2023, the overall demand of the whole country recovered less than expected, coupled with the end of peak staggering in many regions, the supply was enlarged, and the price of cement declined weakly when the supply exceeded the demand . According to the statistics of Cement Big Data Research Institute, cement prices fell in 20 provinces (cities) in April.
In May, the market demand in many places continued to be weak, the shipments of enterprises were not high, and cement prices in Anhui, Zhejiang, Henan and other places declined again. According to the feedback from the market
in Anhui
, the market demand in Anhui has declined due to the May Day holiday and the rainy weather, the shipment volume of enterprises is not high, and the price of cement in the surrounding areas continues to decline. Since May 6, some major manufacturers in Ma'anshan, Huangshan and other places have notified the reduction of cement prices by about 15-20 yuan/ton. According to the feedback from the market
in Jiangsu
, the May Day holiday, together with the impact of rain weather, the terminal market demand is weak, the shipment volume of enterprises is not high, and the inventory is under high pressure. In order to increase sales, some major manufacturers in Nanjing and Zhenjiang areas of Jiangsu Province lowered the price of bulk cement by 15 yuan/ton again on May 6, and the price of bagged cement was temporarily stable. From
August 8 to 9, some major manufacturers in Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou and Nantong, Jiangsu, notified a reduction of cement prices by 15-20 yuan/ton, and some enterprises'transaction prices have fallen back to the level before February's rise. At the same time, on the 8th, some enterprises in Yancheng, Huaian and other places reduced the price of low-standard bulk and various kinds of bagged cement by about 20-40 yuan/ton, and the price of high-standard bulk was temporarily stable.
Shanghai
According to market feedback, since May, the demand performance in Shanghai has been general, the enthusiasm of downstream mixing stations and other enterprises to take goods is not high, coupled with the constant impact of foreign low-cost cement, local enterprises are under great pressure to sell. In order to maintain market share, some major manufacturers in Shanghai notified again on the 8th to reduce the price of various types of cement by about 20 yuan/ton.
Zhejiang
according to market feedback, the May Day holiday and the impact of rain weather, the market demand in many places in Zhejiang is weak, the shipment volume of enterprises is not high, and the cement price of peripheral enterprises continues to decline. In order to increase sales, in recent days, some major manufacturers in Zhejiang have notified the whole province to reduce the price of various types of cement by about 15-30 yuan/ton, and the rest of the industry in the region have followed up. According to market feedback
in Fujian
, the terminal market demand is weak, and some enterprises are not in place to implement the shutdown of kilns, high inventory pressure, and intensified market competition. At the same time, affected by the continuous decline of cement prices in the periphery, the transaction prices of some enterprises in Fuzhou, Sanming, Longyan and Xiamen, Quanzhou and Zhangzhou in Fujian continued to fall by 10-20 yuan/ton from the end of April to the beginning of May. At present, the price reduction of manufacturers varies from place to place, the price difference in some regions has widened, and the market quotation is chaotic.
Henan
according to market feedback, the May Day holiday coupled with the impact of continuous rain weather, construction sites and mixing stations are limited, market demand is weak, enterprise shipments are only about 2-3%. Since the beginning of this month, some manufacturers in the north-central part of Henan Province have successively lowered cement prices by 10-30 yuan/ton, while the rest of the industry is expected to follow suit. At present, the price of enterprises in southern Henan is running steadily after rising, but the inventory pressure is still too high. According to the feedback from the market
in Hunan
, there are more rainy weather in Yueyang area of Hunan recently, the market demand and sales are low, coupled with the impact of low-price cement in the periphery, the market competition intensifies. In order to maintain market share, some leading enterprises in Yueyang area notified on the 8th that the price of bagged cement was lowered by 20-30 yuan/ton, and the price of bulk cement was temporarily stable.
At the same time, the inventory in many places continued to run at a high level. In May, some provinces started to stagger the peak production of cement, and the number of days of kiln shutdown was about 10 days, which helped to alleviate the pressure of rising inventory of cement enterprises and slow down the downward trend of cement prices.
Sichuan Cement Association issued a notice on peak staggering production in May 2023. The notice requires that in May 2023, each clinker production line should stagger peak production for no less than "7 + 3" days, including rigid peak staggering for no less than 7 days before May 20 and peak staggering for no less than 3 days from May 20 to the end of the month. The regional peak-staggering production task in Liangshan Prefecture is controlled by itself. The production task of peak staggering in Quanta area is relatively consistent with that in Chongqing. Before May 17, the days of kiln shutdown shall be revised according to environmental protection and weather conditions.
Jiangxi Cement Association issued the Notice on Staggered Peak Production in May 2023 and Continuous Implementation of the Work Requirements for Making up and Stopping in the First Quarter. "Notice" requires that in May 2023, 48 clinker production lines in Jiangxi Province will have a unified peak staggering production for 5 days, and all peak staggering plans must be fully implemented before May 31. At the same time, for the units that have not completed the peak staggering plan in the first quarter and have not yet completed the suspension in April, they must continue to implement the suspension to ensure that the peak staggering production plan of each unit is fully stopped. Cement clinker enterprises in central and southern
Hebei have stopped kilns for 10 days since April 25, and will continue to carry out peak staggering production tasks in non-heating season after the completion of kiln shutdown.
As for when the market will improve, Li Kunming, an analyst at the Cement Big Data Research Institute, said that the current cement market as a whole is characterized by "weak demand and high inventory", with cement prices falling more and more, and the off-season characteristics are obvious. In the second half of the year, with the gradual stabilization of real estate and the sustained development of infrastructure, it is expected that the demand for cement will improve significantly.
Recently, the relevant person in charge of Jidong Cement Company said that the release of cement demand is expected to gradually develop from the end of the second quarter, among which the demand from infrastructure is worth looking forward to.
Tianfeng Securities believes that the second quarter of the cement industry earnings are expected to show upward turning point.
An industry insider said that since the first quarter, the domestic cement market terminal demand has recovered moderately, and whether the future demand can be released depends on the recovery of the real estate market. In the short term, the domestic cement market is still dominated by weak operation.
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