"Liaoning construction site has not started for two or three months, and the market demand has stagnated." A person in charge of the cement industry in Liaoning for a long time said in an exchange with China Cement Network that the data showed that the cement output of Liaoning from January to October 2022 was 33.9206 million tons, down 19.98% from the same period last year, and the annual cement output is expected to fall by about 20% from the same period last year.
Real estate is one of the main sources of cement demand, and the sluggish real estate market is dragging down Liaoning's cement demand. From January to October in 2022, the investment in real estate development in Liaoning Province was 214.174 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.7%; the 22919 of real estate construction area in Liaoning Province was 0.09 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%, of which, the new construction area was 21.3228 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 46.9%. The shrinking market
in the south has also led to a sharp decline in cement production in Liaoning. In the exchange with the above industry insiders, we learned that the local demand for cement in Liaoning has been maintained at more than 30 million tons in recent years. In the past few years, due to the good demand and high price in the southern market, many Liaoning cement enterprises sold cement to Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai by water transportation, with an export volume of 20 million tons. In recent years, Liaoning's annual cement output has basically maintained about 50 million tons.
"In 2022, not only the demand for cement in Liaoning is weak, but also the Yangtze River Delta market, which is the vane of the national market, is not optimistic, with both volume and price falling.". This has led to a significant reduction in the amount of cement going south. According to the source, the freight from Liaoning to Jiangsu and Zhejiang is about 200 yuan/ton, and the price of southern cement remains above 500 yuan/ton. Only when Liaoning cement goes south can it make a profit. Obviously, the price of cement in East China market in 2022 is not optimistic. According to statistics, only a few cement plants in Liaoning will sell cement to the East China market in 2022, and the total export volume is expected to be only 10% of last year.
It is understood that in 2021, due to the impact of double control of energy consumption, the supply side of cement is limited, and the price of cement in many areas has risen sharply. In 2021, Liaoning kiln enterprises have achieved profits. This year is very different. "Not only the demand has fallen sharply, but also the price of cement is very low. Now the price of P.O42.5 bulk cement is less than 300 yuan a ton.". Most cement enterprises are operating at a loss. An industry insider in Liaoning said. How will Liaoning cement market develop in
2023? The above industry insiders say that 2022 is the most difficult year in the past five years, but it is a good year in the next few years. In the absence of real estate and key projects, Liaoning's cement demand is expected to be lower in 2023 than in 2022.
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