recently approved a Congressional Review Act (CRA) to repeal the two-year moratorium on new solar tariffs announced by President Biden in January 2022, hoping to build its domestic photovoltaic manufacturing base and reduce its dependence on Chinese supplies. Strengthen the competitiveness of local enterprises. If enacted, the bill will directly trace imported solar modules to the polysilicon sector, and SEIA expects that 4G W solar projects will be cancelled. At present, China has obvious advantages in the photovoltaic industry chain in the ", with polysilicon production accounting for 86% of the world's total in 2022, silicon wafers accounting for 98%, batteries accounting for 91%, and modules accounting for 84%. It is not only conducive to ensuring the rapid development of China's photovoltaic industry, but also provides an important supply of raw materials for the development of the global photovoltaic industry. Even with the increasingly fierce global competition, on the one hand, China's market advantage is still difficult to surpass in the short term, on the other hand, Chinese enterprises are also actively promoting product competitiveness, laying out overseas industrial chains, improving their own supply chain and production management.
1． Distribution of
global PV industry chain (1) Global polysilicon production capacity and output and distribution
From the perspective of production capacity and output, the polysilicon industry will usher in a period of rapid development after 2020. According to the statistics of the Silicon Branch of the Nonferrous Metals Association, the global polysilicon production capacity in 2022 is 1.315 million tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 96%; the global polysilicon output in 2022 is 938,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 49%; In 2023, with the release of production capacity, it is expected that the production capacity of polysilicon will further grow rapidly, and the global production capacity of polysilicon is expected to reach 368.
From a regional perspective, 1.163 million tons of the 1.315 million tons of production capacity in 2022 will be concentrated in China, accounting for 88%. In the future, with the rapid release of China's regional production and the slow growth of overseas production, the proportion of China's polysilicon production capacity is expected to continue to increase to more than 90% in the short term.
From a regional perspective, the production capacity of silicon wafers in 2022 will be 557.1GW. In 2023, it is expected that the production capacity of silicon wafers will continue to be released rapidly, but the growth rate will slow down. The proportion of overseas production capacity will gradually increase slightly to 3-5%, and China's production capacity still has an absolute advantage.
Cell 567.2G W capacity in 2022 517.
The production capacity of 527.7 modules in 2022 is 477.
From a regional perspective, with the rapid growth of overseas photovoltaic installed capacity, China's installed capacity in 2022 is 87.41 GW, a substantial increase of 59. In the photovoltaic installed sector, China accounts for about 35% of the world's total, which is much smaller than proportion of upstream polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells and components. It shows that a large number of products in the photovoltaic industry chain in China are mainly exported. Other major regions with more PV installed capacity also maintained rapid year-on-year growth: according to the data released by the European Photovoltaic Association, the newly installed PV capacity in the 27 EU countries in 2022 was 41.4G W, an increase of nearly 50% year-on-year, of which Germany ranked first with 7.9 GW of newly installed capacity; According to the survey data of JMK, an Indian photovoltaic consultancy, India installed 13 in 2022. The US photovoltaic market declined against the market due to trade restrictions with China, which hindered the import of key low-cost spare parts and materials in photovoltaic equipment. In 2022, the new installed capacity of solar energy in the United States decreased by 23% compared with the same period last year.
China's batteries were also mainly exported, and the growth rate was more than doubled. China's battery production accounts for 88% of the global output, which also has an obvious advantage. According to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, in 2022, the export volume of solar cells was about US $3.81 billion, and the export volume was about 23.8GW, with a year-on-year increase of 177.6% and 130% respectively.
China's modules were also mainly exported, and although the growth rate was lower than that of solar cells, it also maintained a high growth rate of 50%. According to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the export volume of modules in 2022 is about 42.36 billion US dollars, and the export volume is about 153.6 GW, which increased by 72.1% and 55% respectively. Europe is the main export area of China, and imports from China in 2022 are 86. 2022 Exports to Asia Pacific 28.3
.
With the rapid development of photovoltaic industry, the intensification of international competition and the high price of traditional energy, the security of upstream raw materials and industrial chain supply chain has been paid more and more attention by all countries. Many countries are actively planning the localization of production and manufacturing and supply chain of photovoltaic industry. For example, the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 plans to invest $30 billion in production tax credits to promote the processing of solar panels and key products in the United States; The EU plans to achieve the goal of a complete 100GW photovoltaic industry chain by 2030, with at least 10% of the key raw material supply, 40% of the key raw material processing and 15% of the key raw material recycling coming from the EU; India announced the "National Plan for High-Efficiency Solar Photovoltaic Modules", which aims to improve the raw material security and local manufacturing of the photovoltaic industry and reduce the dependence on imports of renewable energy from a single country.
Recently, the United States restarted its module anti-dumping strategy, and the House Ways and Means Committee approved a Congressional Review Act (CRA) to repeal the two-year suspension of new solar tariffs announced by President Biden in January 2022, hoping to build its domestic PV manufacturing base and reduce its dependence on China. Strengthen the competitiveness of local enterprises. If the bill is enacted, it will directly trace the imported solar modules to the polysilicon sector, and SEIA expects that 4G W solar projects will be cancelled, or will have an impact on China's export market. According to China's 2022 module export volume of about 153.6GW, 4GW accounts for about 2.
At present, China has obvious advantages in the photovoltaic industry chain, not only the whole industry chain has achieved domestic autonomy and controllability, but also has absolute advantages in industrial support, infrastructure construction and even production technology. Even though the United States, Europe, India and other countries are actively laying out the photovoltaic industry overseas in order to ensure the stability of the supply chain, the infrastructure construction in Southeast Asia and India, which are developing faster, is still not mature enough, and China will still maintain a high market share of about 90% in the short term, which is conducive to ensuring the rapid development of China's photovoltaic industry. It has also made great contributions to the development of the global photovoltaic industry.
However, with the advancement of overseas projects, according to IEA estimates, China's market share will decline in the long run, but it will always account for more than 60%, still occupying the dominant position in the world. To prepare for a
rainy day, Chinese enterprises are also prepared for global competition. From the perspective of products, many photovoltaic enterprises have proposed to reduce costs and increase efficiency, on the one hand, to increase research and development of efficient products, on the other hand, to reduce costs and improve the competitive advantage of enterprises, hoping to improve the competitiveness of their photovoltaic products in the global market. Starting from the industrial layout, many export enterprises are laying out overseas industrial chains to enhance global competitiveness and reduce market risks. For example, Jingao Technologies has silicon wafer, battery and component production capacity of 1.5g W, 3.5g W and 3.5g W in Vietnam, and battery production capacity in Malaysia. Longji Green Energy has silicon wafer, battery and component production capacity of 14.35 GW in Malansia and Vietnam, and plans to increase the production capacity of silicon wafer, battery and component in Malansia and Vietnam to 17.85 GW. The silicon wafer production capacity in Malaysia is expanded to 4. For the traceability policy, some enterprises directly guarantee and divide from the perspective of raw materials, and use overseas polysilicon for the production of export products to ensure that the products meet the buyer's requirements; some enterprises carry out quarantine from the perspective of production plants to ensure that the supply chain and products meet the traceability conditions.
4．
At present, China has obvious advantages in the photovoltaic industry chain, with polysilicon production accounting for 86% of the world's total in 2022, silicon wafers accounting for 98%, batteries accounting for 91%, and modules accounting for 84%, which is not only conducive to ensuring the rapid development of China's photovoltaic industry, but also conducive to the rapid development of China's photovoltaic industry. It also provides an important supply of raw materials for the development of the global photovoltaic industry. Even with the increasingly fierce global competition, on the one hand, China's market advantage is still difficult to surpass in the short term, on the other hand, Chinese enterprises are also actively promoting product competitiveness, laying out overseas industrial chains, improving their own supply chain and production management.
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