Cement is a typical cyclical industry, and its development trend is closely related to the trend of macro-economy and fixed assets investment. From the experience of foreign development. When the economy enters the stage of rapid growth, with the growth of fixed assets investment mainly in infrastructure construction and real estate investment, the demand for cement grows rapidly, which brings prosperity to the whole industry. Since the
reform and opening up, the domestic economy has developed rapidly, and the real estate market has gradually established and developed. Especially after the housing reform in 1998, the domestic real estate market was formally established, and ushered in a rapid development of more than 20 years.
2000 is the first year to count the total amount of real estate investment in China, which was 498.4 billion yuan in that year. By 2021, the total amount of real estate investment in China will increase to 14. In terms of cement output, the national cement output in 2000 was 597 million tons, to 23.
The prosperity of the real estate industry over the past 20 years has strongly supported the domestic cement market demand, and its market share has reached about 35%. In recent years, in some regional cement markets, the demand for cement brought by real estate even accounts for about 50%.
However, the prosperity of real estate has provided strong support for cement demand, but with the decline of real estate investment, cement demand will inevitably enter the downward channel. In
2022, when the
real estate industry was struggling in the trough, the real estate industry really ushered in the cold winter.
Under the overall tone of "no speculation in housing", the real estate industry is facing unprecedented challenges under the influence of multiple factors, such as the repeated increase of financial policies, the weakening of medium and long-term housing demand momentum, and the lack of market confidence. In terms of
real estate investment, from January to November, the national real estate development investment was 12386.3 billion yuan, down 9.8% from the same period last year; Among them, residential investment was 9401.6 billion yuan, down 9.
In terms of new construction, from January to November 2022, the new housing construction area was 1116.32 million square meters, down 38. Among them, the new residential construction area was 817.34 million square meters, down 39. The new construction area in a single month has decreased by more than 35% for seven consecutive months since April. In November, the new construction area declined from the previous month, and the absolute scale was at the lowest monthly level since 2022. In terms of
sales, according to the data of the Bureau of Statistics, the sales area of commercial housing was 121.25 million square meters, down 23.3% from the same period last year, of which the sales area of residential housing decreased by 26. The area of commercial housing for sale was 552.03 million square meters, an increase of 10 over the same period last year. Among them, the area of residential housing for sale increased by 18. In November, the sales area and amount of commercial housing in China still decreased by more than 20% over the same period last year, and the real estate market sales did not show a significant improvement.
. In terms of second-hand housing prices, from January to November 2022, the prices of second-hand residential buildings in 100 cities declined. In the first half of the year, the second-hand housing prices showed a sideways trend, and in the second half of the year, the downward trend of housing prices was obvious, and the month-on-month decline continued to expand. From January to November 2022, the price of second-hand residential buildings in 100 cities dropped by 0.
Meanwhile, since 2022, the funds in place for real estate enterprises have continued to decline year-on-year, and the sources of funds from January to November have declined year-on-year. From January to November, the 136313 of funds in place of real estate development enterprises was billion yuan, a decrease of 2.5% over the same period last year. Among them, domestic loans were 1582.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.9%; foreign capital utilization was 6.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.6%; self-raised funds were 4899.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.5%; deposits and advance receipts were 4460.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.6%; Personal mortgage loans amounted to 2,187 billion yuan, down 26.
According to Kerui's forecast, there should be only 20 real estate companies with final sales of over 100 billion yuan in 2022. This number increased from 6 in 2015 to 11 in 2016, and doubled to 29 in 2018 on the basis of 16 in 2017. Until 2020, the number of 100 billion housing enterprises has increased to the historical peak, and the number of 100 billion housing enterprises in 2021 is the same as that in 2020, which is 43. This year's number is expected to be "cut in half". In terms of
land transfer, due to the continuous adjustment of the real estate market and the financial pressure of real estate enterprises, the willingness of the government to push land and real estate enterprises to acquire land is insufficient, and the supply and demand of residential land in 300 cities across the country are shrinking significantly. From January to November 2022, the launch and transaction area of residential land in 300 cities across the country decreased by 37.6% and 36.6% respectively.
From January to November 2022, the launch area of residential land in all cities decreased by about 40% and that in second-tier cities decreased by nearly 50%. In terms of transactions, from January to November, a total of 130 million square meters of centralized land supply were traded in 22 cities (including 19 cities in three batches), down 52.8% from 2021, and the land transfer fee was 1.6 trillion yuan. The
cement market continues to be in the doldrums
. As a bulk industrial product with rigid demand, the change in cement market demand is closely related to the trend of the real estate industry.
In addition, according to the survey of China Cement Network on the cement market in various regions of the country, the demand for cement in most regions dropped by more than 15% this year, and even reached 30% in some regions.
Affected by the decline in demand, the problem of overcapacity in the cement industry has become more prominent, and the pressure of market competition has been increasing. At the beginning of 2022, due to the lack of sufficient expectations for the decline in demand and the continuing downturn in the market, price wars even broke out in some hot domestic markets, including the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta. After
entering the peak season in the second half of the year, although cement enterprises around the country continue to issue price increase notices, the actual implementation is not good. Taking Henan as an example, since the second half of the year, it has experienced several rounds of price increases, with a range of 50-60 yuan/ton, but it basically fell back to the original level shortly after the release of the price increase.
Local enterprises said that the serious decline in market demand was the key. Many cement enterprises around Zhengzhou said that the demand for cement has declined by more than 20% this year.
show that, except for individual enterprises such as Qingsong Jianhua and Sichuan Shuangma, The performance of the vast majority of cement listed companies has declined sharply, and the profit of Fujian Cement in the first three quarters has fallen by 183. Conch Cement, as the industry's "gold-sucking king", has also fallen by 44. China Cement Network Cement Big Data Research Institute predicts that due to the decline in demand, the market downturn, and the high cost of energy, the net profit of Conch Cement in the first three quarters has also fallen by 44. The total profit of the cement industry will fall to 70-80 billion yuan this year, down more than 50% from 169.4 billion yuan in 2021.
New construction is not optimistic. The impact of cement demand has just begun
. In the fourth quarter of 2022, in order to promote the stable development of the real estate industry, the national level has introduced heavy policies and measures.
Especially on November 23, the Circular of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission of the People's Bank of China on the Current Financial Support for the Steady and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market ( "Financial Article 16") was officially issued.
"Notice" includes 16 financial measures in 6 aspects, which calls for maintaining stable and orderly real estate financing, actively providing "guaranteed delivery" financial services, actively cooperating with the risk management of trapped real estate enterprises, safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of housing financial consumers in accordance with the law, adjusting some financial management policies in stages, and increasing financial support for housing rental.After the
policy signal was clear, financial institutions immediately increased their credit to high-quality real estate enterprises, and the six major banks began to transfuse blood. Just one day later, by November 24, housing enterprises had received nearly trillion yuan of credit and bond issuance from financial institutions.
However, whether it is the "Sixteen Financial Policies" or other real estate policies, the core is still based on the "guaranteed delivery" and steady development, supporting high-quality real estate enterprises to become bigger and stronger. With the sustained efforts of the "guaranteed delivery" policy, the completed area is expected to gradually improve, thus supporting the development investment, but the impact on the new construction of real estate next year is limited.
On the one hand, the new construction is restricted by the recovery rhythm of the sales side, on the other hand, the large-scale shrinkage of land in the past two years, the high pressure of enterprise funds, and the high scale of saleable inventory also drag down the scale of new construction. 2023 Real estate investment may continue to fall.
In addition, according to the situation of land acquisition, from January to November 2022, the total amount of land acquisition by TOP100 enterprises was 1162.1 billion yuan, the scale of land acquisition decreased by 50.5% compared with the same period last year, and the decline was 0. The amount of land taken by TOP10 enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta is 241.8 billion yuan, ranking first among the four major urban agglomerations and leading the country. Land acquisition by
real estate enterprises is a better leading indicator for new housing construction, while cement demand is in the pre-cycle of real estate development, which is directly affected by the new construction area in the short term (usually developers start new construction within 6 months after land acquisition)
. 50.
In the future, in view of the decline in investment in the real estate industry, the demand for cement will continue to be under pressure, coupled with the serious problem of overcapacity, the market competition environment will be further strained.
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