicon wafers, batteries and components, is relatively small, mainly because of its huge investment, especially in silicon materials. Wei Yu said that from the current development situation of cement enterprises in the field of new energy, cement enterprises entering the photovoltaic industry are mainly divided into two categories: one is the application of distributed photovoltaic, with carbon reduction as the main purpose, mainly with the demand of "zero purchase of electricity", which occupies the majority in quantity; the other is to enter the main photovoltaic industry chain and develop the second growth curve. & nbsp; & nbsp;
II. Prospects of Cement Enterprises in New Energy Distribution & nbsp; & nbsp;
In 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration officially issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for Modern Energy System", which set a clear goal for the construction of China's modern energy system by 2025. According to statistics, 25 provinces have announced the target of new wind power and photovoltaic installation during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, totaling more than 579.37 GW. In recent years, affected by the outbreak of geopolitics, the energy storage industry has sprung up. 2022 is known as the year of energy storage explosion by the industry, and the process of integration of photovoltaic and storage is accelerating. Some insiders believe that the photovoltaic industry can maintain its prosperity for at least 5 to 10 years. & nbsp; & nbsp;
Cumulative installed capacity of various types of electricity from 2010 to 2027 & nbsp; & nbsp; Forecast of various types of electricity sources from 2030 to 2050 & nbsp; & nbsp; PV industry. In 2022, the cumulative installed capacity of PV in the world exceeded 1 TW, of which the cumulative installed capacity in China was 392.44 GW. With the continuous development of the photovoltaic industry, the installed capacity of large-scale centralized power plants has slowed down, and the proportion of distributed photovoltaic has increased significantly, reaching about 60% in 2022, with the rapid rise of industrial and commercial distribution. At the same time, household photovoltaic is also developing rapidly. Wei Yu pointed out that it is optimistically expected that the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic in cement industry will reach 7.2G W in 2030, with a compound growth rate of 28.53%, accounting for 0.5% of the total installed capacity in China, and a cumulative investment of 20-36 billion. & nbsp; & nbsp;
Energy storage. Relevant data show that by the end of 2022, the total installed capacity of power energy storage projects in operation in China is 59.8 gigawatts, accounting for 25% of the total global market, with an annual growth rate of 38%. New energy storage continued to develop at a high speed, with the cumulative installed capacity exceeding 10 GW for the first time, reaching 13.1 GW/27.1 GWh. Twenty-six provinces and municipalities in China have planned the installation target of new energy storage during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a total scale of nearly 67 gigawatts. Wei Yu pointed out that the current development of energy storage in China is mainly policy-driven, and the business model is not clear. At present, the main mode to achieve profitability is industrial and commercial distribution through peak-valley arbitrage, while the long-term development needs in the future depend on policy support, technology iteration, manufacturing cost reduction and so on. & nbsp; & nbsp;
Cumulative installed capacity of China's new energy storage market & nbsp; & nbsp; In addition, Wei Yu said that hydrogen energy, like energy storage, is in its infancy, facing the dilemma of high cost and immature technology, but its future development space is huge. & nbsp; & nbsp;
Finally, Wei Yu said that there are both opportunities and challenges for cement enterprises to transform into the new energy industry: & nbsp; & nbsp; First, the photovoltaic industry market is mature and highly concentrated, and the risk of overcapacity is imminent. Enterprises entering the photovoltaic market have mature models and experience to refer to, the risk is relatively controllable, and the technology change period has entered the best time, such as the conversion of photovoltaic cells from P-type to N-type.
Second, the future market space of energy storage and hydrogen energy is large, but the cost is relatively high, the commercialization has just started, and the technology route is not yet mature. If you want to choose to enter such an industry, cement enterprises need to spend more time to accompany them to grow. It can be said that high risk and high return coexist. The
third is the trend of integration. The trend of integration of photovoltaic industry chain, wind and solar hydrogen storage and wind and solar hydrogen storage vehicles is becoming more and more obvious, which puts forward higher requirements for capital, technology, management, talent and other aspects of enterprises involved.
浙公网安备33010802003254号