Looking back at the cement industry in 2022, the output declined, the profit was diluted, the competition intensified, and many cement enterprises'profits dropped sharply or even fell into loss. In the bleak market situation, some cement enterprises began to carry out strategic contraction of the cement market layout: production line construction stranded, selling equity equipment, withdrawing from the cement market, etc., and the cement industry encountered the cold of survival. Weak
demand Cement production hit an 11-year low
. In 2022, affected by the epidemic and weak real estate investment, downstream demand weakened. At the same time, more efforts were made to stagger the peak, and cement production hit the lowest level in nearly 11 years. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in December 2022, the national cement output was 16844 million tons, down 12.3% year-on-year; from January to December 2022, the national cement output was 2117.95 million tons, down 10.8% year-on-year.
In 2022, the cement industry continued the high cost of 2021, but the market did not perform the same "roller coaster" as 2021. While the overall demand for cement declined in 2022, coal prices rose sharply year-on-year, and cement prices fell sharply year-on-year after August, which caused the high cost of cement production to "erode" most of the profits of the cement industry. China Cement Network Cement Big Data Research Institute estimates that the profit of the cement industry in 2022 will be about 70 billion yuan, and the profit of leading enterprises will generally decline by 40%-60%.
In 2021 and 2022, the average price
of P.O42.5 cement in China changed from buying to selling, and the adjustment of the layout and optimization of the stock
of cement enterprises was different from the "buy, buy, buy" and the upsurge of building lines in 2021. Shrinking the front, withdrawing from the market and optimizing the stock assets have become a new strategy for many cement enterprises to cope with the current market shrinkage.
According to incomplete statistics, since this year, three listed companies, Hainan Ruize, Bowen Science and Technology and Jinyuan Stock, have announced their withdrawal from cement business; China Resources Cement, Yunnan Cement Building Materials Group, Wannianqing Cement , Jinchang Cement, Xinxiang Zhenxin Cement and other enterprises listed to transfer the company's equity; Tianshan shares transfer the relevant assets held by a number of cement enterprises; Guizhou Crystal Organic Chemical (Group) Co., Ltd. Miaoling Building Materials Branch is listed to sell 2500t/d cement clinker production capacity index..
At the same time, there are only a handful of capacity replacement projects and new clinker production line projects announced in 2022, and the capacity replacement scheme has been cancelled because the clinker project can not be constructed on schedule. It is reported that many large cement enterprises in China have recently indicated that they will no longer replace production capacity and increase production capacity.
Although the cement market is cold, cement enterprises are also trying to adjust the contradiction between supply and demand by extending peak staggering production, changing market strategy and seizing market share to cope with the sudden changes in the industry. In addition, many cement enterprises have shown great enthusiasm for the extension of the industrial chain and cross-border development, and actively lay out new industries to enhance their competitiveness. At the same time, the development momentum of intellectualization is even stronger, and the low-carbon transformation is accelerating in an all-round way. With the resumption of the
war, the original calm of the cement market was broken
. After the trough in 2015, driven by the structural reform of the supply side, the cement market returned to a rising cycle again, and the industry profits remained high. The competition among enterprises in the industry has also changed from the past tension to an orderly competition and cooperation relationship, especially after the promotion of off-peak production, the contradiction between supply and demand has been reduced, the cement price has remained high, and the orderly market order has gradually formed. However, this "peace" was suddenly broken in 2022.
It is reported that the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, Yunnan-Guizhou, Hubei, Hunan, Anhui and other markets have broken out before the price war, the cement industry "price war" is everywhere, and the market downturn, sharp contradiction between supply and demand is undoubtedly the most fundamental reason. After the serious imbalance between supply and demand in the
cement market led to a large drop in cement prices in various regions, many places launched various measures to further increase the intensity of peak staggering production to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand.
According to the monitoring of China Cement Network Cement Big Data Platform, there are 20 provinces in China that plan to shut down kilns for more than 100 days, including 7 southern provinces, all of which are south-central and southwestern provinces. In terms of the intensity of the shutdown, at least 13 provinces have increased the shutdown time year on year, and most of the provinces that have increased the shutdown time are in the southern region.
Extending the industrial chain + cross-border, cement enterprises are very happy
that when the expansion of the main cement industry is slowing down, aggregate, concrete and assembly building and other related industries have become new profit growth points for cement enterprises. One of the most prominent is the aggregate market. According to the statistics of China Cement Network Cement Big Data Research Institute, Conch, China Resources, Huaxin and China Building Materials continue to invest in mining this year. In the first 11 months of 2022, there are 24 aggregate mines with a turnover of more than 1 billion, with a total turnover of 61 billion, accounting for 26% of cement enterprises.
At the same time, Conch Cement is engaged in agriculture, Century Xinfeng raises pigs, Jinyuan shares enter the field of lithium resources, Shangfeng Cement invests in the new economy, and cement enterprises are also blooming everywhere.
With the increasingly urgent task of "3060" double carbon, China's cement industry has been accelerating the exploration of green and low-carbon circular economy production mode this year, which has made an important contribution to reducing the national carbon emissions. The layout of photovoltaic and other new energy and alternative fuels to promote low-carbon energy transformation in the cement industry is the focus of many cement enterprises in 2022.
Take the new energy project as an example: Conch Cement said that it is expected that by the end of 2022, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation will reach 1 gigawatt, with an annual power generation capacity of 1 billion degrees; Tianshan said that it plans to invest 19 photovoltaic and wind power green energy projects in 2022; Red Lion Cement said it would strive for 12 grid-connected power generation projects by the end of 2022.
Of course, the intelligent upgrade is in full swing, the number of fully enclosed unmanned intelligent delivery system, intelligent laboratory, unmanned mine, intelligent robot inspection, equipment intelligent operation and maintenance, online detection and other full-process intelligent cement plants is increasing and improving day by day. It has realized the integration and development of building materials industry and the new generation of information technology in a wider scope, deeper degree and higher level.
Although the demand for cement has entered the downward channel, the development of the industry has come to the crossroads again. However, in the face of challenges, the cement industry has been actively responding through industrial chain extension, cross-border development, accelerating the elimination of backward production capacity, promoting industrial digitalization, intelligent upgrading and other ways. It is believed that with the joint efforts of all, the cement industry will usher in a new development situation.
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